What a difference a year makes

Ronan Lyons, Economist

4th Jan 2016

Ronan Lyons, Daft's in-house economist, commenting on the latest Daft research on the Irish property market.

The latest figures in this Daft Report confirm that the housing market has levelled off in Dublin, while it is still recovering in most other parts of the country. Inflation in Dublin has fallen from nearly 25% in mid-2014 to less than 3% by the end of 2015, while elsewhere in the country, inflation has risen from 2% to 13% in the same period.

Where does this leave the housing market? A year ago, despite a plethora of Government announcements and policy statements, it was hard to argue that Ireland had a coherent housing strategy. Not least when prices and rents had risen by up to 40% in three years in the capital and housing shortages were emerging everywhere.

Inflation

The housing shortages persist: just 25,000 homes were on the market on December 1st this year, the lowest for this time of year since 2006. Nonetheless, the outlook for the housing market looks much healthier now than it did in 2014. Perhaps most importantly, the mortgage rules mean that whatever else happens, house prices cannot engage in the destructive upward spiral that took place in the decade to 2006.

But more recently other aspects of housing policy have been examined and are starting to change. With an election only months away, it is useful to step back and see the bigger picture on housing policy. There are four main areas where government intervention is needed in the housing market. The first relates to the supply of mortgage credit. As discussed above, this is largely in place now.

The second relates to the supply of private housing: here the government needs to limit construction costs relative to our incomes in the same way mortgage credit is now linked to the real economy.

As 2015 draws to a close, we are beginning to see an understanding on the part of Government that its actions largely determine build costs. The National Competitiveness Council, for example, has recently committed to benchmark the cost of building homes in Dublin and other Irish cities, compared to our peers. This will provide the evidence base for closing the gap between construction costs and the real economy.

In the absence of official figures, it is estimated that a two-bedroom apartment costs roughly €280,000 (excluding land costs), roughly twice the level consistent with the incomes of households that would live in two-bedroom apartments. Thus, requirements regarding basement car parks, lifts, orientation and yes, minimum sizes, are to be welcomed. Remember these are minimums, not targets, and local authorities still have the final say on any particular project.

The third area for government action – supply of public housing – follows directly on from the second. Once you have decided what the minimum cost is for building a home, anyone earning less than this needs a subsidy to give them access to housing. Otherwise, they are being denied their human right to housing. Unfortunately, this is an area where very little change has taken place.

Most and Least Expensive Areas in Ireland

Ultimately, the plethora of current forms of intervention, from rent supplement and HAP to putting families up in hotels, needs to be replaced by a single unified housing-related income top-up. This would then render almost irrelevant the discussion of who is providing the housing – the state or the private sector – and thus prevent the ghettoization of lower-income households.

The final area for government policy relates to land use. In many ways, this is the one area where emergency measures are not required. Land use has been dysfunctional in Ireland for decades, so what's another few years? Sorting out lend rules and the supply of homes, including for low-income households, is enough for the next Government.

But to ensure that decade after decade, land is used well and thus housing is readily available and affordable, a land tax is required. Ireland missed a trick when introducing its Local Property Tax. Many afterwards believed that a land value tax would never happen in Ireland. However, a growing coalition supports the idea. It started with Dublin City Council, who have proposed a vacant site levy.

Housing Stock on the Market

This will be problematic unless applied to all commercial, industrial and development land, though, and more recently both the National Competitiveness Council and the Economic & Social Research Institute have called for a broader land value tax. Ideally, this would replace all development levies, commercial rates and perhaps stamp duties.

The figures contained in this report show that acute supply shortages persist, with the Central Bank rules protecting house prices in Dublin. While lots of tough reforms still need to be made, at least there are encouraging signs that policymakers understand not only the nature of the problem but also of the solution.

Map of Ireland

Discuss This Article

  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Ian Date: Monday January 4, 2016 @10:29AM

    What would be interesting to see is this data mapped against the actual sale prices achieved during the period. As it is an asking price survey from sources exclusively involved in making the market, the data should be treated with caution.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Andrew Date: Monday January 4, 2016 @02:19PM

    The CSO report should be out shortly, asking prices vs sales price especially in the south county Dublin area since the new banking rules appears to have quite a wide gap.

    my neighbours house alone a 5/6 bed semi sold for more than 150k below the original asking price.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Important Landlord Date: Monday January 4, 2016 @06:15PM

    When will I get a return on my investment?

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Patrick Date: Monday January 4, 2016 @06:53PM

    Have rents increased much in the last 3/4 months.
    Is it cheaper to rent or take out a 20 year mortgage

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Seamus Date: Monday January 4, 2016 @07:17PM

    I regularly monitor prices in my area with an eye on eventually selling my house, and I can see a reduction in asking price for houses in my area of county Meath, with a noticeable drop in the number of houses available also, demand is obviously not there

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday January 5, 2016 @04:00PM

    Recently looking to rent 3 bedroomed house in south county Dublin on direct transport links to the city. The cheapest available was in the order of 2,300 euro per month. One agent told me that their available rental properties are generally taken up within 5 days!
    Again house prices in this same area are way above the average in the daft report by possibly 100k ! I do not understand how the figures are arrived at by Daft.
    When governments interfere in a market then people and prices suffer; I believe we had that in the Bacon reports of old! They should govern and learn from the mistakes of the past and stay out of introducing rules that become law and which are never rescinded if they are bad rules.
    Still and all Daft report makes interesting reading.
    A searcher!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Mark Date: Wednesday January 6, 2016 @01:36PM

    The mortgage lending restrictions are the only sensible thing about the Irish property market, without them we would be looking at much higher property prices constantly climbing which would probably help to start building again as developers could earn profits but this story has already been told, it would lead to a second property crash.

    The government needs to now reduce the cost of building property in Ireland as the shortage of property is the only reason for high prices.

    Although the market in now completely different to the boom era, the lack of government intervention has kept one aspect the same, high house prices. You have to ask yourself is this the only thing the government want? why? Is it to talk about a false recovering housing market to Europe?

    Lack of property builds and high housing prices will continue as the government probably cannot face up to or want a proper healthy housing market for its citizens. Profits over people.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: martin Date: Wednesday January 6, 2016 @04:51AM

    Singapore has done some very interesting things.The government supplies most of the housing.This keeps prices down and just about anyone can afford there own place.This gives Singapore a very high standard of living.
    Thatcherism did some crazy things.One being to get government out of providing housing.
    Irish house prices need to rise as so many people are in negative equity.This impacts on banks as so many mortgages cannot be repaid due to their being in negative equity.
    Perhaps the central bank could ease up on their restrictive lending policies and the government get into building more social housing.

    WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THIS.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Paul Date: Wednesday January 6, 2016 @01:51PM

    Martin,

    You are obviously a home owner in negative equity, unfortunately those who find themselves in this position cannot expect the market to remain unfair and overpriced and bend to their needs just to cover the losses of people who made bad investments. Although they were necessary investments for many the bottom line is they bought during a boom era.

    The market cannot rise and meet the prices of those in negative equity as those houses would just be sold onto others who would again be left in negative equity when the market would crash again and the cycle would continue.

    What we need in this county is to draw a line in the sand as regards property. Create a proper functioning housing market with lending restrictions and adequate supply of housing.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: martin Date: Thursday January 7, 2016 @12:47AM

    I am most certainly not a home owner in negative equity.I am on about how to make the Irish property market a balanced one .At present mortgages in negative equity are causing serious distortions in the Irish economy.This problem must be solved.
    I am on about looking at a long term solution to problems by giving the battlers a place to live and helping those in negative equity out of their predicament.

    WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Paul Date: Thursday January 7, 2016 @11:24AM

    Your quote was " Irish house prices need to rise as so many people are in negative equity.This impacts on banks as so many mortgages cannot be repaid due to their being in negative equity.Perhaps the central bank could ease up on their restrictive lending policies and the government get into building more social housing"

    Your solution to the people trapped in NE is to create the same situation that got these people into NE ie lack or regulation? And that the current NE situation impacts on banks, banks were bailed out and every tax paying citizen in Ireland carries that burden even though it was not their debts.

    Being in NE once you can pay your mortgage is not a problem, so i don not see your point on NE there. If people cannot pay their mortgage and as many are strategic defaulters then banks should repossess. Other than that their is no solution.

    For a balanced market regulation is essential as is adequate supply both social and private housing. The central banks regulation is essential as with limited supply and free credit prices would skyrocket and the crash would be even more severe than before.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Paul Date: Thursday January 7, 2016 @12:56PM

    Personally, there are deals out there still to be had, I was lucky towards the end of 2015, myself and my girlfriend purchased a property in the area we wanted and size house we wanted, we were stuck in rental for a while as we couldn't find the right property for our family, we save Ä350pm.

    I think asking to un-restrict the lending regulations is the wrong way, they work fine for now limiting the greedy.

    The government/local council made the stupid decision to stop building properties and gave a golden egg to the private sector and then it exploded in their face because of greed.

    People always want more, never happy to be just happy.

    Unfortunately itís a vicious cycle that won't be avoided, because the government will bend to big business again and it will cause further problems for the economy. Greed! Someone always make money from other peoples misery, be that the bank, government, builder, funeral services.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: martin Date: Friday January 8, 2016 @12:07AM

    Paul

    What a shame that you misrepresent what I say.

    If house prices went up by 5% pa the negative equity problem would go away in about ten years.I have never supported unrestricted lending which would bring on a boom and then a bust.

    I expected a higher level debate.You obviously have a very big chip on your shoulder.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Paul Date: Friday January 8, 2016 @10:50AM

    Martin,

    In order for house prices to rise to the levels of 2007 which where in fact at boom level prices everything else would also need to rise, wages etc. Traditionally mortgage lending has been 3.5 times annual salary, which is sustainable and does not create boom and bust cycles. so in order for house prices to continually rise for a decade at 5% would create a situation that would only suit people in NE which is not sustainable as house prices in cities are already beyond most peoples salary scale and I do not see salary scales increasing by 5% annually. If this rise did happen even without less lending restrictions we would have another crash.

    House prices I feel in Dublin are currently at their peak as they can go no further with lending restrictions and average salaries.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Friday January 8, 2016 @11:52AM

    A 5% increase pa for 10 years would mean house prices above 50% of their current price. How would these prices be sustainable Martin? what factors would allow salaries to grow to afford these prices because without large salary increases to deal with that level of inflation banks would need to lend annual salary multiples of over 10 (which happened in the boom) which as we know is unsustainable.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: John C Date: Saturday January 9, 2016 @08:57PM

    I've a query. I'm on 45K PA, plus a bonus. I've never bought, and I'm single. It appears quite difficult to get on the property ladder, for a 3 bed on my salary. I recently received approval from the bank, however, it seems to be a waste of time, unless you've a partner. I can get a maximum of 155K, and in Limerick, it appears there are only apartments, or old houses, in which I would not be able to afford to do up, they are far from turn key condition. Is it possible the 3.5 times of a salary may be lifted in time, if individuals have a good credit rating? Or will prices potentially go down if more houses become available? Thanks in advance.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Peter Date: Monday January 11, 2016 @06:53PM

    John C,

    Who knows what will happen. In theory, the lending restrictions will stay, and taxes on undeveloped land will mean developers will build, increasing supply and lowering prices. However, problem is there are a lot of people who would not be happy with this scenario, and some of them are influential -

    1. Developers want to maximise the value of their sites so they want high prices (especially as they've probably paid to much for their sites).
    2. Government (thorugh NAMA), own a lot of property and if prices go up, NAMA make a greater profit. Furthermore, they own AIB and higher prices will improve AIB's position.
    3. People who have bought land around the outskirts of towns and citties on the hiope that they will be re-zoned for housing.
    4. Ordinary people in negative equity, who do not have much influence other than they are voters, and could be a significant vating block.
    5. Landlords and large people/companies with large property portfolios.

    Although lower house prices will benefit the overall economy and be better for the greater good, I would say those influential section of society will mean restrictions will be eased and prices will remain high. They need people like you to buy or else there's no profit to be made, and you can only buy if you find a wealthy partner or if you're allowed to borrow too much (or salaries are increased to the point where the economy become uncompetitive). Another boom will be engineered so as to allow some to regain their wealth and others to increase profits and ordinary house buyers will again be left carrying the can.

    I am in the same position as you, though older and on a larger salary. Without a partner, it's very difficult to find a decent place. That alone tells you that there is something skewed about the market - especially in Dublin.

    So get a partner and buy now before the boom goes into over drive! :)

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Peter Date: Sunday January 10, 2016 @01:57PM

    High property prices are very damaging to a normal economy but benefit developers and landowners in certain areas. Unfortunately the government will take risks with the long term health of the economy to help the interests of developers.

    Developers claim that prices are too high to make it worth their while to build (though no independent body hs verified this to my knowledge). If this is the case, this means they have paid too much for their sites/land.

    When buying a site you generally know how many properties you can build on the site (refering to planning restrictions etc.), you know how much it will cost to build them and you know the market value of those properties (which will be infuenced by credit restrictions from central bank). These factors determine how much you pay for the site. To pay more means you're speculating on one or more of the following:

    1. An increase in property prices
    2. You can influence government to remove the planning restrictions
    3. You can influence governement to remove restrictions on lending

    You're also assuming the goverment will not introduce a tax on undeveloped land or at least delay it (a 3% tax to be applied from 2019 - why so late?) that migh ecourage you to build now rather than later. This allow you to hold on to undeveloped land, restricting supply and so increase demand/prices... effectively holding the country to ransom.

    Regarding point 2 - We have seen the Labour minister has already buckled and allowed smaller apartments with the false claim that it will encouraging building. Where is the incentive to build? He has just increased the developers' profits for when they do deem it the right time to build..... and that'll be when we're desperate to buy anything... no matter how cramped and poorly built.

    I wonder how long the lending caps will last in the face of the lobby?

    There's much money to be paid by powerful people and institutions which means that it's worth "lobbying" the goverment very hard to ensure nothing hinders their drive to increase profits. Profits are not wrong in themselves but when they are increased excessively to the detriment of the common good, by unfairly influencing the goverment, then they are wrong.

    What's the point of having a strong economy if the citizens who work in it have to handover an excessive portion of their salary for rent or mortgage to live in often inadequate properties? If our quality of life falls, while our economy grows, then who's benefiitting?






    Prices are high in Dublin due to the influence of

    We have an unusual situation where the state has taken over the banks and the health There's a lot of money to be made by developers and their financers.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: martin Date: Monday January 11, 2016 @02:05AM

    Dear Paul and Anonymous

    What about the untold thousands of unfortunate people in negative equity.They are in fact bankrupt.If there houses are repossessed they will have no credit rating .Have a heart.
    A very good friend of mine lives in one of the cheaper Australian cities.It is slightly more expensive than Dublin.Wages are not much different than in Ireland.Yet prices go up 5-7% pa and people easily manage.
    In a normal economy prices go up 2-3%pa.That means that 5%increase pa is easily achievable as in real money terms it is only2%pa.
    Unfortunately this shows that the claim that with this level of price increase lending would be at multiples of ten times income is unfortunately untrue.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Paul Date: Monday January 11, 2016 @10:19AM

    Martin,

    38,000 mortgages are in arrears of over 2 years in this country with little or no prospects of paying these back which is probably the worst case of arrears in the western world with no action been taken on the matter. This is only going to get worse.

    All the banks have done is increase variable interest rate mortgage holders to cover their losses from tracker mortgages and defaulting mortgages which will only lead to more mortgage arrears.

    Why should private debt taken out by citizens of their own accord who now cannot pay that debt be given special treatment? It does not solve the problem in fact it only makes it worse. It is up to the government to supply social housing for these people and fix the arrears crisis as their actually is no other solution. These are the hard facts.
    Bankruptcy laws can be changed to what the UK currently have.

    Australia's economy cannot be compared to the Irish economy as they have not experienced a crash and in fact have been going through a boom and property bubble which many expect to crash at some point in the future.

    your said "In a normal economy prices go up 2-3%pa.That means that 5%increase pa is easily achievable as in real money terms it is only2%pa.
    Unfortunately this shows that the claim that with this level of price increase lending would be at multiples of ten times income is unfortunately untrue"

    In a normal economy or housing market their is adequate supply and lending regulation. we now have one aspect of this. Our property market is not normal or functioning properly. With lending at around 3.5 annual salaries to see 5% over 10 years will equate to over a 50% price hike which is simple math's. This level of price increase I cannot see being sustainable as I already know that with current salaries it is near impossible to get on the property ladder in Dublin for the majority of people.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: martin Date: Monday January 11, 2016 @02:15AM

    The claim that a two bed apartment cost 280000 to build makes one wonder.

    For cost of the actual building is nothing near this.The real problem is the government charges paid by the builder for roadworks etc.In fact this is taxation by stealth and guess what the cost is passed onto the house buyer.

    How much of the housing problem is really a tax problem

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Peter Date: Monday January 11, 2016 @07:16PM

    Martin,

    A developer who's buying a site should know what charges they will have to pay. Knowing this and knowing how many units they can fit on the site, and what the market value for those units will be, he should know what the site value is. If he has paid to much, he is speculating on price increases/ easing of leanding restrictions/easing of planning restrictions).

    Regarding those in NE, it is tough for those in such a situation. They are the victims of poor governance and regulation. However, the soltion for them is not to again allow poor regulation and instead, expand creidt. Otherwise, you are going to get another boom and crash, landing many others in NE.

    I see no short term soluton for them. They could argue that they are owed something from the state given the debt write downs the big boys got, and given that there was such poor regulation. But it must also be acknowledged that they chose to borrow the money. And in theory at least, the goverment can't be insuring people against making bad financial decisions, or we'd all be making them and the whole economy would fall apart, as well as every household.

    A 5% annual increase would equate to a 63% increase over 10 years.

    Regarding Australia, I would predict a property crash there soon. They have boomed as China has boomed and as oil prices grew over the last 10 to 15 years . With both oil prices and the Chinese economy dropping, it will be interesting to se how Australia fares.

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  • Apartment Question

    Posted By: Harry Date: Monday January 11, 2016 @04:05PM

    While house prices in Dublin were increasing i was seeing very little movement in the price of apartments. I have seen a bit of an increase in recent months but there is such a huge swing on prices that you see apartments advertised for its very hard to tell.

    Apartments being sold in bulk through NAMA or just simple bank repossessions make it a bit unclear.

    With Houses in such short demand as so often spoke about in the news would you have a view as to why apartments are not more in demand. I would have thought with the lack of property available and with no indications of enough homes to be built in the immediate future I find this surprising.

    Do you feel apartments in the Dublin suburb areas have reached a peak value.

    (I would fall into the category of home owner turned landlord - no immediate rush to sell but struggling to get head around the apartment market)

    Many thanks

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Peter Date: Monday January 11, 2016 @06:59PM

    Harry,

    I would guess that's it's a combination of

    1. People not trusting apartments (after Priory Hall and Long Boat Quay...)
    2. There are many apartment owners who bought in the naughties who are looking to move out to a house to start (or continue) a family (most apartments are too pokey to raise a family in - certainly if you have more than 1 kid). Or they might just want to move out because they're fed up of cramped conditions.

    So you have new buyers avoiding apartments and aiming for houses and you have current apartment occupiers looking to move out of them to houses, so houses prices go up and apartments remain static (some people who can afford nothing else are still buying apartements).

    But that's only my theory.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Harry Date: Tuesday January 12, 2016 @10:34AM

    Hi Peter,

    I actually agree with all the points in your mail that would be reasons to put people of purchasing apartments.

    I just feel with the massive massive under supply of property that and the sheer volume of people needing to move that apartments would have become slightly more desirable - although be tat some what reluctantly on the part of the purchasers.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: PaulM Date: Monday January 18, 2016 @02:17AM

    Dear Martin

    Please stick to your guns. Unfortunately it seems to me that most of the population view the previous housing boom as the cause of all of the repossessions and inability to repay loans, rather than the symptom. Rising house prices in an economy with strong fundamentals is a good thing.

    Whilst worry / panic / past experience of being burnt / lack of understanding ALWAYS creates a herd mentality of fear and distrust, I expect Governments to be better informed and act more rationally. Unfortunately, I think that the CB rules are excessive. Whilst intervention / lending rules are absolutely necessary, they are currently too restrictive and will severely hurt Irish people in the long term.

    There is a whole generation of Irish that will now struggle to purchase homes, and get a reasonable windfall for their retirements. As developed countries such as the UK experience strong housing growth, which is not feared by their more forward thinking governments, their citizens become richer whilst the Irish will become relatively poorer to many other nations. Housing growth provides household equity and is therefore an impetus for investment and wealth creation. This is not greed. Rather, it helps us stay competitive to our oversees peers and plan for comfortable retirements, and holiday abroad in countries without finding them too expensive.

    To clear up a few other points by some other posters:

    - The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority established lending rules in response to the 1988 crash and the Asian Economic Crisis in 1994. This, inter alia, helped insulate it from the GFC - it is not all about the rich mineral exports. Ireland needs regulation but any bank regulation must be designed to encourage healthy growth.

    -People keep saying that developers are greedy. However, most are still unemployed. @ Peter & Paul - these guys would love to get back to developing to put food on the table. A significant reason for the housing shortage is that it costs around the same to build a house as it does to sell. If Dublin drops by 5% then that developer goes bankrupt. There is therefore no incentive to build. We don't need this point independently verified - the proof is in the lack of construction!

    - With so little land on the market and so many developers trying to get back in the game, landholders can get very high prices for land, as developers bid against each other in an effort to get back to work. It is the landholders who are now extracting the profits. But this is an economic cycle - you cannot blame the landholder for getting the best price - you would all do the same. And be pretty upset if the government charged you a fee for not selling your land.

    Some solutions:

    Reduce the level of government imposed lending restrictions
    Offer incentives for developers that can 'build upwards'
    Reduce VAT levels for builders
    Add a land holding tax for land with development potential (I am still notionally for this).

    What not to do:
    Rent Controls
    Governments taking too much responsibility for building housing (developers will do it far more efficiently and remove huge taxpayer burden)
    Reduce housing sizes / standards

    I worry that Ireland is severely harming itself again but from a polar opposite ideology.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Muhammad Khan Date: Tuesday January 19, 2016 @05:00PM

    Seems we are moving towards London type of housing prices where a 3 bed semi detached is over half a million pound. And I am saying because I just sold mine over there on the same price and the house was 25 years old. I just ask one question how a young family can afford a property of over half a million ? And same thing is going to happen to us here in Ireland....

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: John Date: Tuesday January 19, 2016 @10:49PM

    I love managers. They can explain why the bad is good :)

    The average house prices (sold) decreased by 3% in 2015 to compare to 2014 in Dublin. (this statement based on http://www.propertypriceregister.ie, everyone can check it...)

    Ronan not accidentally choose the period from mid of 2014 instead of January 2015, otherwise he could not say everything is fine :).

    Same trick the comparison of the houses on the market, what is the point to compare to 2009? Of course, there were 2 times more houses on the market in middle of the crisis, in a period, when no one bought houses :)
    That comparison should be done to compare to 2014, but possibly would not been a significant different :)

    About asking prices. Back to 2009. The main problem was the big gap between the asking prices and sold house prices.
    This year: average house prices decreased, asking prices increased. Conclusion: we are going backward to 2009.

    There are people who get their profit on manipulation of others, and this report just an example to this.
    (figures not good? let's try different figures) Statistic only a graceful form of lie.


    If the market is manipulated that is not good either for buyers and seller, or landlords and tenants.


    I am sure, all sellers were happy when their house was sold by extra 20 thousand euro compare to previous year. But the question is, the sellers were happy when they lost their jobs as a knock back effect? or the following sellers were happy when they have lost 60 thousand euro to compare to two years before, as knock back effect?

    The final question, what will be the knock back effect on the economy if another 100 thousands Polish people go home again. Do not need to be a genius to see the consequence of this event as do not need be a genius also to see, we have started to walk on the same path again.

    A nice example for country where the house prices not manipulated is Germany. Might be property selling is not a big business as over here, but it is calculable and won't crash the economy. Finally as effect of stability: German houses have extremely high standard to compare to Irish ones.

    The government has already recognised the problem and start to do few steps. For example, buyers can get less mortgage in Dublin. Only problem they want to win the next election, so they won't do unpopular steps to save the country.

    We should exercise self-restraint, and try to work together. Understand the fact landlords need tenants, and sellers need buyers. We should start with self-restraint instead of waiting others to start it. We can say the system is wrong, but only problem, we are the system.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Wednesday January 20, 2016 @09:37AM

    All this doesn't really matter, if China crashes which it look more and more likely were going to enter Financial crisis 2.0 which some speculate will be worse than 2008, property prices, employment wiped.

    Our performing economy is only due to external factors, exchange rates, low interest rates and our reliance on exports, it is nothing with what our government have done.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2015

    Posted By: martin Date: Friday January 22, 2016 @04:44AM

    Dear Paulm

    An excellent reply.

    You have hit the nail on the head with one word REGULATION.

    Australia has the regulation that Ireland so badly needs.They will not have a property crash.They have the reserve bank the treasury department apra etc all watching and well able to take corrective action.

    Ireland needs an anti corruption watch dog with full ability to prosecute politicians town planners etc.Phone taps on suspects would be mandatory.In Queensland the Fitzgerald enquiry resulted in many politicians and police including the police commissioner doing HARD time.

    Placing corrupt politicians in Clover Hill prison with the sex offenders would do the Irish economy and property market a sterling service.

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