Taking stock of Ireland's property market, five years into the crash

Ronan Lyons, Economist

2nd Jul 2012

Ronan Lyons, Daft's in-house economist, commenting on the latest Daft research on the Irish property market.

Taking stock, five years on

Although the first signs of the slowdown in the Irish property market date back to the Daft.ie Report of mid-2006, the start of Ireland's property market crash is typically dated from when property prices started to fall in the second quarter of 2007. This quarter's report, which marks five years of falling prices, and the 50th Daft.ie House Price Report, presents an opportunity to take stock on what has happened and what that can tell us about the future.

Ireland in perspective

Already, Ireland's property crash is recognised as one of the most severe ever experienced by a modern developed economy. OECD research suggests that the typical housing market downturn lasts over four and a half years, so the crash is already longer than the usual one. Not only is it longer however, it is also sharper. During the typical OECD housing market downturn, the fall in prices is 23%. According to the latest Daft.ie Report, the average fall from the peak nationwide has been 53%.

An average, however, can hide all-important details. For example, in the U.S., the median house price has fallen 20% since 2006. However, to focus on the 20% is to ignore the hugely different experiences across each of 140 metropolitan areas . According to U.S. realtor figures, in 27 cities, including San Antonio and Amarillo in Texas, the median price has actually risen in those six years. Conversely, in high-profile cities such as Phoenix, Orlando, Las Vegas and LA, prices have fallen by more than 50%. In Detroit, the average house price has fallen 66% in the last six years.

Over the last few years, daft.ie has built up a huge dataset of property listings - over 1.1 million lettings ads and 660,000 sales listings since the start of 2006. Tens of thousands of new listings are used each quarter in the daft.ie reports on the sales and lettings markets. But the sample in its entirety can also be used to take stock and see what structural changes have happened in the Irish property market since the final stages of the bubble.

Mapping changes in the Irish market

Since the start of the year, I have been working with the National Institute for Regional & Spatial Analysis at NUI Maynooth analysing Ireland's property market since 2006. The approach involved using the address of each listing to map all the ads as accurately as possible and then breaking the country down into as many zones as possible. These zones were built up from the 4,500 Census districts in the country (enumerator areas in the cities, electoral divisions elsewhere). These districts were added together until each zone had enough listings in both the bubble and crash period to estimate where it fits in the nationwide spread of prices (and rents), both in 2007 and in 2012. Maps of house prices and rents in 2007 and now are available at daft.ie/research.

The models of house prices used - which are explained in more detail in a working paper available here - point to some important adjustments that have taken place in the housing market since the end of the bubble. They also highlight important differences between the sales market and the lettings market. The obvious difference between prices and rents is that the typical fall in prices (54.5% according to the most thorough model developed) has been almost twice the size of that in the rents (29.4%). As a result, the rent-to-price ratio (or 'yield', which is also mapped for each of the 4,500 Census districts) has increased from historic lows in 2007 (3.5% on average) to 5.5% in 2012.

However, that is not the only significant difference between prices and rents. While the spread of rents has narrowed, the spread of house prices has if anything increased. The easiest way to think about this is to look at the p remium associated with a particular property size. During the latter stages of the bubble, the average difference between a four-bedroom property and a two-bedroom property in the same location was 45%. Since 2009, though, it has increased to 58%. As shown in the figure below, this increasing premium associated with space holds true for property types (e.g. detached versus apartment) as well as for property sizes.

Premium associated with certain property types (national average), for different periods

The increase in the price of space since the bubble ended is the opposite of what has happened in rents, where there has been greater compression in rents. In one sense, this runs counter to people's intuitions - surely after a bubble, the more expensive properties will be hit most? The figures suggest, though, that the bubble was characterised by what could be termed a "property ladder" effect: people disregarded where they wanted to buy long-term, which pushed up the price of smaller properties, including one and two-bedroom apartments and terraced properties.

What these maps mean for the future

Five years into Ireland's property market crash, and prices continue to fall. According to the latest Daft.ie Report, the average asking price fell 2.6% in the second quarter of 2012, compared to 1.4% in the first quarter and an average quarterly fall of 4.3% during the period 2008-2011. Dublin prices have fallen by most - but as the maps show, this may be due to smaller properties seeing their prices fall by more on average.

In general, the signs from the Dublin property market are much healthier. The average asking price in Dublin in June (€214,000) was quite close to that in December (€217,000), while the average price outside the major cities fell from €162,000 to €149,000 in the same period. But it is important to remember that recovery in the property market is not about prices - it will take over four decades of "normal" house price inflation of 2% to reach the prices last seen in 2007 - rather, recovery is about activity.

Measures of activity in the Daft Report also suggest that the Dublin market is improving. The stock available for sale in Dublin, at just over 4,600, has fallen 35% from its peak of late 2008 and is only 18% above the levels of early 2007. In June, 34% of properties that were put on the market two months previously had sold - up from 25% last December. All these figures suggest that the Dublin market is closest to being a normal property market again.

Outside the major cities, though, it does not look like the property market adjustment has completed. Not only are prices still falling, oversupply is still an issue: there are still twice as many properties for sale now as in early 2007 (16,000 compared to 8,000). Unlike Dublin, there has been little change in the number of properties selling within two or four months. In Connacht-Ulster, just 12% of properties find a buyer within two months, a fraction that has not changed since the start of the year.

People will want to live near cities, which will drive most jobs growth. This demand-side factor will compound supply-side differences. A large oversupply in some areas and in some property types, such as apartments and terraced homes, will only slowly fade away, while urban areas may need construction of new family homes soon. While confidence and credit are of course important national factors, over coming years, Ireland's property market will be characterised by these differences. Policymakers, both national and local, ignore them at their peril.

HIGHLIGHTS:

Sale Index
Asking Prices, Residential Sales

Stock and flow of properties
Stock and Flow of Sale Properties


SNAPSHOT:

Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide
Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide

Discuss This Article

  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: elizabeth Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @08:59AM

    can I access survey on ardmore co waterford sales and purchases in past few months?

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday July 12, 2012 @06:36PM

    supply and demand.
    the suplement of houses for sale in dublin is falling sharply and accelerating,it is down to just over 4500 and as fell by more than 200 in the last three weeks,if his continues there will surely be some increase in prices

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: john Hayes Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @10:12AM

    i remember in 1995 standing in line hoping to be lucky enought to be get a three bedroom new build house in obelisk court blackrock for £87,000 punts . no one then was hoping to make money from capital growth , we thought the price would acutally go down.....what drove the market was lack of supply in south dublin for 3 bed houses ... this was the start of the boom........there was simply not enought housing being build...after years of no supply ....this will happen again.. its just waiting for the euro wide economy to pick up. The lack of housing starts will bit in the next two years at that stage we will have been in " no build mode" for 7 years. The population continues to increase and yet our housing stock in mainly in the one and two bed apartments .... rents will continue to rise and hence yields and ROI will be attractive to investors

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Frank Date: Wednesday July 4, 2012 @12:22AM

    What many property experts say is a good rule of thumb when putting a value on property is that an average 3 bed semi should be priced at 4 times the average industrial wage.So,in ireland of 2012 taking an average wage of €30k,the average 3 bed semi should be selling for €120k !!!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: David Jones Date: Wednesday July 4, 2012 @10:17AM

    Problem with that analysis is its not based on regions , in Dublin the average wage in nearer €60K , and South Dublin nearer €100K , so you get a labour worker in Mallow for €15K , so national averages make a nonesence .... as you have proved.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: carla Date: Wednesday July 4, 2012 @08:45PM

    ARe you insane...the average wage in Dublin North or South is around €25,000 I work in Ballsbridge in a really good job, and my wage has been 25k for the last 3 years because of therecession....whoever is on those kind of wages is in the minority...get real man. Does anyone have ACTUAL wages of this sort? don't think so.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: joe Date: Friday July 6, 2012 @12:51PM

    You need to get a life or go aboard , $25K is a graduate wage

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday July 10, 2012 @04:08PM

    South dublin average wage is not 100k, please check your sources

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Guest Date: Wednesday July 4, 2012 @09:20AM

    Even if they are building, they are not building in the right areas and not building with the right idea. Dublin's sprawl needs to be controlled. That means building several storey apartment blocks throughout the city. What is the point in having a 3-bed semi in Navan when there is traffic stopping you from reaching Dublin????

    Irish snobbery towards apartment complexes needs to end. Dublin, unfortunately, has not used the space it has wisely and, as a result, both the city and the country suffer from it. Had we had 14 or 15 luxury apartment blocks for 130-190k during the boom with security and proper fittings, we might have been able to focus our talents on developing small businesses. NOOOOO, we ran after the price of the house and land.

    The population continues to increase but it is not the middle class that is increasing. Take a look at the number of people leaving Dublin Airport. Where are those people who have good jobs in Ireland going to be getting money from if the young middle class is leaving in droves??? From the unemployed, refugees, economic migrants who are here for a few years before going home, from our old folks, from a fiscally conservative Europe that has cottoned on to the Irish scam...where?

    If you can't build out, it's time to build up. If Dublin wants to provide for the youth of the country, it needs to change its planning approach. If Dublin wants to remain a kip, go ahead with what you are doing.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Friday July 6, 2012 @12:59PM

    Its true to say that the population is increasing but many potential house buyers are emigrating or have done so already. It may depend on whether this section of the population return as so many did at the begining of the celtic tiger. Many believe it will take up to 20 years for the population to recover particularly in areas west of the shannon

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Pat Date: Sunday July 22, 2012 @03:45AM

    Yes and pigs might fly(portugal,greece ,ireland,spain).Has unemployment dropped despite mass immegration of 2% keeping down unemployment.Have debt levels fallen are properties worth more than you paid for them.In my openion scarcity ther is none and in this instance will not drive up prices.Prices are still falling and have much further to go.Wait until unemployment gets to around 8% not 19% as it really is.
    You can delude yourself into thinking it cant get worse.
    Yours
    An Irishman that immegrated in the 80's

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @12:41PM

    does dublin west include postal code ,dublin 22. i.e. Clondalkin., Thank you.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Joseph Savon Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @01:59PM

    I think the premium associated with property size in Dublin will disappear once the government introduces a property tax based on valuation.
    Once that occurs there will be a rush to downsize as older couples living in their four and five bed empty nests sell up.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Mark Laurie Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @03:23PM

    Hi Joseph,

    I do not doubt that if the government was to introduce a property tax based on size of dwelling there would be a rush of older (retired perhaps) people looking to downsize. However I have not heard of any move by the government to introduce such measures. Still, just because I have not heard of this idea does not mean that it is not on the table.

    I just wanted to ask you if you had actually heard the idea proposed anywhere by a government minister. Notionally it sounds very close to a tax measure introduced during the Tatcher era. As far as I can remember this led to riots in the streets.
    I am not sure the irish government want a similar situation on Irish streets.

    Sometimes ministers let the cat out of the bag to test the idea, so if you actually heard it mentioned I would be very interested to know.

    A move like this would assert a downward pressure on the property market. Sounds risky to me.

    Mark

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Joseph Savon Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @08:29PM

    Hi Mark,

    There is a property tax on the way.

    On the 31st of January 2012 the Minister for the Environment, Community and Local Government, Mr Phil Hogan T.D. announced that he has established a high level and focused Inter-Departmental expert Group to consider the structures of a valuation-based property tax that will replace the current €100 Household Charge.

    http://www.environ.ie/en/LocalGovernment/LocalGovernmentAdministration/News/MainBody,29330,en.htm

    Whether the property tax is purely valuation based, or a combination of valuation and size is up for discussion.
    Either way, it will assert downward p
    ressure on property prices, especially the more expensive spacious properties alluded to above.

    Regards,

    Joseph

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Brenda Date: Wednesday July 4, 2012 @10:15AM

    Hi Joseph,

    As somebody who has lived in the UK for many years and is now returning to Dublin - hopefully South Co Dublin - and therefore paid the type of tax to which you refer I can tell you that it has little affect on elderly people and the size of property in which they live.

    I live in a 4 bed detached in a similar area to South Co Dublin - not London - and I pay £150 a month in property tax. A very large percentage of my neighbours are elderly and have lived in these houses for many years, some since they were built. In the UK if you are living in a property on your own you receive a 25% discount on the total amount, so the £150 is with a 25% discount. I have not seen that mentioned in the Irish plans?????

    If it is a nice area and people are happy living there, they will usually find a way to stay.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Joseph Savon Date: Wednesday July 4, 2012 @03:27PM

    Hi Brenda,

    I'd agree that a tax of £150 a year in the UK is not going to influence the decisions of many people but what matters is what the Irish tax looks like.

    "It is anticipated that the average tax to be paid in 2013 will be €500 per household rising to €1000 in 3-4 years."

    http://www.politics.ie/forum/economy/191802-market-value-property-tax-will-hit-urban-ireland-hardest-sunday-times.html

    If the average is €1000, and most of the country are paying little or nothing then the amounts paid in south co Dublin will be in the thousands.

    A tax of several thousand euros a year may persuade some people to live in a house which merely satisfies their needs.

    Joseph

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Skooter Date: Thursday July 5, 2012 @09:09AM

    That's not £150 per year.. That's £150 per month!

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: James Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @04:34PM

    On top of the property taxes, fortcoming budget, increased unemployment and as soon as the various lenders and banks differentiate the genuinely distressed mortgage defaulters from the Not distressed and capable to pay defaulters and the financial institutions start to seriously repossess in large numbers, we will then see huge reductions in your average semi as the banks try to off load.
    Average semi prices next year will be €150,000 dropping further in 2014 and even 2015.

    One would be mad to buy now, unless of course money is no object to some.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: ME Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @05:04PM

    Prices will go down for another 5 years ;-) Maybe not so fast like for last 5 years, but still will do dawn. That is simple like 2x2=4, no job - no money, no money - no buyers, no buyers - no value.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: mike Date: Saturday July 21, 2012 @01:52AM

    hmmm not so sure. Maybe in some parts od the country but not Dublin and particularly South Dublin. Have been viewing houses in the North and South over the past 9 months. Market has defin changed in the past 2 or 3 months (some of it maybe a result of estate agents whipping it up but mostly lack of supply - some people jst cant afford to sell at the mo unless they are made to or plan on moving abroad for work). Most are executor sales.

    Before xmas people would be offering 30, 40 maybe 50 grand less than asking price for a 3 bed semi. Now there are maybe 30 couples at first viewing and people offering 30 or 40 grand more than asking - mostly in south dublin but also happening in some parts of North. Suppose a house is worth whatever you think you'd be happy to pay for it. Great deals on appartments.

    Would be interesting if the government tried to follow the footsteps of some other europeen countries that offer long term rent to people for reasonable prices. Offer people 5 or 10 year leases with resonable rates - is it that important to own????

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: stephen Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @06:18PM

    With the Gov now having the data to see who has a boom time mortgage and who doesn't with the recent changes to mortgage relief then I can see cuts in non-boom relief being introduced at the next budget. Also as Daft notes, there could easily be cuts in reliefs to those renting, as its artificially holding up the rents vs purchasing. This will increase supply of this older pre-boom stock.

    With wages static then what we should be looking for is a static rent/mortgage market, not rising nor falling in value and where it is rising, gov incentives should be curbed to slow any rise. What's ignored is vast numbers are holding back on putting their house on the market (who would?) even if its too big for them.

    How will the property tax impact on this (perhaps reduce demand in high value areas and boost super connected inner commuter zones).

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Tom Dwane Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @09:13PM

    Property investors seeking high rental yields are piling into the Dublin property market where rents are increasing.

    Although stringent mortgage lending conditions have eased somewhat in recent months, rental growth in the Irish capital is still being underpinned by an irrationally tight mortgage market, which is pushing potential purchasers into the rental market.

    The rise in tenant demand is in turn helping to push rental values higher across parts of Dublin; an attractive proposition for rental investors looking to secure a decent property investment in Ireland.


    “Rents have gone up recently in Dublin and in some cases people are reporting that it is as cheap to pay a mortgage as it is to rent, said Ronan O’Hara, director of Savills in Ireland. “Access to credit also seems to have improved a little.”

    Aside from increasing rents, property prices are still falling as desperate vendors slash prices in order to secure a sale, consequently pushing rental yields higher in the process.

    Unsurprisingly, one major estate agent saw a 400% hike in the volume of purchasers viewing properties in Dublin during Q1 2012, with demand generally greatest for properties in Dublin.

    O’Hara added: “Property purchasers now feel comfortable bidding because they feel there is now genuine value in the market place. In addition to this, vendors are now in the main being very realistic, so prices are fair and buyers are responding favourably.”

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Guest Date: Wednesday July 4, 2012 @09:41AM

    Property investors seeking high rental yields are piling into the Dublin property market where rents are increasing.

    - Government supporting the unemployed and a couple of hundred utter
    deadbeats is distorting the high rental yields view. If the government stopped
    supporting them, the market would drop like a brick.

    Although stringent mortgage lending conditions have eased somewhat in recent months, rental growth in the Irish capital is still being underpinned by an irrationally tight mortgage market, which is pushing potential purchasers into the rental market.

    - STRINGENT lending conditions have EASED. So it is now slightly less difficult
    to apply for a mortgage than before, i.e. who you are and how much you have.
    - TIGHT mortgage market - we are still scared shitless of handing out money to
    those Irish pixies who magic money away with their desperate property porkies.

    The rise in tenant demand is in turn helping to push rental values higher across parts of Dublin; an attractive proposition for rental investors looking to secure a decent property investment in Ireland.

    - Attention Irish passengers, Dublin, next stop Australia or New Zealand.


    “Rents have gone up recently in Dublin and in some cases people are reporting that it is as cheap to pay a mortgage as it is to rent, said Ronan O’Hara, director of Savills in Ireland. “Access to credit also seems to have improved a little.”

    - I believe they have gone up in Dublin as the number of people leaving the
    countryside to find work in Dublin increases, the number of people who are
    being forced to give up their homes to bailiffs, people renting out because they
    want to save for a deposit but if the government started to cut rental supplements
    for the unemployed, you would see a change in the opposite direction as
    landlords would be very quick to look for the euro and a lot of young people
    would be more than willing to oblige them.

    Unsurprisingly, one major estate agent saw a 400% hike in the volume of purchasers viewing properties in Dublin during Q1 2012, with demand generally
    greatest for properties in Dublin.

    - Viewing. I am a bit of a voyeur myself, I won't deny it. It is nice to see what
    people have in their homes and imagine if I could live there.


    O’Hara added: “Property purchasers now feel comfortable bidding because they feel there is now genuine value in the market place. In addition to this, vendors are now in the main being very realistic, so prices are fair and buyers are responding favourably.”

    - Of course, I feel comfortable. I felt comfortable before because I am not a
    property beggar. If the price is right, I buy. If the house has problems, I can fix
    them. I don't need the finished article. For me, a house is a lot better if there are
    four plastered walls and empty so I can go about my own business of
    renovating and bringing my own taste or quality to the place. So, all of the
    cupboards and junk that people have in their house deters me from buying.
    The other things that would encourage me are the things that people never sell -
    good neighbours, good schools, good roads, good hospitals, good restaurants
    and quiet pubs.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @09:19PM

    Prices definitely affordable now..I know lots of people trying to buy house now..trouble is that they can't get them cos all the good house are snapped up whil it is only the really bad houses that are left.....prices will only drop now in places with oversupply and areas where houses have always been cheaper than the average..I expect houses near city centres to stag rising from now on

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: sean Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @10:26PM

    the thing i see most is that people still think they should be getting top price ,
    all the talk about is 5 years ago ,that is why lots of deals are taking for ever,then
    you have your E. A, WOW what a bunch they are,so its not just the price of the
    property you are up against, people seem to think the price is going up but
    my friends you are all wrong if you are 30 years old think on you will be 50 before
    you see blue skys HAPPY DAYS.
    SEAN

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @11:26PM

    Really excellent detailed report pity the broadsheets won't publish it on the front page, give it the recognition it deserves, allow the property levels reach rock bottom instead of this death by 1,000 cuts!! Big pat on the back for Ronan!

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Scooter Date: Thursday July 5, 2012 @09:14AM

    Couldn't agree more! A slow decline, total denial of reality, helps no one. Accept the situation, shake up, wake up and try to move on!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Monday July 2, 2012 @11:37PM

    Also link it in easily with governments 'prices sold' scheme (if we ever see it) and will be able to see the true value of property and relative to market values instead of smoke and mirrors. In UK can find housing prices history at one click of a mouse and put reasonable adjustment/inflation on a property. Lack of confidence equals lack of investment and people holding out. Who can afford a E20,000 decrease in value over one year on a property onto their mortgage which could mean another five years of working. 'Lux et veritas', by shining a light on prices and trends the hard truths will come out and move on from that.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Gerry Mann Date: Tuesday July 3, 2012 @11:11PM

    Mortgages continued to decline in the first quarter of the year, decreasing by 0.6 per cent over the quarter and representing a ninth consecutive quarterly fall.

    The total value of mortgages outstanding on Irish banks' balance sheets currently stands at €79.9 billion. In contrast, the peak for home loans, including securitised mortgages, was hit in March 2009 at €149 billion.

    The majority of the mortgages are what is known as “floating rate”, and include standard variable rate, tracker rate, and mortgages with a fixed rate up to one year. Tracker mortgages accounted for 49 per cent of mortgages, although the figures had fallen by €276 million during the quarter.

    Fixed rate loans accounted for 13 per cent of outstanding home loans.

    This is massive deleveraging, mortgage payers are paying back a little more than €3 billion every 3 months. The housing market marsh is getting some gravel in it .........solid days are ahead.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Peter Date: Wednesday July 4, 2012 @11:14PM

    Why are people still on about the price of houses. if you want one buy one, you might be still in it in ten years time. if not keep renting. I think the people on this blog really have nothing better for doing...

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Jake Date: Thursday July 5, 2012 @10:23AM

    One person speaking to me recently told me his house at the peak had gone up 100% since he bought it and if prices in his area had only dropped 60% since the peak then he was still 'up'. I didn't want to burst his bubble but it makes you realise how these bankers find it so easy to scam certain people.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Skooter Date: Thursday July 5, 2012 @06:24PM

    Indeed. God love him when he realises :(

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Joe Date: Thursday July 5, 2012 @06:35PM

    Seems to me everyone is talking about the prices today as a percentage of the "peak"------which as we now know was a complete aberration.Going back to 99-2000 before we all got drunk on easy credit and allowing for even a generous property growth of 5%per yr, a 3bdrm property in the rathfarnam area would now be selling in the low to mid 200ks---------were close , but we have a ways to go yet.
    Common sense will return.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: peter Date: Friday July 6, 2012 @12:02PM

    Is is not normal to add base inflation to your 200K number in 2000 at say 2-3% per annum , that compounded would be 33% ...so your rathfarm house today should be around £336K ... a little maths goes a long way

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: joe Date: Friday July 6, 2012 @02:00PM

    Yes indeed you can do a lot of things with math.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Guest Date: Monday July 9, 2012 @08:17AM

    But take a look inside the houses that are for sale in Dublin. They are bog standard and that is being polite.

    Even those priced at half a million leave a lot to be desired. Why would you hand over 500k for what is an average house in an "elite' area where heating is leaking and seeping out of the house because the owners either didn't give a damn about the place or didn't have enough money to maintain its upkeep. The kitchens are by and large all 1980s, bedrooms with the standard crucifix, old wallpaper, carpets, old appliances... or it is cheap and gaudy where the Dubliners went crazy in the States when the dollar was at 1.60 buying tasteless items. There is nothing in the Dublin market up to million mark that is of any real value. Nothing. Not even the land. So, take away that inflation part.

    Imagine a 500-600k house that looks as if it is only for students. For 500-600k, I expect designer kitchens or designer bedrooms. I expect fireworks of class and taste.

    In other words, Dublin is a bog. The quality of housing remains as it has always been, and I stand by my opinion that there are about two dozen houses in Ireland that are adequately priced right across the market.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Rose Brady Date: Friday July 6, 2012 @01:46PM

    So, is it best to buy or rent or wait awhile? I am returning to Ireland after working many years in England. I left Ireland in the 80's when I was unable to pay my mortgage due to no paid work. I am hearing the same stories now as in the 80's.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: joe Date: Friday July 6, 2012 @03:13PM

    by all mean rent. You'll know it's at bottom when property stops falling for 9 -12 months and it will not rise in any real sense for 3-5 yrs once it does reach bottom.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: rachel dell Date: Wednesday July 25, 2012 @01:34AM

    I am in a similar position. Bought apartment in 2002 after saving deposit over 5 years in horrible job and no social life (Crappy low pay job). Some of the people we met going in to view looked nice and were chatty, but didn't realise they were all investors (I never saw a one of them again!). We lived there 5 years and the tenants came and went with lots of social problems: screaming and fights and drunks. We called the police at least 4 times. I got out when some guy broke the main door down during the day to get at his ex partner. I had a 1 year old baby and went to the police. Not a bit of interest! Stayed with parents and decided to sit tight and just save for new house as the price plummeted on apartment so rented it out to 3 tenants who eventually left because of social problems. Unfortunately the bank says they cannot lend us money for 2 years and our apartment in neg. equity of at least 20000 and dropping. Don't think I can stay here much longer as it is very hard. I want to get rid of it (my dream home!!!) but must pay the bank what it is worth plus an ordinary loan of neg. equity of 20-30000.
    We just bought at the wrong time. Most of my sisters have paid off their mortgages by now! I feel like I'm spending my whole life trying to get a house. Have two young kids now and they badly need their own space. Should I just bloody rent. Asking price locally is 1,500. Yet also have deposit for permanent home to think of and getting rid of my milestone of an apartment which costs a fortune: nppr, household tax, self-assesment tax, prtb, repairs, agency fees every year and payback of security deposit etc. plus ber soon and god knows what else this government throws at me 'cos I was just born a couple of years after my sisters. Rent or believe my bank when they say I'll get a mortgage next year? Save deposit and stay for a while in a squashed hse. All has a bad effect of my marriage so in a quandry.???

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Fitz Date: Friday July 6, 2012 @10:19PM

    As a first time buyer who is still looking at what is available in the Dublin 16, Dublin 18 area, there still seems to be a massive difference of opinion in what true house values should be.

    There appear to be a few obvious factors being omitted.

    Why are the actual sale prices still not being published? What is being hidden from us here? Could it be that property is still selling well below the asking prices? I don't accept that the details of sale prices could not be configured within days if those who possess the information wanted to release it.

    Are people taking into account that Tax Relief on mortgage payments will be coming to an end at the end of the year? That's less than 6 months away people. That's going to make mortgage payments higher for first time buyers, assuming you can get a mortgage at all.

    I am no expert, but I get the feeling that what the market is experiencing is more like the calm before the storm rather than a stabilisation of the market. I am of course open to correction but lets see what happens when Tax Relief stops, and the all important sale prices are published!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Magnis Date: Tuesday July 24, 2012 @12:43PM

    I agree with you totally. I personally feel that the sale price index is never going to happen. I have to ask why not? Who is going to suffer from the true sales values being published?
    The vested interests are not willing to have it on paper what house prices are actually making, because it will further destabilize the market.
    Anecdotal evidence says that houses are still not making anywhere near asking prices. Of course there is no written data to corroborate this as the vested interest won’t release the data.
    It’s all well and good taking a "sample" of selling prices and publishing details stating that house prices are on the rise. But how reliable are such samples when the samples themselves can be chosen to only reflect positive sales achieved and not the proportion of sales making less than asking prices.
    Stability will not and should not return to the market until there is independent information recorded and published to represent what is actually happening out in the market. Sample information is not adequate. A real-time database reflecting number of sales, asking prices and sale price achieved would not be a difficult system to establish. It could be updated by region, specific post code or estate or it might be more general. Either way, such a system is what is needed to restore confidence in the market.
    I do not understand why the government is willing to let the property market fester and fall into a state of abeyance. Talk of establishing such a system was long since promised and yet there is no sign of any development of the database.
    I see that house prices have fallen by another 1% in Dublin according to CSO in a report released today. It would be easier to develop a database than to release a report and then we would actually know what the true state of affairs was in the property market.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: frank wilson Date: Saturday July 7, 2012 @04:42PM

    Its only the the insane would rent now .....buy buy .... its the warren buffett dream market .... all the mail on sunday readers are waiting for the press to tell them the bottom has been reached ... it most likely happened 6 months ago in dublin . try buyinh now are you are competing.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Charlie Date: Wednesday July 11, 2012 @10:24AM

    Yes would think its a good time to buy in Dublin, but not the rest of the country.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: James Date: Wednesday July 11, 2012 @03:49PM

    Dublin only

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Tony Pony Date: Monday July 23, 2012 @11:33AM

    I wish a bank would give me the cash to buy a house in Dublin now that they are more reasonably priced. They were throwing it at me when I thought they were insanely over valued. My salary has not decreased. Funny eh?

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Paul Nash Date: Monday July 30, 2012 @04:43PM

    I wouldn't be so quick to wish for a bank loan just yet. Looks like house prices are going to continue to free fall in Dublin for some time yet. You may just knock 10-15% off a house if you wait until next year.
    Still so much uncertainty about prices at the moment. Come January 2014 it may cost more to own a house in Dublin than expected. Nobody knows exactly how the new house tax will effect them. if the tax is a fraction of the value of the house lower valued houses will become very attractive as higher value haouses become more expensive to own.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: Anybody Date: Monday July 30, 2012 @08:04PM

    What do you mean "Nobody knows exactly how the new house tax will effect them"?

    It can only have a negative affect on people. It means less money at the end of the month. What people don't know is how much less money they will have at the end of the month. Less money, less spending. Less likely to be able to afford repayments on a mortgage.

    Did you see where the banks are finally finished figuring out how to deal with the big boys and have now turned their guns on the small time property investors who may have bought one or two investment properties, but who have gotten into difficulty paying the mortgages.

    The banks in some cases are appointing rent receivers to get their money back from such investors.

    Talk about putting downward pressure on the property market. I know two people who bought a house before the boom and instead of selling up to buy a bigger house they decided to rent their existing property and still got approval for a second larger mortgage on the basis that the first property would pay for itself in terms of rent and would serve as a pension provision in the future. Now they are straddled with two hefty mortgages and the banks are looking to get them to sell the bigger more valuable property to pay off some of their debt.

    Here is the sickner. The asking price for houses in their area have devalued so much that when they do sell of their "dream home", they will still owe money to the bank for the dream home , and they still have to service the mortgage on the first house which is in rag order due to lack of maintenance. Why would they pump money into a rental property? Bottom line is this they are now worse off than they were before the boom. They will have a huge mortgage due to two houses, but only have a small house which they cannot afford to re-decorate.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2012

    Posted By: harry c Date: Friday August 10, 2012 @10:01PM

    I have noticed that the number of properties for sale has dropped significantly in, some parts of Dublin. In Malahide, for example, there were 160 or so properties for sale on Daft a year or so ago whereas now it is down to about 110. This I would think would indicate that prices will start firming as available stock declines. Much of this stock has been on the market for some time probably because they remain overpriced. Conjecture, however, will remain rife until such time as we are all privy to actual selling prices of homes as we have been promised by the authorities.

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