Economic outlook means property market adjustment not over yet

Constantin Gurdgiev, Economist

4th Jul 2011

Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev is the Head of Research and Strategy for St. Columbanus IA, and Adjunct Lecturer in Finance with Trinity College.

With property supplements in recent weeks featuring some 'news' about the impending revival in the commercial property lettings and the alleged reports of crowds of foreign investors flogging to the shores of Ireland, one gets an impression that things are only getting more desperate in the Irish property market.

Irish consumption is dead and household investment has collapsed. Their demise will persist for a long time as the state continues to drain savings and income through taxation and services inflation. Domestic businesses are starved of operating capital, and are in no position to invest as their state and private households customer base is shrinking. Not surprisingly, eight companies per day were going out of business in the first quarter of 2011.

Per latest quarterly national accounts, exports-oriented companies might be starting to cover some depreciation and amortization accumulated over three years of this depression, but any sizeable investment here is unlikely to materialize as long as the Euro crisis rages across the continent. At any rate, the MNCs are big on the exporting side of our national accounts, but our net exports, once repatriated profits are subtracted, accounted for just 3.42% of our GDP in Q1 2011. In other words - no realist today would count on MNCs riding to our rescue any time soon.

In the mean time, our banks and financial services in general will be deleveraging on the orders of regulators, into highly uncertain and risk-averse markets. No market participant outside the 'green jerseys' club in Dublin believes that this process will lead to a normalized lending environment before 2015 at best.

And then there is NAMA which, given its undefined and unchecked objectives and operational means, has the power and incentives to distort property markets for a decade.

All of this is consistent with historical evidence relating to the outcomes of combined occurrences of severe assets busts and debt overhangs in advanced economies. It is taking advanced economies like Japan decades of economic misery to come out of such busts with both monetary and fiscal policy tools at their disposal, plus long-term well-established competitive advantages in global trade.

Ireland has none of these three pillars of recovery.

Courtesy of the Euro we have no control over our interest rates and this time around, unlike post-2001-2002 slowdown, the ECB is not going to be accommodative of Irish need for negative real interest rates. Courtesy of the sky-high Government and quasi-Government debts, we have no fiscal policy pillar left either. Lastly, due to our excessive over-reliance in the past 20 years on MNCs for trade and investment, we have no specialisation of our own when it comes to international trade outside the small food sector. Irish comparative advantage vis-á-vis other small open economies around the world is our corporate tax rate - now much eroded by other countries lowering their taxes, and by the sky-high costs of state-controlled services and utilities. We have no well-anchored indigenous knowledge or skills and no unique specialisation to prevent gradual exits of MNCs activities from Ireland.

All of this adds up to a bleak forecast for Irish property markets both commercial and residential going forward.

The latest data from daft.ie on asking rents and prices clearly shows that there is some room for continued significant losses in residential real estate. Across all geographies covered in today's report, asking prices continued to fall and these falls are accelerating once again. Nationwide, asking prices are down 5% in three months through June 2011 - the steepest quarterly decline in 18 months.

Greater Dublin areas asking prices are now down between 44% (North County Dublin) and 55% (Dublin City Centre) relative to the peak. Taking assumed 5% average premium over asking prices at the peak and a similar discount today, the swing in prices in the capital is probably between 50% and 60%.

During the Celtic Tiger, city centre properties were the core focus for younger, professional and upwardly mobile families and individuals. These first time buyers were the core of our knowledge-intensive internationally traded services future. The lack of such buyers in the market today, despite growing presence of internationally trading services firms in Dublin and lower unemployment in professional occupations points to two features of our economy. Firstly, our upwardly mobile professionals do not feel confident in their medium-term future here in Ireland. Instead of putting down their roots here, they remain ready to up and move on with their careers abroad. Secondly, much of the new jobs created by the MNCs in traded services are being filled by imported highly mobile talent.

One more slightly technical factor is important to the consideration of the future of the property markets here. Looking at historical monthly data from 2005 through present, continued declines in asking prices are now putting renewed pressure on rents, which remain out of sync with long-term relationship to asking prices.

Using a simple rule of thumb that at the long-term real interest rates of 3% (the scenario toward which we are heading with ECB policies), the ratio of household income to purchase price should be around 2.8:1, the 3 year horizon average property prices projections based on per capita income in Ireland is in the region of €156,000. That is about 13.4% below today's average asking prices, allowing for a 5% sales discount currently - or 57% below the peak.

In other words, the vicious cycle of low yields and collapsing capital gains still has some room to run before Irish property markets can see a sustained stabilisation.


HIGHLIGHTS:

Sale Index
Asking Prices, Residential Sales

Stock and flow of properties
Stock and Flow of Sale Properties


SNAPSHOT:

Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide
Snapshot of Asking Prices Nationwide

Discuss This Article

  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: NAMAwinelake Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @08:06AM

    Well done to DAFT.ie for spending the time and money to produce the survey of asking prices. And to Dr Constantin Gurdgiev for a forward looking analysis, rich in detail.

    If I an reading the indices above correctly the index was 53.8 at the end of June 2011 and 57.3 at the end of March 2011. Which indicates a 6.1% quarterly drop (53.8/57.3-1) which I think is the largest drop in asking prices since the peak in 2007.

    I wonder why it is now that asking prices have reduced by so much? The Allsop/Space auction in April? Or have sellers and their agents finally reached a tipping point in this cycle?

    And by the way, we are down an average of 46.7% from peak, according to DAFT.ie. In Northern Ireland they are down over 44%.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Mark Fitz Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @11:21AM

    Good Post.

    Well spotted and seemingly correct though the published figures do not say as much in words, your calculation based on the "Snapshot" does support a figure of 6.1% which is frightening to be honest.

    I think this is perhaps the most honest report I have read so far since the start of the depression and property price collapse.

    Well done and well said.

    Thanks,

    Fitz

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Bob Date: Sunday July 17, 2011 @01:02PM

    2009 looked worse to me but maths was never my strong suit?

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Friday November 4, 2011 @02:48PM

    Dear Sir

    I am trying to ascertain what the occupancy rates are like in Cork city centre, for residentail investment apartments (2 beds) and have tried everywhere to get an accurate percenatage, including the CSO and no one is able to give me so much as an estimate. The CSO 2011 figures (prelim) suggest a vacany rate of 11.4% in housing units in Cork city, which has 55,919 units at present and 6,6386 but c. 40,000 of these are NOT investment properties but home, which are owner occupied or local authority houses etc.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: someone waiting to buy. Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @09:38AM

    having heard dr gurdgiev speaking on tv and radio over last couple of years, i know he shoots from the hip. he says what he sees and does not appear to put a glossy cover over an image, nor attempt to taint another. perhaps i'm being naieve, but i believe he does not seem to be painting a picture, in doing which, may improve his own personal position.

    it's something i've become very concious of lately.other so called economists come on the radio each week and give their opinion on the direction our economy is taking, despite not seeing what direction it was taking 4 or 5 years ago (morgan kelly excepted). my concern is that everyone of these economists has their own story to tell but fails to tell us that story. i would find it easier to accept an economist's opinion, if he/she started by telling us;
    -does he have a house
    -does he have a mortgage, and how big is it
    -does he have a staedy job
    -is the job well paid and capable of sustaining a mortgage
    -does he have other loans
    -AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, IF THE GOVERNMENT WERE TO FOLLOW HIS ADVICE, WOULD HE PERSONALLY BENEFIT!!!

    ONLY THEN could i take on board what the economist is saying.

    i like this current daft report, as it isn't just a series of percentages and cliches- it's a reality check. it is including most of the factors which are affecting the consumer, the potential house buyer, and therefore in my opinion, represents the most balanced report to date.

    he is obviously aware of misinformation being used to give the impression that the housing market is starting to pick up, when, taking everything into account, including the next 4 years of austerity measures, how could the market be stimulated.

    i personally don't have a mortgage. i have a reasonably safe job, but would consider moving abroad. i'm hoping to buy soon. looking at current rates of pay and possibly more tax increases and pay reductions to come, i believe there to be another drop of possibly 20% to come in house prices, so i won't buy yet.

    having read the above paragraph, would one look differently on the opinion laid out before said paragraph? despite the above being my belief, one could be swayed by being aware of my personal circumstances.

    so i would really love if presenters on the national airwaves, could try and extract such information from commentators before getting their opinion on the direction of the economy.

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  • The Daft House Price Report

    Posted By: Dara O'C. Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @11:47AM

    Well done to Constantin again.

    Constantin's great service to Ireland is becoming more & more widely appreciated.

    Realism is a breath of fresh air, without it we cannot fix our problems.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Ronan Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @12:42PM

    I always query a commentators agenda when they throw in acronyms like MNC. Are they trying to show their intellectual prowess by using words and phrases not used in general conversation or tell the story?

    Otherwise good commentary.

    R

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: joe Date: Sunday July 17, 2011 @04:33AM

    he uses the abreviation mnc which is multy national corporation to avoid unnessary long sentences nothing else , the man is telling us the truth, like m kelly too, their is no hidden agenda here, he conveyes to people detailed info very easily something most irish politicans and most irish economic academics including the media cannot .

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Forced retiree Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @01:12PM

    Anyone with fixed income understands the fear factor paralysing the market - of announced multiple unknown property based taxes.

    It is a case of "Who will buy" now - not "Who will sell".

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Patso the fatso Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @01:32PM

    I told you so................and just so you see how exact I was in my predictions I was the one who said last August that property prices in Dublin would further decrease in value by a further 14-16% year-on-year to December 2011, i.e. things were going to deteriorate further and not stabilise.

    And look at the reasons stated for this deterioration as indicated by Dr Constantine Gurdgiev in his report. See how similar his arguments mirror the things I said in my estimation of the market almost a year ago. Almost paraphrased, almost, but I said it first.

    Now here's the crunch: Next year will be the most difficult year for our economy and hence the property market will suffer its worst year of devaluation since 2008.

    Why? Well a continuation of all of the factors outlined above and a new pressure from Europe. This external pressure will have a very negative effect on our economy and our property market.

    Remember the line in the film Goodfellows,

    "F**k you pay me", well that line is more succinct and more direct than the political diatribe we will soon become inundated with, but it will have the same material effect. In plain English, we will be the Oliver Twists of Europe, with our dry bowl out for support. Europe wont entertain the notion without some mutual benefit. The Croke park deal will be a thing of the distant past and the Irish Civil service and social services will be severely curtailed. Pay cuts will be the least of the austerity impositions. Job cuts will be rampant. The state owned banks too will be forced to adopt a course of redundancy measures to appease our European Masters.
    Save a copy of this post for your own reference. Look back on it in Thirteen months time and see just how well I have assessed the situation.
    2011 Property priced fall by 15.4% year-on-year from January to January (2012).
    2012 Property Prices fall by 17-19% year on year from January to January (2013).
    Other significant happenings:
    Unemployment rises to 17.5%
    AIB make 3,800 redundancies.
    BOI make 2,700 redundancies.
    In excess of 70,000 properties on the market by August 2012.
    7,200 of these will be in the Dublin region.
    9,000 in Cork.
    Average national house price will drop to 167,000 by Q2 2012

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: rob Date: Wednesday July 6, 2011 @02:40AM

    spot on or maybe worse it has to happen there is simply nothing to kick in to stop this decline of course if ireland has to leave the euro or is forced to which is probaly
    being planned now by the ecb without formally admitting it property prices in ireland
    then could drop by another 40 percent overnight the germans and french are sick
    of the problems of the bailed out countries at this stage ireland could become
    a very poor country .

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Bloody delighted the market is falling apart Date: Friday August 12, 2011 @07:41AM

    I get a high from the market falling, I have been renting for 10 years in slums and paying over 2000 per month, nobody cared what tenants had to put up with, if you ask me probably a large amount of our government rent out properties so there was alwasy a vested interest in keeping the bubble rolling and not looking at the effects of greed in society of everybody wanting to screw everybody else. I for one feel this comment and report are the most honest todate, would somebody give this economists a job in the government and especially in RTE so that we begin as a nation to be fed the truth. I for one will wait another year to see how things pan out.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Mrs. Actively Looking Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @02:00PM

    I put in an offer today on a house, I sold and rented to weather as much of the down-turn as possible but I am fed up of being a tenant

    The house I put an offer in on would have been worth 900k and would have stretched my husband and I to our limit to buy - now it is 38% of that so it is affordable - so feck it, I am going for it.

    I read articles like the one above all the time and I believe most of it, but always at the back of my mind is that pessimism in Ireland is in vogue - it is often easier to hop on the band wagon of misery and join the choir of doom - so I listen, but I listen to my instinct too.

    Come on Ireland - dont let them get you down!

    F

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: albert hall Date: Sunday July 31, 2011 @10:28AM

    Daft was the price of houses and daft they still are until the Irish euro exchange rate falls to a level where the country can afford to trade. Add Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, "France." The UK can adjust its currency up or down otherwise it would be in the Eurosoup as well.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: PC Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @02:00PM

    Your honesty about the current situation is a breath of fresh air compared to the usual spin we get in these reports.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: bobeone Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @02:39PM

    WOW have to admit I'm a bit bowled over by the use of the term "depression". I was wondering when we would move from recession to depression. Something tells me that the government will not be so quick to use this term and do everything possible to cover it up. He's defiantly right about NAMA being able to distort property markets for a decade to come. Well done FF for instilling that legacy on us.
    When is the government going to face up to its responsibilities and put the property index data base in place. so many times I hear the government use terms like, well the rest of Europe have one, or the UK has one, when it comes to water charges and taxes. but we still seem to be the only ones that have no real way of tracking property. such a simple thing to do is put real data up on the housing, yet no one has the back bone to do it .

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: dublindanny Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @02:43PM

    perhaps if the good doctor and maybe Eddie Hobbs were in charge of our economy perhaps we might stand a chance of recovery.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: bobeone Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @03:14PM

    Are you mad .. Eddie Hobbs was one of the people promoting investing in housing during the boom years.. He even promoted doing house shares, and buying into Irish stocks market if you couldn't afford to borrow or buy out right. Eddie has been very quite since the bubble burst..

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: P Maguire Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @02:50PM

    Thanks for the assessment of the data provided by Daft Constantin. I have one point to make which is from my own observations on how people are going about selling houses. Previously most people were selling houses in the normal way via an estate agent, the EA shows people who are interested and hopefully someone makes an offer which is accepted. Now more and more people are selling via auctions. The advertised asking price/reserve/AMV is normally lower or around about the same as the selling price in an auction. EAs do this to generate as bidders as possible. While I have no doubt that asking prices have fallen, I do think that these prices have been distorted by auction asking prices and that asking prices seem to be falling at a faster rate than the previous quarter. It would be interesting to see how many houses are being sold by auction compared to the previous quarter.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Yields or Bust Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @03:33PM

    Here we go again - more downside in house prices and it ain't over, not by a long shot.

    I suggested some time ago that pricing in risky asset markets such as residential housing follows long run trend averages adjusted for inflation. Irish housing will and is conforming to those long established rules which are simply referred to as mean reversion i.e. a return to the average.

    Quite why Mark Fitz above is frightened is what's actually surprising to me.

    These long run trends are known well in advance. In fact data on risky asset pricing has been around and analysed for well over 200 hundred years so none of this pricing adjustment, to the well informed, should be surprising, frightening or any of these things - it should be seen for what it is - a return to long run averages, nothing more nothing less.

    And that's the critical issue in my view (and a point I've been making in these blogs over the past number of months) and that is that those who should know, the aforementioned 'well informed' have been paid to know the nature of these markets movements got the market pricing badly wrong, in fact embarrassingly badly wrong for the past decade.

    The only market participants in a leverage driven market, such as property, that count, are those that supply the leverage and that is our beloved banks.

    Estate agents, consumers, builders etc have no significant part to play in price setting in residential housing. The banks cannot in my view be simply allowed to hoist the monumental scale of their pricing error on novice property consumers, who simply don't know nor should be expected to know the long term trends in a market they have zero control over.

    Novice consumers employ and pay 'independent' advisors to tell them these things. The lending banks have failed in their role in this regard and common logic would dictate that they have to partly bear the responsibility for that error, be it through principal write downs, loan write offs or otherwise.

    The banks cannot nor should they be allowed to bankrupt individuals for their pricing error. Cries therefore from many quarters of new and improved bankruptcy procedures are necessary but they should not form the basis of a fix to this particular problem.

    This is as mis pricing error was sowed, nurtured and harvested by the banks but now unfortunately the bitter taste of their error is being eaten by novice property consumers. In any sane society it would be assumed that the party having primed and oiled the mis pricing gun should have to do the time as befits the crime in the same manner as the consumer. But as a society we dont seem to want this as a fix Ive yet to read a convincing argument as to why not.

    As previously suggested the minimum error in pricing from the peak will be 66% at the market average. The more important information for here onwards in the unwinding of this error will be the data on the rental market when Daft.ie next provides the market update in this regard.

    Rent is the real cost of housing. Calls from all manner of commentators for a country wide house price index tells me that, in the main, even those supposed 'experts' still don't get it.

    We don't need a country wide house price index we require a countrywide rental index.

    A detailed country wide house price index in the US didn't prevent a house price bubble developing across that nation up until 2006. Prices actually tell us very little about the state of a property market because unlike a cash market prices are not actually being set by end consumers but by the leverage intermediaries aka the lending banks. If there is no leverage then house prices are quite literally anyones guess and this is the situation we have today.

    The only long term metric which will stand the test of time is to revert to pricing housing off net rental yields. The long term average in the RoI is 7% net yields. When the market average gets to 7% and probably closer to 9%, given the current oversupply, can one actually be confident that house prices have bottomed. So talk of bouncing along the bottom etc when market average rental yields are still closer to 4% is nonsense. Prices will adjust to a minimum of 7% net rental yields and the sooner the better the likely adjustment will not be seen through increased rents but rather through an ongoing reduction in house prices, making the case for principal write offs all the more necessary.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Elane Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @11:01PM

    I follow all that you say up to the end paragraph. Could you please explain what you mean by the rental percentages you provide please. And how should a buyer know when the market has bottomed out?

    Please clarify if you have time.

    Thanks,

    E

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: buy wen nama out of market Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @03:49PM

    i come to hear so much about house prices that ive turned to simple facts, like my friend from poland says, u take the wages being offered to workers, factor in infaltion over the next five years 2% if were lucky add the cost of interest rate hikes 3% if were lucky, and then add rip of government taxes to pay for a bloathed public service and the trend of 1 person working, young couples have bin screwed before 2 wage couples means we can charge double for everything and what your left with to service a 3 bed semi is after living costs is 70k euro, its about the same as was in 97/98, hey presto people go back to work in a normal economy with normal hous prices, nama or no nama these are facts

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  • @someone waiting to buy

    Posted By: JohnDoh Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @04:19PM

    Too true.
    Mr Gurdgiev, along with Declan Ganley, is currently setting up
    an enterprise to move peoples saving out of Ireland to Switzerland.
    St Columbanus AG is it's name I believe. The more fear in the Ireland and fear
    for it's future the more funds will be willing to move!
    Every cloud has a silver lining.. ( for someone else!!)

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @04:33PM

    It is not pessimism but affordability and a realization that people do not want to be caught again on the wrong side of the market. Sorry, but until the dead debt ie the grotesque overvaluations, are a thing long past prices will continue to fall (I estimate circa 70-90% from peak to trough--as indeed all historic asset bubbles have done, eg tulips, South Sea, stocks, classic cars, etc All thru' hiostory one thing remains constant - the wish to make money fast without breaking sweat(or too much of it!) Never does it work if you do not get out in time --and who knows when that is?

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  • YOU WILL LOSE EVERYTHING

    Posted By: Telemachus Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @04:49PM

    Most of the people commenting here are going to lose everything they have,

    Once Ireland default's your euros will be traded back to you as devalued punts.

    You have a good think about what it did voting for the

    I expect to pick up a decent 2 bed in dublin in 3 years time for les then 100k, I will have my cash safely stored abroad and in metals.

    I may even be able to pick up a cheap ministerial car, everything will be sold off, greek fire-sale style.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Goldfinger Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @06:19PM

    HALLELUJAH !!
    Ognyov and Berezhkov are smiling tonight.
    It's never easy to swim against the tide Constantin.
    Intuitive realism is still alive today!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Eanna Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @07:33PM

    Yep,
    Still plenty of road to go.
    Another formula that is used is the selling price should equate to 15 years rental income.
    If your rental is 1000 a month, 12K per year , this equates to 180K as the selling price.(SP)
    outside of some main property hotspots, alot of rentals across the country are in the 500 to 700 euro bracket........SP of 90K to 126K..

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Newman Date: Monday July 4, 2011 @11:26PM

    25 years of age, rent 850pm
    55 years of age rent 850 pm
    75 years of age rent 850 pm
    82 years of age (if lucky)rent 850 pm

    25 years of age mortgage 850 pm
    55 years of age mortgage 850 pm
    56 years of age mortgage 0
    66 years of age mortgage 0
    75 years of age mortgage 0
    82 years of age (if lucky) mortgage 0
    Based on 30 year mortgage if lucky enough to still be alive at 82 you would have
    27 years rent free with an extra
    10,000 pa to enjoy during retirement
    Some people choose to rent some choose to buy! Usually the people that say they are going to buy In a few years time find another excuse in a few years time such as.. If only I had bought last year!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday July 5, 2011 @02:20PM

    Renting isn't a very viable long-term option in Ireland, no long term lets like other countries, so you risk being turfed out at a months notice on continually renewed 1 year lease.

    More people would be happy to rent, if rents and leases could be fixed for 5 or 10 years

    There are a lot of distortions in the Irish property market which make it very difficult to make blanket comparisions to other countries.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Thursday July 7, 2011 @09:09PM

    Yeah, I bought a house a few months ago (fell approx 60 percent from peak), I was house sharing before with 2 others, cost me 350 euro a month in rent.
    I bought a nice 3 bed semi, knocked a fair bit off deposit wise, my mortgage is 500 euro (5 year fixed).
    I'm going to rent out a room for 300 (could get more but not greedy) so my mortgage is now 200 euro a month.

    I think if you can pick up a house for a reasonable amount I would go for it......thats if you can get mortgage approval!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: bushi Date: Thursday May 2, 2013 @01:31PM

    this is funny and simplistic way of thinking- it assumes, (where did I hear that before?) that housing prices cannot go (and significantly) down. Therefore, stopping short from buying RIGHT NOW, and waiting until the price will return to normal (most likely, it will overshoot to the downside before returning to the mean - that's what bubbles does), will give you (again simplistic, but just to make a comparable point) something like that:

    25 years of age, rent 850pm
    35 years of age ->housing prices went down 50%, you are taking on the mortgage of say, 500 pm. Short term, low interest rate, low overall interest payment
    45 years of age - mortgage 0. Happy days.

    ...etc. But hey, we have been told, that house prices "can only go up, all right, and some of us seem to (still!) believe in that fallacy ;)

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday July 5, 2011 @06:16AM

    Interesting comments and observations from all contributors. I find it appaling that the housing market hasn't bottomed out yet and it seems that there is no confidence in purchasing property. Somebody once said that you buy when things are down. Maybe those of us that can afford to buy now should and try to contribute to kickstarting the economy.It's got to start sometime.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: someone waiting to buy. Date: Tuesday July 5, 2011 @09:22AM

    inrelation to estate agents, give them their due, they're keeping the market somewhat alive. they are trained to make you think you need to buy that house. this time last year, i looked at a house, 3 bed in south dublin, which i really liked, and although considerably cheaper than 2 years previous, i still believed it was overpriced and made what i considered a fair bid. the house sold for more than i bid.

    the estate agent, then, informed me that they'd seen a rise in prices and in relation to me, i could be missing the boat if i didn't make a purchase. he even had a story about someone so disheartenend about not buying a particular house, that several times after the sale went thru, the person drove by, looking regretfully at the house he'd missed out on.

    thankfully, i relied on my own judgement. the particular house i looked at last year was in the early to mid 400k range, and i would guess, has dropped in the region of 60-80k since then. i'm still seeing elements of the same sentiment expressed by other estate agents, and i think the real skill is, that they actually sound like they believe what they're saying.

    well hats off to that profession, if i was selling, that's what i'd want, but as a buyer, i'm thinking- how many more years would an extra 60-80k add to my mortgage?
    i have the luxury of knowing- i don't need to own a house. apart from the 20-30 year saddle of debt, it would tie me to this country until it was paid off.

    i'm in no hurry, however, with a further reduction of 20%, i would then be happy enough to pay what i would consider a fair price to the vendor. i don't expect the fire sale. this was predicted a year ago and didn't materialise, and perhaps just as well, as i think it would cause a further collapse of our fragile ecoonomy.

    my guess is, the reason the fire sale never occured, is that most who have bought their houses, do actually like what they have made their home. with 'real 80's' playing on the radio in the background, i do remember a time when we were building towards something. there was no massive wealth, but there was a positivity. problemis, we never stopped building, and rather than looking to the future, we just became obsessed with all things material.

    i do hope we return to who we once were.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday July 5, 2011 @12:36PM

    Constantin is obviously a very depressed negative man who would like to see the econoy suffer here as he is not Irish and ultimately loves knocking everything Irish....we do not need people like him here talkiong down the economy....if we are such a mess..then why is he living here..because he makes a fortune complkaining about us Irish and our mistakes...well look at the mess his own country has been through....we will get out of this and do alot better than he would want us to

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: PC Date: Tuesday July 5, 2011 @03:31PM

    To the above poster your spelling is atrocious, your opinions obviously biased and xenophobic. I suspect you invested in property and expect everyone to talk up the market so you get your payday, while not caring how much burden you shovel onto younger generations. The economy is in the state it is because of high house prices and speculation. Lets not go back there.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Realist Date: Tuesday July 5, 2011 @03:02PM

    Given the upcoming series of budgets are going to introduce yet more hidden charges on property in the form of:
    (1) water charges in the forthcoming budget and
    (2) a property tax in the following budget which will act as a disincentive to own property if the decision is marginal
    Also there is the fact that 9bn more has to be cut from demand due to tax increases and spending cutbacks by Government to the end of 2015, not to mention a normalisation of base ECB interest rates to circa 2% -2.5% over the next 12-18 months, which will be the first real test of those people on tracker mortgages (over 50% of total residential mortgages) - who have not yet being affected by interest rate increases.
    There is also the fact that mortgage interest relief for future first time buyers will be abolished from the end of Decmeber this year, it was meant to conclude at the end of June...but extended obviously when industry pressure groups pointed out to the Government that that this would further undermine the first time buyer market (effectively cutting a subsidy) through lowering the borrowing capacity of each borrower, even before a propspective bank analysed their ability to repay after stress testing @ +2%/+3% over the current variable / fixed rate product on the market.
    I believe current government policy is to build from the bottom by supporting rental levels, drive up demand in this area and that this will attract investors back into property once yields reach 7%/8%. This will be a long term painful process, but will be aided by the inability of banks to lend and the willingness of people to have their own place

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Billy the fish Date: Tuesday July 5, 2011 @03:42PM

    Anonymous Poster, I have read several of the messages left by you over the past couple of years. You contradict yourself on a regular basis.
    I have also read your poetry and I cannot fathom how you have so many different styles of writing.
    Do you have a conflict of personality?

    This good doctor gives us his external assessment of the situation from a totally removed point of view and you go getting angry at him.

    Not very nice. You should take your beating and be thankful for the human contact.

    Billy

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Possible overseas buyer Date: Sunday July 10, 2011 @06:35PM

    The recent distressed auction in Cork was a wash out. Its all over Daft.ie that the prices are going to fall 20% yet they had the starting prices too high?

    I believe only 2 lotts sold?

    Why not have an auction with no reserve and determine the true market value?


    Just a thought, its an expensive country too, why do hotels in Galway/Dublin charge more for a pint then I can buy in Londons West End? Are they trying to kill the tourist trade too?

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Roice Date: Monday July 11, 2011 @02:19PM

    Possible overseas buyer,

    I can only guess that you intend buying a property in Cork as the Dublin equivalent to the Cork Auction was a complete success. Check out Allsops Irish Property auctions to see for yourself. Almost all of the properties were sold for over their reserve price which goes to show you that buyers are flocking to get good bargains at these outings.

    I don't see how you can write off 20% property value so easily. If I were you I would be buying property now at the rock bottom prices. Roumer has it that many of the properties sold at the Allsops auction were bought by rich Chinese businessmen as a buffer to their portfolios.

    There are many negative comments on this blog and this Dr Constantine Gurdgiev doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. If he did, he would be a rich man by now instead of a lecturer.

    Buy now or you will all be sorry for listening to people like Namawinelake, Yields or Busts, or the socalled Realist. We have reached the bottom and the only way is up.

    Bry

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: someone waiting to buy. Date: Monday July 11, 2011 @08:14PM

    hmmmmm,

    yeah, roight........
    interest rates just risen again, that means credit harder to get, as a result of reduced capacity to pay off loan....... 3.6bn in austerity cuts in budget around the corner.........

    it ain't negativity, it's reality.....

    good to see 80 or so properties going in the allsop auction. that's 80 less buyers for the properties on sale in the country......

    i think i'll wait another wee while, next spring sounds good, when we've seen the effect of the budget.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Thursday July 14, 2011 @10:10PM

    The only hope the country has is if the public sector takes massive wage reductions which would make up the guts of the 3.6 billion, if this does not happen extra taxes heaped on the average worker and this will once and for all sink the domestic economy, which will put another 100k on the dole, then there will be no money anyway to pay the public sector wage bill......there is no escape.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Mary Lann Date: Monday July 18, 2011 @10:31AM

    "The only hope the country has is if the public sector takes massive wage reductions which would make up the guts of the 3.6 billion, if this does not happen extra taxes heaped on the average worker and this will once and for all sink the domestic economy, which will put another 100k on the dole, then there will be no money anyway to pay the public sector wage bill......there is no escape."

    Yeah.........after the builders, plasters, electricians, dentists and private doctors all pushed the envelope out by increasing their charges and rates along with other unscrupulous private industry leaches; now you can all jump on the band wagon and blame the public sector.

    Get real you coward....You weren't complaining when the private sector salaries were averaging 2.28 times the salary paid to those people working in the public sector. You weren't rushing in to fill the vacancies because the salaries were too low for you.

    The emptiest vessels make the most sound.... and its people like you who spew populist rhetoric who have gotten us into this mess.

    I am a nurse. I qualified before the boom ended for people like you who I treated daily for broken arms, sprains, cuts and worse after your Champaign fuelled drinking binges. I am on the seventh tier of a salary scale which means that it will be years before I reach the top of my scale as there are fixed yearly increments.
    Even then, my salary will be below the national average for someone who has studied and qualified with my years of experience. I get no bonuses; I work shifts and unsociable hours. I am abused daily and have suffered several physical assaults from patients. I am constantly at risk of contracting life threatening diseases. On top of this, I am on my feet for over seventy percent of my shift, I have to fill out mountains of paperwork, lift heavy patients, feed those patients unable to do so, change soiled bed sheets, clean up blood and vomit and faeces.

    So I would like for you to please explain how you categorise me so easily and say that I should suffer further pay cuts.
    I can't get a mortgage as it is on my salary. So don't go blaming me for the mess.

    When I see the private sector suffer the same pay cuts as myself and my colleagues, then I might think that there is some equity in the burden of pay cuts. Until the average pay scheduled over graduated cycles can show that there is equity in pay scales for given experience and expertise, then I am not willing to suffer any more pay cuts as it is simply unfair.

    I have recently been burdened by increased taxes, pay cuts and pay levies which all amount to a pay cut in excess of 18.8%. This is starting from a base which was already more than 45% less well paid than people in the private sector with similar experience and expertise. So get real and get your facts straight. The public sector is not the fault or cause of the recession.

    I am furious at weak minded people like you who spout rubbish like "The public sector has permanent jobs and security and pensions".

    We pay for our pensions, we are paid much less than the average private sector worker and our jobs are not at all secure. On top of this, we are subject to much more stringent and imposing contracts. We are subjected to severe pay scales with annual increments and no bonuses. We are obligated on the most part to work shift work and weekends. We are more susceptible to abuse and violence than most private sector workers are.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Thursday July 21, 2011 @11:47AM

    What planet are you living on, there a close to 500k people on the dole, you have a secure job, excellent terms and conditions and pay rates.

    "We pay for our pensions, we are paid much less than the average private sector worker and our jobs are not at all secure."......are you having a laugh?, how many PS workers have been made redundant?, a big fat zero I tell you. Persions???, what planet are you living on?, you get a massive amount of your pension paid by my taxes, I pay for my pension. Check the average wage for a PS worker against the private sector and see if you are "paid much less than the average private sector ".
    You are the one living in a bubble, the fact of the matter is we are borrowing a huge amount to pay for all these so called crap conditions you work for. I know there are other sectors who sucked the money out of people and still are, you and your kind voted for FF on mass because they gave you everything you wanted.

    "I have recently been burdened by increased taxes, pay cuts and pay levies which all amount to a pay cut in excess of 18.8%. This is starting from a base which was already more than 45% less well paid than people in the private sector with similar experience and expertise" .......SO IF THE PRIVATE SECTOR IS SO GREAT WHY ARE YOU NOT WORKING IN IT????, I TELL YOU WHY BECAUSE YOU ARE TALKING FROM A VESTED INTEREST POINT OF VIEW, USUAL WAFFLE AND DENIAL, WHY ARE PEOPLE IN THE PS NOT LEAVING JOBS AND GOING TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR IF ITS SO GREAT IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR????,

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Michael Date: Sunday July 24, 2011 @12:44AM

    Your taxes are paying the all public sector salaries? Get real, you make it sound like people in the public sector don't pay taxes themselves. I agree with Mary on this topic, you are just one of those people who post inflammatory remarks to provoke a response. A Joe Duffy listener no doubt.
    I can't believe that you blame the fact that FF were in power for so long on the public service.
    Have you ever read back over what you are about to post and thought to yourself that it sounded absurd?
    Dude its people like you who give private sector workers a bad name. Every statement that Mary made is true. Look up the figures for yourself.
    When I was working on the building sites I was taking in 1600 euro a week if I worked Saturday too; and that was with two years experience as a brickie. I could afford to pay into a pension and insurance and still be on more than double a nurses salary.

    A nurse on the third point of the scale takes in about 26,000 euro a year. See http://www.payscale.com/research/IE/Job=Staff_Nurse/Salary for details.
    I know because my girlfriend is a nurse and I have seen both sides of the coin.

    I am one of the ones who had a hard time after the bust and was supported by my girlfriend until I found a new job which took me nearly eight months. I never went on the dole.

    I wasn't very good in school but I have enough cop-on to know that without hospitals, guards, schools, prisons etc. we would not function as a society.

    I also learned enough about mathematics to figure that even if all of the 330,000 public service workers voted FF then FF would still need in excess 0f 620,000 votes from the remaining private sector workers to get elected. Therefore it is more likely that the private sector can be blamed for voting in FF on so many occasions.


    And the old cherry; "So if the private sector is so great then why don't you work in it?". Come on, can't you fashion even a reasonably articulate and mature argument? If I want to become a firefighter or an ambulance driver and if that is what I always wanted to do since I was a child, I would have no hesitation in telling someone like you who came up with that argument to take a hike.

    You might notice if you bothered reading Marys post that she was not complaining about her occupation. She simple explained what was involved in the day to day job. She did this to highlight to you the difference in conditions between one occupation and another so that you could appreciate why she was angered by your remarks.

    I showed your statement to Alison my girlfriend and she just shrugged it off. That is because nurses are subject to so much abuse they get used to it. That shouldn't be the way.

    Are you on the Dole Paul? You come across as a Guinness philosopher. A person who agitates others with trifling statements.

    Oh sorry, I just thought I would make some general remarks about you. Doesn't matter though, because there is nothing you can do about it on such an open forum. Its just free speech isn't it! just my opinion.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Wednesday July 27, 2011 @06:06AM

    Here is a timely reminder of why pay cuts in the PS must take precedence over tax rises, the more you tax the less people spend which puts more and more on the dole which increases the walfare bill which wipes out the money gained for tax increases and around you will go, again this is nit rocket sceince, its just simple logic.
    You can argue about this and that but we are borrowing 20 billion a year, there is no escape from this.

    http://www.examiner.ie/business/40000-jobs-at-risk-as-retail-sales-fall-162312.html

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Wednesday July 27, 2011 @08:01PM

    Pay rates in 2007 below, I know there have been pay cuts but even with them a nuses starting salary is very good.

    http://www.hse.ie/eng/services/newscentre/2007_Archive//March_2007_/Current_Nurses_Dispute.html

    You just still don't seem to get it, public servents have jobs for life and do less hours for more pay, get pay rises every year no matter how much we have to borrow, this is not to mention other perks, average sick days etc etc.
    Yes PS went a very long way to getting FF in, 330 PS workers, how many are married?, lets say we are up to half a million votes, that goes along way to getting them back in time and again, do you not remember bench marking?, guess who voted FF that year?
    Also add all the semi states into the mix and other vested interests (private sector) your there.

    This country takes in 30 odd billion in tax and spends 50 billion, this is not rocket science, its just common sense. You can't tax your way out of a recession, I know PS workers would love to see the average persion on the dole get hammered and this may happen but it still will not near enough bridge the gap. If you keep taxing people they stop spending and put more people on the dole, again just common sense. You have to cut the cloth to measure simple. How do you think we should bridge the gap?, I would love to hear more waffle.

    You were earning 1600 as a bricky, so what ?, were is your job now?, you just proved one of my points, you do not have a job for life, how much is that worth alone?, you were very lucky you had a person who does have a job for life to fall back on, tell that to the nearly 500k people on the dole now, those types of jobs were never going to last, boom time rubbish again just like PS wage levels.

    And by the way a nurse can work in the private sector, so asking why she does not work in the wonderful private sector (I think we all know the answer to that) is is more then a valid question.

    I don't mind paying tax for services, what does my nut in is we pay hugh taxes in this country and get nothing even when we had money to spend, I would like to model this country on France, they pay high taxes but get the best.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Jo Date: Tuesday July 12, 2011 @01:19PM

    Can't help but thing that Ireland is right in grasping the nettle and quantifying and facing up to the debt.

    The US and UK are living a life a delusion right now. They both devalued their currency, massively and they have killed off their housing markets to sustain high house prices and keep delusional valuations on banks balance sheets. Very little is being sold, of course, because nobody has any money. But prices are high so it keeps the myth alive.

    Maybe Ireland will emerge from the doldrums a lot sooner because of it.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Stephen Walsh Date: Tuesday July 19, 2011 @03:39PM

    What % below asking prices are houses selling for? 50%?

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: T Date: Tuesday July 19, 2011 @10:35PM

    It depends on location. In the country towns and small rural cities, houses are selling for as low as 40% below what the sellers were originally asking. In the bigger population centers; naturally the selling prices are closer to the asking prices but again this is area specific. Galway city house prices are making around 10-18% below their asking prices.

    Cork, where there is not a lot of demand, houses are selling for anywhere between 5%-25% below the asking prices. I know of one sale personally where a house that was on the market for two years sold for over 40% less than the asking price. But the property need extensive renovation.

    Dublin where I am based now; selling prices are surprisingly varied. Certain areas which once were well sought after are no longer as well sought after, but that said there has never been so much premium quality property available on the market. Buyers can literally make ridicules offers on properties, fail the bid and walk off to another property to do the same.

    Builders are not really buying property at the moment which is a worrying trend as it highlights the fact that there are significantly more risks associated with "buying to renovate" project properties. The turn around time might see a drop in property values sufficient to wipe out most of the financial gain, i.e. while the builder is doing up a house within a certain budget with a foreseen margin in mind, any deviation in the market can offset the foreseen profit margin.

    At the moment in Dublin you can expect to get somewhere in the region (on average) of between 1% - 30% less than you are looking for if you are selling a property. Buyers are finding it very difficult to get loans from the banks at the moment. There are huge numbers of properties on the market. The huge influx of foreign investors mentioned earlier in a post listed above does not exist.

    All indications point to one fact in the property market at the moment. Prices will continue to fall. They were last year, they are at the moment and they will next year. If you want to buy a house now you can take your pick. Areas where houses rarely came on the market are now flush with properties to sell. And in fact many of the foreigners who bought holiday homes in Ireland are selling them and have been selling them over the past two years. Many will re-enter the market when they feel that things have reached the bottom.

    But as every economist will tell you. When a bubble bursts, it takes a good long time for the air to leave the balloon. As a salesmen I can tell you that the property market is not a safe investment yet. There is still a ways to go before we start to level out.

    Sure there will be buyers and sellers and houses will be bought and sold regardless of what advice I or any of you write down here.
    The important thing to remember is that at some stage things will even out and property will find its base price again.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Wednesday July 20, 2011 @04:44PM

    Re the above post;

    How can anybody know to such exactness what is happening in the market. Where do you get your figures in percentage terms. What you say seems like it could be true as everybody knows that properties are not making anywhere near their asking price. But when the government cant get the figures right, how can you claim to know so much about the property markets in Dublin, Galway and Cork being just a "salesman"?

    I read back over the last few reports by MyHome.ie and by Daft and although there are indications that the price decline has accelerated as pointed out by one of the above poster; there are no concrete figures to show that they are falling as fast as some suggest on this site.

    House sale prices are certainly not 50% below asking prices. In some areas there is stories that actual sale prices are well below asking prices but these are generally undesirable locations. They might be rural, or have a history of flooding etc, or they might be in very bad condition.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Wednesday July 20, 2011 @08:22AM

    Houses are not selling. Thats the big problem. Who's going to buy with so much uncertainty about. You would have to be mad to buy at the moment. And you would have to have a lot of the money yourself before you go to the bank for a mortgage.

    So the question should read; "At what price would people buy at given the social and economic uncertainty?"

    Answer: unless the property is a give away, people are going to be very slow about making an offer.

    I sold a house in Clondalkin that I could no longer afford to rent out as the rent I was able to get was 300 euro a month less than my mortgage repayments. I put it on the market with DNG as my agent. After nine months and three price drops I still hadn't sold it so I changed auctioneer to Remax and was told that my sale price was well above the market average for my area, so I was advised to drop the price by a further 20K to 180K to get a quick sale. I had three viewings and two offers. One offer was insulting and totally opportunistic at 135K. The second offer was opportunistic but I was advised to consider that other houses in the area had been on the market for almost two years and still weren't selling. After a bit of haggling where I felt I was the beggar I finally sold for 158K. So what ever that is in percentage terms thats what is happening to the market. My house was originally on the market for 256K. I bought it in 2007 for 344K.

    :(

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Tony P Date: Monday July 25, 2011 @02:41PM

    There is so much negativity about the price of houses whereas the real question is affordability (and in my experience - operating costs i.e heating/maintenance) and suitability (close to schools, shopping etc). If you plan to live in a house for the foreseeable future and you can well afford to whats the problem? Prices will eventually rebound, albeit slowly, but they will.
    The real indicator is that people need somewhere to live and there is a natural level of house purchase that is sustainable. Since we have not been buying houses for 3+ years there has to be pent up demand. But fear and zombie banks are blockers.
    Whats funny is that with all the Irish negativity houses will end up being undervalued and there will be another rush on houses in a few years time.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: slim Date: Monday July 25, 2011 @07:41PM

    I'm looking at buying later this year. I think paying rent is wasting money.
    If house prices drop by 10-15% in a year thats similar to the amount of money I would have wasted on rent.
    What determines when to buy is when and how much mortgage tax relief can be gained by buying now rather than later.... something I need to research...

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: tool Date: Tuesday July 26, 2011 @12:41PM

    15% OF 400,000 EURO IS 60,000. yOU NEED TO SHOP AROUND FOR RENT MATE.

    PLUS, HAVE YOU CONSIDERED THAT EUROPE ACTUALLY NEEDS TO REGULATE THE MARKET TO A GREAT EXTENT. THEREFORE INTEREST RATES SHOULD NOT EXCEED 6% OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS. EVEN FACTORING THAT INTO YOUR CALCULATIONS, RENT IS THE ONLY OPTION AT THE MOMENT.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Wednesday July 27, 2011 @05:25AM

    Renting is a waste of money. Its high time that more of us moved back in with our parents. Thats the only viable option I can see.

    Today the government introduced a levy of 100 euro per house to home owners in lieu of a property tax which it intends to introduce within two years. The minister involved, an economist, says that this tax will be in the region of 700 euros per household, but the exact basis will not be established until the government establish an equitable taxation system. It may be based on square footage or number of rooms; or it may be based on location and property value. The last idea makes me smile as this would infer that the government establish a property value index which is what most people here want to see anyway so I don't see this happening. The minister said that it is likely that houses under a certain value (quoted 250,000) will be exempt from this tax. Although this figure may be revised downward to broaden the taxation net. Hence a negative downward pressure on house prices. This tax is only one of the proposed money raising strategies it intends to phase in.
    The other proposal is to introduce a charge for water usage to facilitate upgrades and maintenance to our water supply. This will be an annual charge in the region of 300 euro per year.

    So renting or buying, you will no doubt be affected by these new levies and taxes and there will be a net downward pressure introduced to stifle house prices further.

    Sorry to be a wet blanket but the news for property prices is not good. My estimation is that property prices will continue to decline at an accelerated pace. Where and when to buy will be a matter further complicated by the associated levies which must be a factor in any calculations.

    So hello mum and dad, I'm home. I'll be staying for a while.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday July 26, 2011 @09:07PM

    Pay rates in 2007 below, I know there have been pay cuts but even with them a nuses starting salary is very good.

    http://www.hse.ie/eng/services/newscentre/2007_Archive//March_2007_/Current_Nurses_Dispute.html

    You just still don't seem to get it, public servents have jobs for life and do less hours for more pay, get pay rises every year no matter how much we have to borrow, this is not to mention other perks, average sick days etc etc.
    Yes PS went a very long way to getting FF in, 330 PS workers, how many are married?, lets say we are up to half a million votes, that goes along way to getting them back in time and again, do you not remember bench marking?, guess who voted FF that year?
    Also add all the semi states into the mix and other vested interests (private sector) your there.

    This country takes in 30 odd billion in tax and spends 50 billion, this is not rocket science, its just common sense. You can't tax your way out of a recession, I know PS workers would love to see the average persion on the dole get hammered and this may happen but it still will not near enough bridge the gap. If you keep taxing people they stop spending and put more people on the dole, again just common sense. You have to cut the cloth to measure simple. How do you think we should bridge the gap?, I would love to hear more waffle.

    You were earning 1600 as a bricky, so what ?, were is your job now?, you just proved one of my points, you do not have a job for life, how much is that worth alone?, you were very lucky you had a person who does have a job for life to fall back on, tell that to the nearly 500k people on the dole now, those types of jobs were never going to last, boom time rubbish again just like PS wage levels.

    And by the way a nurse can work in the private sector, so asking why she does not work in the wonderful private sector (I think we all know the answer to that) is is more then a valid question.

    I don't mind paying tax for services, what does my nut in is we pay hugh taxes in this country and get nothing even when we had money to spend, I would like to model this country on France, they pay high taxes but get the best.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Friday July 29, 2011 @12:25AM

    Taxi driver rates 1997/2006 comparison = 271% increase in average Dublin fair price.

    Fish and Chips 1997/2006 comparison = 143% increase in Dublin prices.

    General Groceries 1997/2006 comparison = 92% increase in Dublin prices.

    Pint of Guinness 1997/2006 comparison = 112% average increase in prices (figure taken from a comparison of prices from 22 different public houses in the greater Dublin area).

    House prices 1997/2006 = 373% average increase in house prices over a ten year period (1995-2006) http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/permanent_tsbesri_house_p/

    Block layer rate 1997/2006 = 278% average increase in price per block (18 inch cavity blocks top rate = 1.30 each in 2007)

    Plumber rates 1997/2006 = 214% average price comparison taken from fifteen plumbing companies hourly rates in greater Dublin area (historical receipts)

    Doctors fees = 1997/2006 = 278% average increase in private consultation fees over ten year period.

    Electrician fees 1997/2006 = 302% average increase in charges for wiring in electrical socket (1997 = 18 pound/ 2007 = 70 euro).

    Dental fees 1997/2006 = 285% average increase in cost of annual checkup.

    Creche fees 1997/2006 = 342% average increase in fees in greater Dublin area

    Dry cleaning 1997/2006 = 220% average increase in charges for dry cleaning over a ten year period.

    Television license fee 1997/2006 = 243% increase in fees over ten year period

    Car prices 1997/2006 = 314% indicates average increase in cost of purchase over ten year period

    Technicians salary in private sector 1997/2006 = 263% average increase in salaries paid to technicians in Dell Computers over ten year period.

    Hair dresser fees 1997/2006 = 197% indicates average rise in hair stylist charges for highlights on "full head" in the greater Dublin area.

    Mechanics charges 1997/2006 = 302% indicates increase in hourly rate charges for mechanics in greater Dublin area for period 1997-2007.

    Do you see a trend emerging........if not then I will explain it more clearly. Of the list above only one area of increase was directly associated with public sector. Now check the increase in Staff Nurse salary over the period 1997-2006 and notice that a nurses salary only increased by 78% over the same period.

    Private sector leaders blamed the hike in prices on inflation. Yet the nurses union was able to identify to the labor court that Nurses pay grades were not increasing at the same rate as people in the private sector doing similar jobs.

    Hence one of the grounds for benchmarking.

    P.S. Do people in the private sector not marry? is that the point you were trying to make?

    Read a book or two on politics. See who it was who gained most from FF cronyism. Perhaps you think the builders and people looking for planning permission were all public service workers but I assure you they were not.

    Next time you want to publish a fairytale and incite hate and spite, try writing a note on the taxi drivers, chip shop owners, publicans, veterinary surgeons, solicitors, conveyors, architects, landscape gardeners, builders, oil station owners, car mechanics, delivery companies, creche owners, cloths retailers, cinema owners, barbers, bakers and candle stick makers who all increased their prices on average in excess of 200% during the period 1997 and 2007. But don't go crowing about the Nurses....and dont write any more on this site where people come to find out if there is anything new in the property market.

    You are probably a sinn feiner canvasing through negative media so I'll say no more. I don't want to fuel your ego.

    Good luck to you now. And good luck to FG too.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Saturday July 30, 2011 @06:21PM

    You don't have to tell me about the above people you listed that charge massive rates, I put them in the same vested interest catagory as the PS, what they are going through now will be just a taste of what is to come i'm afraid.

    You still don't get it, we have a tax take of 30 billion and spend 50 billion, please enlighten me as to how you are going to bridge this gap?, oh what is that I hear???, huge tax increases and cut the dole in half (and you still would not be there)!, oh I forgot what is left of the economy will be gone, please leave our overpaid PS alone we don't get paid well!!!......(please check the average wage in the public and private sectors)

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Tim O'Kane Date: Tuesday August 2, 2011 @11:28AM

    "You don't have to tell me about the above people you listed that charge massive rates, I put them in the same vested interest category as the PS, what they are going through now will be just a taste of what is to come Im afraid."

    Paul, Paul, Paul. You are after shooting yourself in the foot. You say that you need not be told about the "people you have been listed that charge massive rates" and that you "put them in the same vested interest category as the PS"; yet they clearly all private sector earners!

    You have somehow lost your moral compass and now you wish to castigate everybody for working and earning money.

    Perhaps this was a slip of the fingers brought on by one extra cold pint of Guinness too much. Perhaps the narrow stretch of grey matter where rational thoughts are normally produced has been frozen over for the winter.

    That will do Paul, thatll do.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Tuesday August 2, 2011 @04:59PM

    "Paul, Paul, Paul. You are after shooting yourself in the foot. You say that you need not be told about the "people you have been listed that charge massive rates" and that you "put them in the same vested interest category as the PS"; yet they clearly all private sector earners!"

    How do you make that out?, I put the PS in the same catigory as all the above mentioned and a whole lot more in this country, screw everyone and to hell with it, i've always said this.

    The PS is a vested interest just like the rest and I still have not heard of any detail as to how to bridge the gap between spend and tax take, what is that, are you afriad to voice your opinion on the matter?, the money has to come from someplace, but go on please continue ignoring the question, it speaks for itself.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Barry in Cork Date: Friday July 29, 2011 @10:59AM

    "I know PS workers would love to see the average persion on the dole get hammered and this may happen but it still will not near enough bridge the gap"

    Yeah......o.k. You obviously are insighting feelings of anger.

    The poster above who you insulted by the way, got it exactly right when they said that you were a "Guinness philosopher".

    I see people like you in the pub at closing five nights a week. I work in a pub.
    I hear people like you complaining about the public service all the time. You don't see the irony in the situation where you are on the dole complaining about people who are working. You say "they have perminent jobs, a pension and good conditions". But you are the one complaining now that they get paid too much.


    Barry

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Saturday July 30, 2011 @05:21PM

    I've worked for the last 16 years, where is all this dole stuff coming from?, I want proper public service and am not afraid to pay for it, but that is not the case, we pay high tax and get zero, we live in a totally self serving country (publicans would fall into the catagory especially), I suppose it is the paddy way, screw everyone once i'm ok, no collective thinking, look at the proper run coutries in Europe, they think a totally different way to us, we are a totally lost race of people and we will soon be paying dearly for our past choices (some a lot more then others as usual).

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Thomas Lippmann Date: Tuesday August 2, 2011 @11:18AM

    Hi Paul,

    Could you please indicate which countries you are talking about when you say look at the proper run countries in Europe, they think a totally different way to us".....

    You might want to do a little research into those countries before you post any more nonsense. Every country in Europe has problems of its own.

    In France they had riots in Paris caused by failure to treat Algerian refugees with the respect they had deserved. Thousands of Algerians had fought on the side of France in past wars and had been promised equal treatment.

    Iceland, Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal all have huge financial and economic problems.

    England is currently experiencing economic problems and having to cut military budget for the first time in how-many years.

    Germany, the most buoyant and resilient Country within Europe but suffers from the lack of raw materials. Its decision to decommission nuclear power plants means that it now has to invest hugely in alternative energy sources to keep the huge economic machines wheels greased. One major drawback that Germany suffers is that any weakness in the Euro Zone has a negative impact on Germany as well. Germany also has an ever increasing aging workforce. This is not an immediate problem but will present a huge challenge in the near future for Germanys economy.

    Germany has many underlying social problems too

    A UN committee has sharply criticized Germany's social and education systems, saying the country fails to provide equal opportunities for immigrants and women. It's also not doing enough to help poor children and the elderly, the UN says. But the German government alleges the report isn't based on facts.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,772778,00.html


    Distant hills often look greener Paul, and it looks as though you have fallen foul of the old adage. Ireland is not a bad place to live, I have been here for 12 years now and I can tell you that even with its problems I would not like to live anywhere else in the world.

    And Paul, seek help. It is you who is lost.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Tuesday August 2, 2011 @04:54PM

    You think this is a good coountry to live in?, are you serious?, see if you are still saying that in a few years, this country is totally screwed, if you think any other way you are totally blind, we basically got robbed from top to bottom and no one got put away for it, its a total joke.
    Please name something, anything that is run with any type of decent standard in this country?, we pay huge tax and get total rubbish.
    France and germany are fantsically run countires, the Nordic countries the same as other central European counties.
    You say you have been here 12 years and you can't see the rot?, i'm totally lost for words ha!!

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Thomas Lippmann Date: Wednesday August 3, 2011 @01:41PM

    Yes there are problems. I agree that not one of the head bankers and decision makers responsible for the problems has been prosecuted for their part in the downfall of Irelands economic structure and banking system.
    Yes this is totally unacceptable. Totally. But Italy has Berlusconi and Germany and France have both had their share of rogue politicians and wayward businessmen. Why do you think that this problem is unique to Ireland? These countries just have more sophisticated ways of hiding disgrace and bad publicity.
    You are correct in your assessment in this respect but you do appear to be painting everyone with the same brush.

    Look at some of the more liberal politicians who have recently been voted into Irish politics. Look at Mister Wallace and Mister Flanagan. Do you see these men as the antipathy to Fianna Fail? One a bust builder and the other a self confessed marijuana user, though looking at their pictures it would be difficult to tell the difference if you only knew the history and not the names.
    Still, this liberalisation of Irish politics must be welcomed as a refreshing breath of air. Let us judge not the men but their deeds.

    Alas, Ireland does have its fair share of problems. And almost every one of them can be attributed, if you dig deep enough, to yesterdays governments political decisions.

    You cant blame the public sector for Irelands problems either. Remember, when Ireland was the tiger of Europe. Unemployment was down to record low levels. Well part of that policy was done in some small part to the government of the day saying; Where can we create jobs? I know, lets open up another twenty positions in the department of finance. Twenty positions here and thirty positions there and soon you have the monster that is the Public service in Ireland.

    Will this be a long term problem? No.

    Even the demographics of the Public Sector workforce show quite clearly that if none of the staff retiring from positions in the Public Sector are replaced within the next five years, then the numbers will normalise and be back to sustainable levels. And that is just looking at the natural retirement adjustment.
    If you look back over the years and see how many people leave the Public Sector for other reasons; you see that historically 1 in every 10 Public Sector workers take unpaid leave of up to five years during their career. 1 in 16 Public Sector workers leave the Public Service to take up a new career or to emigrate. (And here is a frightening statistic) 1 in 23 Public Sector workers die during the course of their career.

    So natural wastage and unpaid leave will further reduce the number of people currently employed in the Public Sector. This might not appear very significant, but in numerical terms the Public Service will have its numbers reduced from its current 330,000 odd thousand this year to somewhere in the region of 309,000 in 2012; 299,000 in 2013; 270,000 in 2014; 250,000 in 2015 and finally down to 226,000 in 2016 if current retirement and non replacement measures are kept in place.

    It is important to point out to those reading this that the government didnt create these jobs willy-nilly. A structured increase was designed under the auspicious title of towards 2016. Indeed Benchmarking and the agreements entered into which brought it to life have many hidden advantages in favour of the successive governments and Public Sector reform in general.

    Yes, this is true. If you look at the new structures designed to grade and differentiate different levels of staff in the public sector, you will notice that the new structures actually have reduced the new levels of entry level pay in many areas. On top of this, the ladders of progression have more rungs. In other words, workers are reaching their peak pay levels at a retarded pace. It takes much longer to reach top of scale.

    I think that this was one of the clever moves made by the government. They created more employment, yet new workers were less well paid that their predecessors. The effects of these changes meant that more staff could be recruited for much the same cost as previously paid for fewer staff.

    Anyway, Paul, my point is this. The same strategy was previously used in Germany, France, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Norway and Poland. I have no factual data on the actual results. However, Google searches have lead me to believe that there are problems with most of the Public Service Institutions throughout Europe. Inefficiencies, slow work rates, too many holidays etc, etc.

    God should be thanked for small mercies. At least you are not in the same position as Italy with a criminal leading the country and a collapsing economic system to boot.

    Ireland is still a long way from this point with good possibilities. There are problems, but the Irish people have faced down bigger problems in the past. I have never known a race of people who can pick themselves up from the canvas so many times to face the opponent again. Eventually the opponent gets tired and gives up.

    Remember Ireland has arguably the most distinguished history with respect to resourcefulness of any country in the world. You have survived famine, invasion and civil war.

    In Germany we call such resolve Lebenswille or will to survive. You Irish have no shortage of Lebenswille. It surprises me then to read you say that this country is totally screwed. It tells me that you have lost your resolve.

    Thankfully, the people I work with daily re- instil my belief in the Irish. I have seen people who were struggling to pay mortgages, and for school books and food. They do not have the life style they had before but they tailored their expectations and budget differently now. They survive. And they smile and joke and mess around as much as ever. That is the resolve and strength you Irish have in spades.

    It is a rare quality. It cannot be bought, even for 500 billion euro. You cannot quench the Irish fire. You cannot drown the lust for life. You cannot buy the Irish peoples resolve.

    Things will get better. Believe in yourselves.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Thursday August 4, 2011 @01:59PM

    "Thankfully, the people I work with daily re- instil my belief in the Irish. I have seen people who were struggling to pay mortgages, and for school books and food. They do not have the life style they had before but they tailored their expectations and budget differently now. They survive. And they smile and joke and mess around as much as ever. That is the resolve and strength you Irish have in spades"

    Must be a dream place for the insiders to live, the average Joe gets crap services at massive costs, get robbed by developers Politicians and bankers and the rest and they still takes it with a smile, no fight, no resolve, and they still have a smile on their face, now wonder the country is screwed.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: waatching and observing Date: Monday August 1, 2011 @09:52PM

    alas, i've watched the story progress since i bought my house in the 90's. i commute, as i couldn't afford to buy close to work, i could have gotten a huge mortgage whaich i may not have been able to pay back, but i didn't.

    as the repayments on my mortgage began to shrink in relation to inflation, after a few years, i was able to change up a few years to a second hand car. a few years later to anothr second hand car, usually, at least 5/6 years old having had more than one or two 10 year old cars.

    along the way i saw my colleagues buying 2nd and 3rd houses, advising me to do the same, but whether it was lack of balls or lack of greed, i'm not really sure. fact is...i didn't feel the need to have another house- it didn't interest me. so many people got caught up in the whole property investment thing. i find it hard to have any sympathy for investors, as it's similar to a PYRAMID scheme.... ie; what goes up must come down/ for every action there is an equal an oppiste reaction- for every extra euro the investor makes on his investment, someone else must find that extra euro to pay him.

    did investors ever see beyond the greed to see the victims of same. as it happens, ireland is the 'victims'.

    the problem i have now is the anger is replacing the greed, although the greed will hang in there. society was not before divided into public sector or private sector. and i think it still isn't. it's just a few people with the power of anonymous texts and blogs, with no meaningful existence in this world trying to make life as crap for everyone else as it is for them. the same sort of mentality that exists in the gutter press is what drives people like them.

    but that's off the point. i think, to start to realistically look at house prices now, we shouldn't be looking at 2006/7 and comparing to those prices. rather we should start with 1997 prices and work forward, which will make it easier for people to accept where we almost are.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Mary Lann Date: Tuesday August 2, 2011 @11:31AM

    Well said, watching and observing.

    Hi Paul. How are you doing today. Have you left the house yet. Get some fresh air it's good for you. And its free. That's if all of us public sector workers don't take it all first.

    M.L

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Tuesday August 2, 2011 @05:01PM

    Ah the fresh air may not be free soon as we may be taxed for that too the way things are going ha!

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday August 4, 2011 @08:46PM

    The problem now is, how will the Government/Banks be able to force the people who fell for all the lies, repay 115billion euros worth of residencial mortgage debt.

    More and more people who bought property for 400K/600K between 2004/2009 are now realising that for the same price of their 30/35 year mortgage that they are paying, let's say 1650 per month, they will end up paying up to 1million.

    Nowadays, with the same 1650 per month you can rent an apartment for 800 per month, and still save 850 per month. In just 15years an individual alone will be able to save 153K, enough to buy a 2bed apartment in cash these days and i believe that will be the case in 15years times.

    Total cost 297K plus their current loss of let's say 100K= 397K

    So why would they keep paying into a black hole which they can't be entirely to blame for, when they can still start all over again and save a fortune?

    There are people tinking about handing over the keys in order to start their lives again, Srategic Default is now the banks worse fear, so i believe that if nothing is done, the worst is yet to come.

    Only way out is: Let these people who bought between 2004/2009, repay exactly what they owe, Interest Free.
    Still much more than anybody woud pay now, so it is fair, the bank will get their money back, just not their profit (interest), and that way the economy can quickstart again.

    Debt forgiveness NO - Interest forgiveness YES

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Patso the fatso Date: Friday August 5, 2011 @11:00AM

    I have to say I like this idea. It certainly does look bleak if you are watching the headlines of financial collapse accross Europe over the past few days. I really hope thimgs improve very soon.
    Yestertday alone the percentage wiped off the American and European stock markets accounted for the total annual gains this year so far. In other papers claims were made that 14 months gains were wiped off the market. If this continues as a trend even for a short term, we will not be talking about house prices reaching 1998 levels, we will be looking at losses which will bring prices back to 1990 levels.

    People trying to sell a house for 400K today may be lucky to get 70K for it in two years time.

    There will be a world wide recession with China emerging as the new market leader. If there is another world wide recession so soon after the last one, we will deffinatly see huge losses in the value of European currency, Property prices and huge unemployment as well.

    Sorry to be the Doom-sayer but I have just read the market reports for European and American markets this morning. Not good. Lets hope the U.S employment figures do not indicate that America has relapsed into a recession (depression) again. That would be the first indicator of worldwide recession. And events in Japan over the past year do not help the situation.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Friday August 5, 2011 @04:21PM

    For house prices to go back to 1990 levels average incomes would have to also go back to 1990 levels, that is not going to happen. Back in 1990 there was up to 20 percent on the dole as well, if average incomes do by some magical way go back to 1990 levels and also unemployment also hits 20 percent then it may happpen, but we as a country would be practically second/third world at that stage.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Patso the fatso Date: Monday August 8, 2011 @04:51PM

    You can't see that happening Huh?

    Take a look at the markets today. It's actually worse than feared. Nearly 3.5% wiped off stock market average values in one day. Thats almost 1 trillion euro worth in cash value.

    I guess you are just waiting to buy back into the market at the right time there buddy. Smart move Mr. Paul.

    I wish I was as clever as you. Except, I have no money to invest at the moment because I had to give myself a 30% pay cut to keep my practice open.

    House prices will fall to 1990 levels because that is what market pressure is forcing. The European Central bank buying up debt is not a good thing.
    It is placing the market under pressure. That and the news from S&P on Americas credit rating adjustment may now accelerate downward pressure.

    Unfortunately unemployment will go back to 18-21%% in Ireland too because we rely on America for so much of our business (20-24% of Irelands financial foreign investment comes through American sponsored industrial agencies).


    Just watch what affect the new bad news has on world wide markets this evening. I see a drop of 4% on average acrocc european markets.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Tuesday August 9, 2011 @08:49AM

    Most American companies who operate here service the EU, I think what happens in Europe is more important to us then what happens in the US. I also think we will lurch from one crisis to another till Euro bonds are brought in, this will bring stability but will also bring closer economic ties which will be in effect a Federal Europe. Otherwise we will exit the Euro and default, then all bets are off I suppose. I have a feeling this will be put to us at some stage as a do or die scenario.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Addie Date: Tuesday August 9, 2011 @11:10AM

    Paul, you could'nt be more general if you tried. That's why people dont put any faith in what you say. All you do is listen to the headlines and spew whatever is on the Joe Duffy show onto this website.

    First the public service, then the nurses and now you are repeating stuff bout the finance markets.

    If you trow enough mud at a wall some of it will hit it. Is that your pilosopy.

    This is a property website, talk about property or dont bother posting here.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Paul Date: Tuesday August 9, 2011 @10:39PM

    If you bother to read between the lines all these have a large bearing on how the economy will perform and thus how many house will be sold, does it not make sense?, I mean Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev just has touched on some very valid points about the state of the country/world economy which have a massive bearing on what will happen in the housing market, this is basic common sense.
    We are borrowing 20 billion a year and will end up owing 200 billion plus, but yes you a correct, this will have no bearing on the housing market whatsoever.....

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  • Really interesting !

    Posted By: XRumer Date: Friday August 5, 2011 @06:49PM

    . - . XRumer 7 Elite ( 7 ) http://x-rumer.ru/ heard a good program to advertise your blog portals.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Looking for a house Date: Monday August 15, 2011 @09:38AM

    So i decided to tak e a wander on this website, trying to get an unbiased opinion on whats is effectively the property crash and the further down the page i go the more i notice the unbelievable difference in opinions in why we buy houses.
    I know that i am currently ready to buy a house, to put my name on a contract and happily move in to my first home as i am now going to call it instead of a house. The prices/indexes/percentages are obviously falling and no doubt will continue to fall considering the current state of financial affairs this oh so lovely country is in. Buyers need to understand that for the first time in years, maybe decades it is now our market and if we want a house the odds are stacked in our favour, it is up to us to argue and be strong in it when we are making an offer on a house, 50-60% of an asking price on a house no matter what value is a hell of alot better than 0%. This is probably the most fragile time for buyers/sellers in the wake of all the european changes that are happening at the moment, Sellers you cannot cannot be serious about the prices that are now being asked, it is not the fault of current buyers that you bought a house/home at an extortionate price and i dont think it is fair that we pay the price for that. Buyers we need to approach this market with the intention that we have/will have to money/mortgage to buy a home and that we are prepared to do it but at a reasonable cost. We dont expect to get a house, no matter what state it is in for absolutely nothing, but the price must reflect the changes that have happened in this country our the past few years. good luck to anyone buying!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: bob Date: Thursday August 18, 2011 @11:10AM

    Totally agree with you buying a house. However sellers will still try and hold on to their dream. I have put an offer in on 2 houses. The first was 50k below asking price, the bungalow was in a terrible state with no inside loo and no heating, damp wall & the site was a wreck with septic tank was on someone else's property which had to be closed down. the asking was 200k, the EA did not get back to me, and weeks later I found that the property was taken off the market.

    The second property I put an offer in again was 50k under asking. but they were asking 230k for a 3 bed semi in a commuter belt where average asking price in estates around was circa 200k so I thought my offer of 180k was not too cheeky, but yet again the EA has not been back in touch with me.

    There are buyers out there but sellers need to cop on and realise that the market is going nowhere for a very very long time and price wont move much when they do.

    To be honest when I view houses there seems no effort made to present the house and even the description is completely different from what you see. Its like sellers and EA alike still think that property sells itself.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Lorenzo Cappicellie Date: Friday August 19, 2011 @11:20AM

    I think Irish house prices too much. I looking buy house for long time. Almost one year. House prices come down very slow in Ireland.

    In Ireland you get only small amount for money you spend. In Italy you get big house, big gardin and car house for samely money.

    I working for Italian Software company in Dublin and money here is biggest than in Italy. But if I was get same money in Italy I could buy a Villa with a swimming pool for samely money.

    I not option but to rent. Bank in Ireland not give enough money to buy house. I saving money and when house goes lower in prices, I buy then.

    My colleague sayed me that house prices will drop much morer. Maybe i try offer much lesser for next house, like bob sayed he did.

    Ciao

    Lorenzo

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Patso the fatso Date: Tuesday August 30, 2011 @10:08AM

    Read it and weep. I told you so and dont say I didnt warn you. I predicted that this year will prove to be a more severe year in terms of property price deflation than last and next year will be even worse.
    My advice if you are clinging on in the hope of some miraculous improvement in the property market; is to educate yourself and take immediate steps to arrest the devaluation of your asset base by realising whatever profit or loss you have made to date and waiting till the market reaches rock bottom; circa 2017.
    Property prices have still a hell of a ways to fall, roughly a further 30% from todays prices; i.e. a fall of 59% from peak 2007 prices. And you must realise that these figures are calculated to show results which error on the safe side of the equation. Some economists now suggest that property prices in Ireland will fall by as much as 45% from our current standing or 65% aggregate decline in property value from peak 2007 prices.
    Either way, if you sell now and realise a 10% loss it is far greater than being forced to sell in three years time having lost 43% of the value of your property. Likewise if you realise some positive equity from the sale of your property now then in three years time your money will buy you much more than it will now in property terms.
    Simple rudimentary economics really. Every indicator at the moment shows that the annual average decrease in property values is accelerating. Why make a bigger loss than you have to.
    Do you want to end up financing negative equity in the future, effectively paying a double penalty on money owed? Capital value plus depreciation. No, I didnt think so. Consider talking to your bank about your possibilities or seek other independent advice. But seriously consider your options. Dont believe all the claptrap about house prices stabilising and recovering their value within a few short years. This simply cannot happen. Its basic economics. What will happen is that house prices will continue to decline at an accelerated pace, then gradually at a slower pace, then at a very slow pace. Eventually property prices will come to equilibrium, not rising and not falling by any meaningful degree for a few years. This whole process could take up to 15 years altogether, then house prices will follow a greater European trend in respect to prices. Average property prices across Europe for the past four years has been -17%, -12.4%, -16%,-14% respectively. Given the financial turmoil over the past year across Europe, you would imagine the property indices will register an average drop in the high double digits, perhaps as much as -19/20%.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/0830/1224303189624.html?via=rel

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Denis Gray Date: Monday September 19, 2011 @03:26PM

    Hi,

    Where can I find the current asking price for a 4 bed semi detached house in Dun Na Corribe - Headford road Galway.

    Best Regards,
    Denis Gray

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Robert Doe Date: Tuesday September 20, 2011 @04:02PM

    You should find an information about house prices in your local estate agents or letting office. Try contacting the local auctioneer.........

    That is if you are not the local auctioneer...

    Robbie

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  • dzkkoeo jbidawh

    Posted By: rgjasrplpt Date: Wednesday September 21, 2011 @04:36PM

    vqsfoebgu, http://www.ecyvlbuvaa.com gspveabdce

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q2 2011

    Posted By: Anna Date: Monday August 19, 2013 @09:18AM

    Reading again with anger. Two years on and still no impetus to get ghost apartments ready for habitation of some kind. If it were London , ghost dwellings would have been squatted by now and agreements drawn up , in a cilvilised fashion with local councils to pay for utilities like electricity running water and heat. Not so in Ireland with the uber conservative stranglehold on the nations most coveted : ones own home.
    I am still trying to find a two bed. Homeless since April. Evicted. Shoe - horned into a RAS Inspection of a lovely old perfectly inhabitable apartment home of almost 4 years. Recovering from chemo. Ordered to find another property or leave University and claim rent allowance. Cornered into arrears having exhausted Student Scholarship on rent when rent supplement ceased - flat declared uninhabitable as windows not right size. No lee way to consider time frame to cost and change . On a Social Housing Waiting list 11 years. Told to go and find another property that will qualify for the vague and elusive RAS, instead.
    No information forthcoming on what - c r i t e r i a - to keep in mind when selecting a rental to put for inspection. At the mercy of the Gods on that score. "Just find one and we'll inspect it and tell you ...after, if it will qualify". Just find one. Move in. Pay money. Tell Landlord to wait , do paperwork and then risk being told again - its not compliant .

    And everywhere I walk for a view , empty whole blocks of apartments. Over priced house shares with little to no room for desks in bedrooms , Poky sitting/dining rooms to accommodate 5/6 students at a share. No storage space to speak of for bicycles , for computers, for anything more than , it seems , big wide screen TVs as if the only occupation citizens have at the end of the day is to park on a sofa and watch TV.

    Where are the affordable rental options for lone parents - who are widowed , separated, divorced as well as unmarried - for students with special needs, for older single people who cant share easily with a young professional market, for working poor families..? If we have had such a huge exodus in recent years of young workers - where are all the apartments to let now ...?

    Why wont Landlords accept rent supplement from tenants with references - good work references and long let references . Why is the government still trying to undercut the market for low income renters . if a lone parent / student wants to try to share a house with other singles , it is made impossible financially .
    Saying that as someone who worked hard for a great many years , volunteered in community , studied and paid own way.
    Lost five deposits to crooked landlords / agents in as many years previously.
    Evicted for unjust cause more than once .
    Happy to repaint ( and pay for ) as houseproud with a good visual aesthetic and design sense.
    Happy to mend and fix - like to potter.
    Happy to add character and beauty to filthy , drab and dingy , uncleaned for view rental lets - if it means i can have a roof over my head come September and study - and keep my family together.
    As it stands , two weeks to go - child facing re location to another county to be housed and parent facing bedsit land .
    We will survive it, but each time I pass an apartment block sitting unfinished and work out what it would cost to finish it with all hands on deck - NAMA wiling instead of wily - it makes me very sad .
    Why are there no negotiations to develop new housing co ops to see through the completion of some of these blocks to habitable status and house low income hard working responsible citizens.?
    What is NAMA doing with all of these unfinished ceased assets..?
    If developments were given the go ahead on the understanding that allocations would be made within same to house low income households - why is NAMA not making more effort to bring representatives to the table to ring fence some of these for social affordable housing.
    I am no 11 on a Housing waiting List for the city I am in. or higher. Having been unable to accept a previous offer due to being too ill to move at the time -

    I have now lost my credit rating as a tenant having waited out an 18 month qualifying period to apply for RAS from my last let. Only to be told - it does not meet current standards. It had done so before. I was told it had and to stick with this apartment. Many visits to ask for info on criteria. Left in the dark.
    This silent diva approach to dealing with people with genuine needs for long term secure home is appalling.
    It is morally wrong. It is un necessary , un professional and careless . Lacking in respect and consideration. Economic catastrophe no excuse.

    Bring in some measure to identify and assist low income families - the current is catastrophic.

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