Big Regional Variations in More Realistic Property Market

Damien Kiberd, Economic Commentator

1st Feb 2007

Damien Kiberd is our guest blogger, analysing the Quarter 4 2006 figures.

The fourth quarter of 2006 brought a fundamental- and downward- shift in house price expectations among both developers and sellers of individual homes, according to the latest Daft.ie Asking Price Index (API).

The Q4 results suggest that by December 2006 sellers' asking prices were just 3.8% higher than in December 2005, while for the quarter as a whole (Q4 2006 V Q4 2005) asking prices were up by just 4.7%.

The API is the property market's leading edge indicator of changes in sellers' expectations. Some 65,000 properties are detailed on the Daft.ie website at any one time, which allows Daft researchers to base their analyses on statistically significant and reliable sample sizes.

A pronounced flattening out of house prices in Dublin during the third and fourth quarters depressed the national trend in the API , but prices continued to grow outside the capital.

The causes of these trends are clear. In the second-hand market a series of spectacular prices achieved in Q1 2006 flushed out an unprecedented number of would-be sellers, leading to oversupply in Q3 and Q4. Houses not normally put to auction were also offered for sale and by the year end four-fifths of homes on offer is the salesrooms were being withdrawn unsold, leading to adverse psychological effects on the wider market for second-hand homes. The problem of oversupply was compounded by injudicious comments from a senior government minister which held out the prospect of stamp duty cuts in the December budget, thereby causing potential purchasers to delay completing transactions throughout Q3 and into Q4. No duty cuts were actually approved by Minister Cowen.

In the market for new houses and apartments, developers in the Greater Dublin area opted to "hold" asking prices in the second half in order to maintain market share and to ensure their own, and their banks', cash flow. After two years which saw the Daft.ie API rise by close to 25% in Greater Dublin, profits for builders remain strong even with a levelling off in the market.

Developers' expectations were trimmed by the realisation that many potential buyers had reached the limits of affordability: Half of all mortgages now extend to terms of 25, 30 or 35 years and beyond. They were also dampened by six successive increases in the European Central Bank base rate which rose to 3.5%, triggering a welter of negative media predictions concerning house prices.

Outside Dublin prices continued to grow in the second half, however, with evidence of supply shortages emerging particularly in Limerick and to a lesser extent in Cork. Daft.ie's data suggests that typical homes in the regional cities and in extended belt of Dublin's "commuter towns" are on average €100,000 dearer than they were in early 2005.

But with the capital gearing up for significant high rise development the appetite for some suburban locations may be on the wane. The Daft.ie API for the second half of 2006 showed a softening of the market in suburbs such as Santry (-4.5%), Clonee (-9.4%) and Maynooth (-8.8%). Very significant competition among developers, particularly in North and West County Dublin where new suburbs are under construction tilted the market balance in favour of buyers, with developers forced to offer "extras" such as top class kitchens, designer planned gardens and "neighbourhood/lifestyle concepts" in order to achieve sales.

Public transport infrastructure developments are also causing geographic variations in "sellability". In early 2006 apartments in Luas served Sandyford, for example, were snapped up. Reflecting this reality both Dublin City Council and Fingal are to impose special development levies along the route of the planned Metro North.

The Daft.ie API analysis suggest that for first time buyers in Greater Dublin the most attractive prices for starter homes can be found in Newcastle, Balbriggan, Mulhuddart and Cherry Orchard where prices are just above the government's stamp duty threshold of €317,500.

Looking into 2007, consensus estimates among economic forecasters and market participants predict the now cliched "soft landing" with prices expected to rise by about 5% across the country. Positive factors supporting prices include Mr. Cowen's decision to address the affordability issue for first time buyers by doubling mortgage interest relief (for them) in Budget 2007. Other positives include the flood of SSIA cash rebates which will peak in April 2007, the ongoing demograpic expansion with the labour force growing by 4% annually and overall population up by 2.5%, the raft of new mortgage deals coming on stream from the banks and the general strength of the global economy where all of the big economies are predicting solid growth.

Daft.ie's latest index suggests that a new realism has entered what was a frothy marketplace. The primary casualty of the shake-out may be the auction room with the vast majority of young buyers now testing the market on-line before approaching sellers, developers and estate agents to process a deal. But the underlying market realities do not point to a collapse in prices either in 2007 or beyond.


HIGHLIGHTS:

Asking Price Index
Daft Asking Price Index (API)

Dublin v Rest of Country
Dublin v Rest of Country


SNAPSHOT:

Snapshot
Average House Prices across Ireland in Q4 2006

Discuss This Article

  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Corkman Date: Thursday February 1, 2007 @03:22PM

    Wow that's some dip there over the Summer, I never read about that in the media before.. I wonder why? vested interests perhaps...

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: CCE Date: Monday February 5, 2007 @01:16PM

    Agree with New Departure re the Housing Market is in free fall. If you look at the myhome i.e website there was 5 houses in castleknock for sale asking price €2.3m each.
    Now quoting €2m a drop of 13%.
    Even further evidence is that the exclusive development in Farmleigh castleknock was sold out 3-6 months ago now the apartments are for sale on myhome.ie. Is the market collapsing around us the moment ?????????

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Niall Limerick Date: Monday February 5, 2007 @03:10PM

    Would I be correct in saying that the people who are predicting a crash are not home owners. It sounds like you want a house price crash to happen so you can become a home owner. Surely this is a very bad and negative attitude.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Wednesday February 7, 2007 @02:20PM

    You would be correct Niall,most of the people commentating are non homeowners who have been "predicting" a housing market collapse every year since the boom began in the mid 90's,and they have been wrong for 11 years. Now they react with glee to the possibility that they may finally be correct. They will even try and claim that a levelling of the market is a collapse(incorrectly), but they will manipulate the facts to suit their argument.Ladies and Gentlemen,a 5/6% increase a year is not a housing market collapse, so could ye please become self appointed experts on something that ye actually know about,because your record on the housing market is,nt great,as ye have been wrong for 11 successive years, and the collapse which ye await with baited breath is not going to happen

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Rich Date: Wednesday February 7, 2007 @09:46PM

    Whatever; just bought a house? well I would be worried! A plateau will pre-empt the fall. Houses are over priced in this country, you don't need to be green eyed or a vested interest to see that. If 'ye' bought in the gold rush then 'ye' took a gamble. Unfortunately the rush of sheep to purchase 'fools gold' will not be happy ever after ending. 3-5 % growth?, I heard figures of 30% etc whats gona happen next month? next year? the game is up and I look forward to picking up some cheap pieces!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Thursday February 8, 2007 @10:39AM

    Thank you for your indepth analysis "Rich",so you have "heard figures of 30%",well done,you must be congratulated for your excellent hearing and analysis of this eavesdropping exercise."a plateau will pre-empt the fall", another nugget of brilliant analysis,no doubt picked up from reading a headline on the evening herald,or perhaps it was also overheard in the said 30% incident. Well Rich,I,m not a bit worried,bought in 2000,seen appreciation of 78%,so its gonna take a crash of almighty proportions to hurt me or the vast majority of others.Even if prices were to fall back 20% it would only take them back to their 2005 level,and would only hurt a small proportion of the market. With clowns like you waiting to jump on the bandwagon which you missed in the first place the market will be back on an even keel in no time!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Rich Date: Friday February 9, 2007 @06:52PM

    Well done II, condesention becomes you. Perhaps another lecture on the 'euribor' will make you feel even more superior! Not so long ago the UK bond markets had negated to observe a quarter point increase in UK rates,no doubt a man of your intelligence had preempted this rise, furthermore 'marketwatch' not the evening herald has commented daily on interest rates in the US and they do not agree with your narrow synopsis. Who is right? you? or reputable analyses without vested interests? I'll go for the informed view. US rates are poised to move upwards as are UK rates. As for Europe I'll bet on 4% this year. MP3 supply continues to march on with little sign of stopping, unlike our anglo-saxon cousins money supply is a marker for inflation in the Euro area and inflation is set to rise. Even the elevated house prices from 2000 look at risk. When I decide to join the party the likes of you will have left before 'pumkinitiss' sets in!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Saturday February 10, 2007 @05:47PM

    Rich,if you are naive enough to believe that house prices will return to their 2000 level(ie a circa 80% fall),then you will never be joining this "party" my friend.78.6% equity now exists in the residential property sector,so it will take a collapse of 80% to turn the market to negative equity and i,m sure not even devoted readers of "marketwatch" are gullible enough to believe that is even a possibility.You also conviently overlook the fact that during the first 5 years of the boom interest rates were over 5% in this country. Best of luck in "picking up some cheap pieces" as you so smugly put it,but it will have to be in Bulgaria or Romania, because the collapse which you crave and would welcome with a ridiculous I told you so expression,is not going to happen.Please keep us all posted on the goings on in "Marketwatch"

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: JD Date: Monday March 12, 2007 @08:08PM

    A house which appreciated 78% since 2000 does not need a 80% drop in value on to-days price to return to the 2000 value.......
    Example: 1000 euro house increases in value by 78%
    1000x1.78=1,780

    1,780 house reduces by 80%
    1,780x0.2=356

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Tuesday March 13, 2007 @11:41AM

    Correct,it would need a drop of 55.5% to return to 2000 level,equally unlikely!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Katie Date: Tuesday February 27, 2007 @04:17AM

    I just wonder if people realize how stats. are analized. Do you know that if 10 houses sold in Dublin for 500,000 and the 11th house in Ailsbury Road sold for 10,000,000.00 then the average house price is 10 x 500,000 = 5,000,000 +10,000,000 = 15,000,000 average house price 1,450,000. Now do you understand how silly stats are? Stats just tell you what the developers and bankers want you to know, they want to sell more houses, lend you more money, government gets a cut and they convince you your house prices are going up. Every now and again they throw in an Ailsbury Road house for millions to skew the stats and pretend whoops! house prices are up 25%. You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time but you can't fool all of the people all of the time. Some of us learned something in math class.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Tuesday February 27, 2007 @12:53PM

    The same also applies when houses at the upper end of the market drop in price,for exmple a house guiding 10 million at auction fails to sell and is subsequently placed back on the market at 8 million,a 20% drop.Immediately you see the headlines and comments about a 20% drop in house prices when the reality is that the average house below the €600,000 mark is completely unaffected and has not dropped in value. The maniplulation of statistics is prevalent by both vested interests and also by those predicting a crash.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: the Orb Date: Tuesday February 27, 2007 @02:27PM

    I think you could do with revisiting that maths class Katie because €15,000,000 divided by 11 houses would give you an average house price of €1,363,636 and not €1,450,000!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Katie Date: Wednesday February 28, 2007 @06:23AM

    OK your right to be exact. But should I now ask 1,350,000 for my 500,000 euro house that I bought three years ago? What should I ask for the Ailsbury Road house? Who has money to invest in these houses, where will I find a good buyer?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Thursday March 1, 2007 @12:41AM

    What are you on about?what should you ask for your house?Where are you going to live,or are you fortunate enough to own 2 properties?Either way it is a ridiculous question,should you ask the the average price for your house that which may be worth more or less than the average?Most homeowners would and should know to within €10,000 what their house is worth.This bullshit of the Ailesbury Road example is nonense.If you paid a non Ailesbury Road Price for your house why would you expect to get an Ailesbury Road price for it now,thats just greed. Who will buy your house? Put it on the market and you will find out.How much will they pay for it?The market value,which if you paid €500,000 2 years ago is circa €610,000.Happy calculating!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Katie Date: Thursday March 1, 2007 @08:21PM

    Settle down Paul. It seems you were over schooled on theory and analysis and not enough reality and practicality. The truth is our houses are worth what someone will pay for them not a penny more and not a penny less. I don't see too many buyers out there doing the math you are doing and adding 8% per year onto our house prices and handing over the cheque. Houses are sitting there with FOR SALE signs for a long time 35,500 on daft alone. Where are the buyers? how long do you calculate we will have to wait?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Friday March 2, 2007 @04:09PM

    I allready said that the value of your property is what a buyer is willing to pay,thats just common sense.Regarding the said value,I think that is is quite a conservative estimate to assume that if you paid €500,000 2 years ago that it is worth just over €600,000 now.Who will buy your house?Impossible to know untill you put it on the market,but as it is above average regarding price one would have to assume that it would have to be a proffessional couple looking to settle down!How long to sell?4/6 weeks,guaranteed

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Wednesday March 7, 2007 @10:52PM

    To properly talk of the cost of an average home sold one must eliminate both extremes of the market. I have found that eliminating both the top and bottom 20% and averaging the remaining 60% will give a more accurate picture of the market.
    PJB

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: John Date: Thursday December 17, 2009 @11:16PM

    Paul,
    I just hope other people didn't read your post and think you had a clue what you were talking about.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: barcode Date: Tuesday February 20, 2007 @12:04PM

    Was anyone at the Lauch of Adamstown 2nd phase last week.
    There was about 5-10 perspective buyers.
    Heard from one of there foremen they are going to drop asking prices 3-5k to generate interest.
    More evidence that a crash is in the making

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: the mystery man Date: Thursday February 22, 2007 @04:22PM

    Yes I was at it,114 units sold last weekend,not that slow although not as busy as previous launchs!

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  • Unknown

    Posted By: Mike Stranger Date: Thursday March 22, 2007 @03:17PM

    Thanks 123 adware

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: TheOrb Date: Thursday February 1, 2007 @04:13PM

    Ladies and Gentlmen , the party is offically over , its going to be a bumpy ride on the way down . Wonder what kind of spin the vested interests will come up with now ?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Des Date: Thursday February 1, 2007 @08:26PM

    I just don't trust these reports of 5% growth in 2007. Seems impossible since prices are currently falling and "investors" would be mad to take on more rental property in a country soon to be saturated with apartments.
    I would imagine 1% to 2% growth tops but xpect "investors" to begin to pull out and realize their gains, with .5% ECB rate rise certain I see no chance of 5% growth given these conditions and private sector wages to be held back in growth due to poor multinational results this year.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Cee Date: Thursday February 1, 2007 @11:42PM

    If asking prices went up just 3.8% in the year to December 2006, how did ESRI/TSB Permanent come up with a figure of 11.8% for the same period? Their report was published on 29th January 2007 - just two days before the DAFT Report. I would accept that TSB Permanent could be classified as a "vested interest" but I don't think that the ESRI would engage in massaging the true figures. Perhaps the 11.8% increase is driven by the value of more expensive new properties whereas the 3.8% relates to the actual increase in the value of the existing housing stock.

    Following the Q3 2006 DAFT Report, I opined (along with several others) that the boom was over and that prices would actually fall in 2007. If asking prices have increased by just 3.8% in the year, I would contend that the fall is now in progress as sellers will be slow to lower their asking prices. However, it is clear that very few properties are being sold at their asking prices - hence the increase in the number of properties for sale to 37,000 at end November 2006 according to DAFT press release (22,000 secondhand and 15,000 new). It follows that actual sale prices will very often be less than the asking prices. As Damien Kiberb points out, we now have oversupply and it is a buyer's market.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Seamus Date: Friday February 2, 2007 @08:02PM

    The Permanent TSB base their report on the number of mortgages they sell, so their figures are based on only about 20-30% of the properties sold in the year. I don't know what percentage of the market daft has, but I would imagine it is probably about 60-80% given that amount of properties for sale they have advertised. This means that their figures are more representive of the entire Irish property market. I will be interested to see what happens in the 1st 3 months, as another poster mentioned, I can't see it being anywhere near 5%.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: The New Departure Date: Friday February 2, 2007 @05:45PM

    Believe it or not the property market is in free fall.
    I live in an apartment complex in Castleknonk. Since July 1st 2006 35 apartments have went up for sale. 3 have been sold.i.e 8%.
    However the auctioneers,developers,banks & other interested partys are doing an unbelievable job to convence people otherwise.
    eg Last weeks irish Independant reported that a developer had got planning permission to build 250 exclusive apartments in castleknock but in the next sentence it stated that there was a huge shortage of aparments in castleknock with only 1-5 apartments currently for sale.
    People should use there own logic thinking when approaching buying a property in the current enviroment. Here are some thoughts.
    1.A 0.25% increase increase in interest rates increase a mortgage repayment by ~ 5%
    2.There are currently 55,000 on sale on myhome.ie plus another ~ 85,000 houses to be completed in 2007 = 150,000 houses = the requirement for the uk for a year.UK population 62 million Ireland 4 million
    3.The constuction sector in Ireland employs 14-16% of the work force.These are top paid jobs. Any reduction in this figure to below 10% would result in 90,000 people out of work.Majority of these people are non nationals.Rental market would collapse
    4.1 in 3 houses are own by investors. What do you do when your investment reduces in value you sell. Appox 300,000 houses in Dublin are owned by investors.
    5.Currently 1 in every 4 euros spent in ireland is derieved from Intel, Dell & HP.
    6.Did anyone hear the words repossions or negative equity yet. More good work by our vested interests keeping that out of the lime light.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: mystery man Date: Saturday February 3, 2007 @01:27PM

    where is castleknonk,is it in dublin?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: the mystery man Date: Sunday February 4, 2007 @09:13PM

    i suspect that you really live in blanchardstown and not castleknonk!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: The Mystery man Date: Tuesday February 6, 2007 @02:41PM

    A .25% increase interest rates means a 2.9% increase in repayments,if the rates go up from 3.5-3.75%, not 5%, please don,t be trying to over dramitise the situation, as so many others are so quick to

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Friday February 2, 2007 @06:22PM

    Interesting report,if the API Table is looked at Jan 06-Dec 06 then the increase in house prices on the year is actually 11.21%,very close to the 11.8% which the permanent tsb came up with.It just goes to show that you can manipulate the figures to suit either viewpoint about the market.
    Regarding the comment about interest rates,a 0.5% increase is not going to happen.There will be 1 more increase of 0.25% in March and that will be the end of the cycle.Rates in the US are about to start coming down and rates in the UK have peaked and will start to come down in august/september.Rates in the Eurozone will follow suit early next year.
    House prices in the capital will rise 5/6% this year,as the fundamentals are still in place,strong migration,full employment,and a housing deficit in Dublin.Appreciation of 5/6% is a good return,ahead of inflation and more than you will get in the bank!
    The continued release of SSIA,S,changes in tax from the budget and the newly announced National development plan will all release more money into the economy and will have both a direct and indirect positive effect on the property market.
    The boom continues and the doomsayers have been wrong again for the umpteenth time

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Jason7 Date: Monday February 5, 2007 @08:36AM

    Paul murphy are you Austin hughes in disguise ? Where are you getting one more 0.25 % rate increase , the market has already priced in a second increase in June and also you are way off the mark with US rates coming down , the noises coming from the FED suggest at best they are going to keep rates at their currently level with a possibilty of rate increases later in the new year increasing all the time . Face facts the autumn selling season is going to be a complete wash out

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Monday February 5, 2007 @05:45PM

    Its quite simple Jason,the ecb will not increase rates untill its march 22nd meeting and that will be the end of the cycle.This logic is based on the short term interest futures market where only one more rate rise to 3.75% is presently factored into the 3 month euribor rate which closely tracks the ecb base rate. According to this and the financial markets there is only a 1 in 5 chance of rates reaching 4% later in the year,contrary to the belief amoung the majority of economic commentators,the media and wannabe "guru's" like the jason7's of this world

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: TheOrb Date: Monday February 5, 2007 @08:42AM

    "House prices in the capital will rise 5/6% this year,"

    This is an extremely bad return , with infation running at about 5 % in Ireland at the moment . Most astute investors seek a return of 3% over inflation , with fundmentals like this it is no wonder the market is crashing.


    Also if there was 0% growth in house prices for the last 6 months why would buyers rush back into a market that they know is under serious pressure ? Would most rational people not stay out for next 6/12 months with a wait and see attitude .

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Sunday February 4, 2007 @07:36PM

    I think the previous comments regarding interest rates are incorrect. The consensus regarding US rates have completely turned around in the last few months, most commentators now see US rates staying on hold for the rest of 2007 with any movement likely to be to the upside (With unemployment at 4.6% this is effectively full employment for the US, so inflation is still on the Fed’s radar). Regarding the UK, there will be at least one more rate increase in 2007, and again any risk is to the upside (the future’s market is actually pricing in two more increases in 2007). In terms of the Eurozone there is no doubt in my mind that rates will be increased to a minimum of 4% in 2007. With economic indicators in the Eurozone’s main economies pointing to solid growth I wouldn’t be surprised if rates went beyond this level in 2008.

    While interest rate increases will affect the demand for housing as affordability is stretched, the greatest threat to the housing market doesn’t some from interest rate movements but rather oversupply. In the last two years Ireland has built circa 175,000 new houses. Given an average household size of 2.5 this is enough to house 450,000 people. Yet the population over the last two years has only increased around 100,000, therefore if we keep building at these levels a downward correction is inevitable.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: The Mystery man Date: Tuesday February 6, 2007 @09:41AM

    The population increrased by 110,000 last year alone, going by applications for pps numbers,90,000 of applications from polish people.Appropriate density figure at the monment is 2.7 and not 2.5

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Jason7 Date: Tuesday February 6, 2007 @12:12PM

    And 90,000 polish people are going to pay 550K for a one bed apartments in Mount St Annes to keep the boom going ??

    The Immigration argument for keeping the boom going is complete crap , the majority of these immigrantants stay for less than 3 years , are they going to be getting 35 year mortgages ??

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Thursday February 8, 2007 @01:17PM

    €495,000 for 1 beds in mt st annes,another person overdramitising here i see. While 90,000 polish peoples won,t be buying apts or houses,they are pushing the rental market forward jason,6.3% last year to be precise.or did you forget that immigrants have to live somewhere?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Sunday February 4, 2007 @08:05PM

    If you are an investor get out now. Even if the “soft landing” takes place, given the fact that in most cases the rental income will not cover the mortgage payment, 5% appreciation is not high enough to justify the risk you will be taking. A previous message indicated that this was better than the return you can get from the bank, perhaps they overlooked the fact putting your money in the bank is totally risk-free, you will always get your money back, you can never say that about the housing market (especially at the moment)

    Keep in mind that economic history shows us that almost every house market boom throughout the world has ended in a crash, the so called soft landing is hardly ever achieved. You may want to ask yourself who is promoting the idea of a soft landing and why.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Holger Date: Tuesday February 6, 2007 @02:59PM

    to be honest I don`t get the property market here at all - in fact there is still strong demand for living room - What I am wondering about as a German is that many of the mortgages are based on short term conditions - fixed interest rate seems to be regarded as long - back in Germany 10 years fixed interest rate was standard - sometimes even for 15 years - when the interest rates rise further for any reason I can imagine this will smash many mortgages and there will be some redistribution in the property market - I wouldn`t buy at the current niveau because it seems to risky and I think it is more likely that although there is still strong demand for property the prices are more likely to fall - s.o. said s.th. about the Polish people in Ireland - even when they are planning to stay it makes more sense for them to buy s.th. back in Poland because in Krakow or s.th. they get an apartment for 15000 Euro

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: midlands person Date: Tuesday February 6, 2007 @09:10PM

    in reading comments through out this section it's likely that a correction in the market is happening. i'm based in a large midlands town i have noticed house prices coming down over the last six months. houses selling in new developments are dearer than those selling second hand in the same development (10-12% difference) these are investors getting out of the market for a quick sale and taking some profit with them. at the moment there are a lot of ex-rentals for sale in the town. not a good sign. last summer i could have sold my own house mid 500k now i would be struggling mid to high 400k vast difference but still i consider way over priced. for me i'm lucky that i have been living here many years and that i probably wont move or sell, but for those not so blessed buying into this market now must be a nightmare with such high repayments over such a long period. i hope these people now will hold back, NOT allow greedy investors cash in their chips and get rich of you. please allow the correction dont mind those idiots of investors out there trying to get your money. "if you are an investor you take down's with the up's"

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Jason7 Date: Thursday February 8, 2007 @03:05PM

    Another guaranteed 0.25% rise in mortage interest rates in March(ECB today announced) , the final death knell for the Irish Property market?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Thursday February 8, 2007 @04:33PM

    Thanks Jason,keep us posted and let us know when that famous bell finally tolls!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: TheOrb Date: Thursday February 8, 2007 @05:29PM

    €2,000 a month to rent 2 bed apartment in Mount st annes , Paul Murphy do you think that 90,000 Poles working in Spar are going to be pushing demand in here . ?? The places were these min wage workers rent( finglass , phibsborough) are already down 10% , who is going to be pusing this rental demand in the leafy south side that you talk about ??

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: the mystery man Date: Friday February 9, 2007 @10:02AM

    Good man jason,thanks for letting us know.If you hear any other whispers going around the ecb will you let us know good and early.I hear you are also have sources in the US as i see in a previous comment that you have heard "noises coming from the fed".If you become privy to any more noises from either the fed or the ecb will you be sure to let us all know

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday February 8, 2007 @07:38PM

    I’d love to know where Paul gets his information because it’s not from the Financial Markets. The future’s market is currently pricing in a 75% chance of base rate reaching 4% by the end of 2007, and has done for some time (even before the hawish tones coming out of the ECB today). Also you can’t use the 3-Month rate as a predictor of the direction of base rate in the medium term.

    Let’s face facts. A house market crash is in no ones interests, not first time buyers, not existing home owners and definitely not vested interests. When you consider the amount of people employed in the construction industry, the amount of Government revenue (both direct and indirect) dependent on this sector and the fact that Ireland no longer controls its monetary policy (and therefore can’t respond in the A-typical way to a house market crash, i.e. cut interest rates to stabilise the economy) a major house market crash would be disastrous for this country. All the people hoping/promoting a house market crash may find if they get what they wish for they could end of being out of a job as a result.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: James Date: Thursday February 8, 2007 @08:46PM

    I really resent the begrudgers who are actually wishing Ireland into a recession. None of you remember the bleak times of the seventies and eighties when tens of thousands emigrated.

    I bought my house in 1994 having lived for ten years in USA and South Africa. All I wanted to do was come come.

    Now I want my children to be able to afford houses but more importantly I wish them a prosperous Ireland. Shame on the begrudgers for wishing a property downturn and all that will bring.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: TheOrb Date: Friday February 9, 2007 @03:40PM

    Right lets look at some of the facts as to why the Irish economy/property market is in serious trouble :

    1) The National Competitiveness Council has said that the underlying source of our current buoyant growth has shifted from exports towards construction activity and consumer demand.
    2) The construction sectors accounts for 24% of GDP compared to an EU average of 12%
    3) Last year we constructed 90,000 dwellings the corresponding figure in the UK with 15 times the population was 200,000 dwellings!
    4) This leads to 1 house in every 6 being vacant (CSO) the corresponding figure in the UK is 1 house in 31 is vacant.
    5) 82% of every single Euro borrowed in this country is going into property, this leads on to a situation where venture Capital Investment in Irish business amounted to 0.025% of the €8 billion Irish investors ploughed into overseas commercial property
    6) Last year the Irish Economy generated 83,000 jobs but here is the rub, 53,000 of these were in Construction and the Public sector.
    7) From the Irish central Bank in November 2006 :Irish Private sector borrowing was €315 billion our GDP income is €176 Billion!!
    8) Job losses-2,000 people have lost their jobs in last 6/8 weeks , and the worrying trend is these are the “high calibre jobs “ that are disappearing..
    9) The Irish current account with the rest of the world has now gone into deficit (A small economy like Ireland future depends on exports abroad not on buying and selling houses between ourselves)

    Ultimately the last few years of property madness will ruin the economic future of this country.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Saturday February 10, 2007 @05:33PM

    Right lets now look at the the important facts as to why the Irish property market is not in serious trouble
    1.The total value of housing stock stands at €528 billion,while outstanding mortgage balance is €113 billion,meaning that 78.6% equity exists in the residential proprty sector,i.e. it will take a 80% fall to make the market go into negative equity
    2.In the commercial market,turnover for 2006 was €3 billion, a 50% increase on 2005,hardly a sign of invetors running from the market
    3.Since 1996, Dublin has averaged 21.5% of the country,s housing yet its population has increased by 29%,leaving it substantially undersupplied.
    4.Our current density level of 2.7 is well below the UK average of 2.2. With no population growth it would take 4 years of building at current levels to reach the UK level of 2.2
    5.By Dec 2008,350,000 people will have increased our population to 4.4 million,far more than the UK is experiencing due to tighter immigration controls
    6. In the 4 year period that ended in Dec 06,net employment growth has grown by 80,000 per annum
    7.NCB,s 20/20 report estimate demand at 65,000 units per annum untill 2015 as household sizes converge to the EU and UK density norm of 2.2 and strong immigration continues.
    8.We had interest rates of over 5% prevailed through the first five years of the boom,yet we still saw appreciation of over 10% per annum
    9.Sales of new cars up 16% on 2006 through the first 2 weeks of January,hardly a sign of a country slowly going to its knees!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: eoin Date: Sunday February 11, 2007 @05:31PM

    Lets look at the number of reasons why the last message was factually nonsense.

    1. the total value of housing stock includes housing that is hundreds of years old. This is a red herring. No property collapse reduces the entire housing stock to less than the outstanding mortgages. how could it? Much housing is paid off. Some is inherited mortgage free. The only way that the value of all housing could be lower than the mortgage rate would be if everybody bought their house in the last year., and prices fell Property collapses have happened without this absurd scenario.
    2. The increase in commercial property - which is unrelated to housing - is another symptom of massive over-borrowing.
    3. The housing supply in Dublin is clearly not tight, as rents have not yet returned to the nominal values of 6 years ago. Housing supply increases of x% should be enough to increase supply for more than a population growth of x% as most housing units have more than one bedroom.
    4. Density levels are nonsense. It merely tells you what kind of house we traditionally live in; a semi-detached can supply more beds than a apartment. And nor is the UK lower than us, and nor are we at 2.7 ( the figure is 2.4).
    5) Britain does not have tighter controls than us. we have the same controls on immigration, as Britain, given the common travel area ( that is, in fact, why we opened our borders. They did).
    6. Most of the employment growth of 80,000 was construction related, or downstream effects thereof. If people borrow 50% of their GDP per-year, it will have this affect.
    7. The density norm is nonsense, once more, and the 2015 figure is 5 years after you last estimate of "convergence". Continued immigration depends on the property market, and construction, which depends on continued exponential growth in borrowing. It is, in fact, our dependence on immigration - which is dry up, and reverse in a downturn - which is our achilles heel.
    8. What a silly argument. The 5% years ago was on much lower cost housing. Affordability has been crushed by the latest rise in rates. at 5% the difference between rents and interest costs will be astronomical, not that they are anything but absurd now.
    9. Sales of anything, being up is not surprising given the exponential increases in borrowing and the Irish consumers penchant to spend "equity" in their houses as if it were real money.

    The pro-property fan-boys on this site never actually mention the source of Ireland's economic growth: private sector borrowing. Instead they extrapolate the present growth rate as if it were unrelated to borrowing and property construction, and talk about job creation and immigration as if they exist in a vacuum, and were unrelated to competitiveness or us actually producing something for export.

    So lets extrapolate in return shall we. Ireland's 5% growth rate depends on borrowing continuing to grow at 27-30% a year ( and see the mediocre return there),assuming this continues ( a 5% yearly GDP increase, and a 27% yearly increasein borrowing) then by 2015 private sector borrowing will end the year at 1000% of GDP, and ( of course) we will be borrowing about 270% of GDP per year. The maths is simple and left as an exercise for the reader.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Sunday February 11, 2007 @09:59PM

    Eoin,you misinformed clown,let me claify and correct your mistakes
    1.UK density level is 2.2,stonewall fact,so reassess your 2.4.E.U density norm also 2.2 and if you fail to recognise significance of said fact then you really should stick with the hairdressing
    2.Same controls on immigration?What planet have you spent the last 5 years on?
    3.So you believe that a colapse is imminent,but all property owned or inherited is immune,you silly person,go back to sleep
    4. commercial property unrelated,not a sign of market confidence?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Ger Date: Monday February 12, 2007 @07:18PM

    You may want to distinguish between the three types of commerical property. The last commerical property presentation I attended, it was noted that the retail, office and industrial sectors are not all growing at similar trends, in fact while the retail is running away with itself, the office sector is only plodding along nicely. In between we have the industrial sector.
    With respect to correlation, I would say the retail sector is perhaps the closet to residential property.
    Then again, residential property should never be taken as a whole but subdivided between the investor market and the home owner market. That's why some areas with a high conentration of investors will see weaker growth in the next few years as supply exceeds demand with investors exiting, while in the homeowner sector things "may" be different!
    I see interest rates according to 3 months futures contracts are expected to range between 3.8% & 4.2%.
    [URL]http://futures.fxstreet.com/futures/images/graf/mizuho/euribor.pdf[/URL]

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Tuesday February 13, 2007 @10:44AM

    According to the IPD property index office has overtaken retail as the top performing sector in 2006,recording growth of 27.6% in the year to dec 2006,compared to the retail sector which returned 26.7%.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Eoin Date: Wednesday February 21, 2007 @09:57PM

    you may need to attend another "presentation" soon as it seems that the one you are speaking about must have been about 3 years ago!Things have changed my friend!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: the mystery man Date: Monday February 12, 2007 @01:21PM

    1.Yes it is true that our housing stock includes property which is inherited,and mortgage free,but this fact is convieniently overlooked by the people talkin up the prospect of a collapse in the market.
    2.Increase in commercial property unrelated?A 50% increase in investment in 12 mths,surely this is an indicator of market confidence and a sign of buoyancy within the industry?
    3.Housing supply in Dublin is not tight?What are you on about?Rents have increased steadily over the last 2 yrs and the shortage in accomodation in dublin is evident by the num bers attending viewings of apts.30-40 different parties showing up for viewings,demand is extremely strong
    4.Density levels are nonsense?Eoin if you cannot understand the significance of a country with a population of 4million moving from a density level of 2.7 to a level of 2.2 then you really have no businness commentating here son.And our density level is 2.7 not 2.4 so check your facts before correcting what is an accepted fact(usefull tip here is to check with the esri,or prelim census figures)
    5.Ah "the common travel area",did you just make this bit up.No other country in Europe has experienced immigration on the same scale as us.Britain,France and Germany all have far tighter controls on immigration than us.
    6.Sales of anything being up 16%,especially new cars is another indicator of buoyancy as unimportant for the purposes of supporting your argument.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: TheOrb Date: Monday February 12, 2007 @04:22PM

    Car Sales

    September 2006 down 12% on 2005
    October 2006 down 12.8% on 2005
    November 2006 down 18.7% on 2005
    December 2006 down 29% on 2005

    FACT

    Is this a buyoant economy mystery man?? and given the amount of SSIA monies that has been maturing it is even more an indicator of a country up to its eyes in debt . It is going to be a bumby ride on the way down .This economy cannot continue to grow on debt and property.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: the mystery man Date: Tuesday February 13, 2007 @11:19AM

    Please try and quote facts accurately orb,you seem to have a tendency to embelish the truth
    Oct car sales down 4.51% on 2005
    Nov car sales up 1.8% on 2005
    Dec car sales were 992 in 2006,up from 603 in 2005,yes that is a 64% increase!
    Overall 2006 figure was 178,826,up 4.13% on 2005 figure.
    The trend continued into January when sales were 46,179 for the whole month,a 7.85% increase on January 2006 figure.
    Those are the facts orb

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: TheOrb Date: Tuesday February 13, 2007 @01:19PM

    My figures are from CSO , you can check them on RTE website , THEY ARE 100% FACT .

    If you are so confident about your figures what is your source , Sherry Fitz perhaps or maybe the fountain of knowledge that is Austin Hughes???

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: the mystery man Date: Wednesday February 14, 2007 @02:49PM

    The CSO merely measure the amount of new cars registered in a month,RTE gets the sales figure from SIMI(Society for The Irish Motor Industry),either way both the CSO and SIMI come up with the same end % for 2006,that sales were up 4.13%.I also find it interesting that you have ommited the January 07 figure as it did,nt fit in with your argument.Let me reiterate it,sales up 7% over the jan 06 level

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: eoin Date: Wednesday February 14, 2007 @02:17PM

    "Britain,France and Germany all have far tighter controls on immigration than us."

    Britain has the exact same controls on immigration as us. This is just ot getting in, so let me re-iterate. We have the same controls as them. I If you can find out exactly how the UK is different from us on immigration with the EU, please inform. ( um, clowns?)

    The "density" levels are a mere abstraction, the last remaining gimmick which the banks and their apologists cling on to. A country which has traditionally higher levels of beds per house does not need to reach the same level of housing density as countries with traditionally lower levels of beds per housing unit. Beds is what it is about, not units of housing. By the way, in countries with a ratio of a house per 2.2 people you would expect about 2 people per house, or less, unless there is massive overcapacity. And therefore expect the house to be small, maybe ( shockingly) 2 bedrooms. Clearly this situation, although it may be "common" in Europe ( I suspect, however that 2.2 is the EU extreme, not the average) is not sustainable, because either a lot of people live on their own, as a couple, or as a single mom/dad, and bad long term demographics. One really cant argue that we have "good" demographics ( i.e. largish families) and need small apartments. And places like that have bad long term grwoth rate, and cheaper houses. Are the apologists saying that when we get to 2.2 houses ( in 4 years seemingly) we will see houses collapse to Berlin levels. Cool, so.

    Housing which tends towards apartments is going to lead, by it's nature, to more housing per capita as there are less beds per capita which is the only useful statistic. Europeans have been living in apartmetns since the undustrial revolution. Since we have a large stock of three-four bedroomed housing, and since we are building plenty more ( all those empty once- off houses down the country) and since we have an unoccupied rate which an order of magnitude higher than our neighbours I think it is fair to dismiss this last remaining "statistic" of the property fan-boys.

    Lastly, nobody dealt with the substantive issue of my post which was the increase, relative to GDP, of private debt, mostly mortgages. Unless this rate decreases to less than the rate of GDP increase ( which would necessitate a reduction of 80% in he increase in lending) we will continue to a level of private debt which will exponentially increase faster than GDP. Sustainable? No.

    Lastly, immigration can reverse. Keep saying it.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Adam Smith! Date: Thursday February 15, 2007 @09:42AM

    I agree with Eoin,the return that investors are getting from private sector borrowing is just ridiculous,
    ISEQ 06-27.8%
    Offices 06-27.6%
    Retail 06-26.7%
    The returns measured for both the office and retail sector is from ungeared property portfolios,portfolios with some gearing would obviously return more.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Friday February 9, 2007 @03:40PM

    it is surely in no ones interest to see a crash of the market but I think there is a certain risk because part of the celtic tiger is based on that - the Irish government can influence the interest rates but only up to a certain level - it all comes down to the development of the international interest rates - and when I think of the long term chart for these interest rates there is a risk for the Irish property market because there seem to be many of these so called "trackers" - anyway I really do hope the best for the Irish economy because I think the Irish really deserved a period of prosperity - perhaps it all falls into place in the end - the large economies (Germany/France) recover only slowly and this could help keeping the interest rates down

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Saturday February 10, 2007 @08:32AM

    I don't think that people are begrudgers - I think that they are been realistic about what's happening here in Ireland. We have had it so good for the last ten years that nobody wants the market to turn - but how much longer can it go on. If house prices keep rising as they have over the last couple of years and employment keeps dropping we are going to be in a sorry state as a country anyway. Wouldn't it be better that house prices ease off to stop ftb's, trader-upers getting themselves into anymore debt. With a guaranteed interest rate rise in March and whispers of another one later in the year - I think we all need to open our eyes and see the wood for the tree's instead of living in the fairytale that has been this wonderful country for the last 10 years. I remember the late 70's and 80's and certainly don't want to go back there but something is definitely going to have to give.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Tenant 4 Date: Sunday February 11, 2007 @09:08PM

    Just food for thought for investors. I recently moved to a new double within ten minutes driving distance of cork city centre. It is an en suite room and the rent is 300 euro per month. The house next door is on the market since Christmas for over 650,000 euro. It had also been let up to now. Nobody wanted to hear that the rent was so cheap especially colleagues at work who had bought houses and let rooms. It is now very difficult to let single rooms in even the most luxurious houses.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: In the market Date: Saturday February 17, 2007 @01:31AM

    Recently I sold a house in Castlebar (Co.Mayo) for 5000 below asking price, the property took 8 months to sell, 3 views, 1 bid. With the volitility in the current market I was v.happy to exit. Last week we looked at a 2 bed apt. in Cork St. Dublin for 420,000. Only 1/2 the units were sold as buyers become more cautious. Can you blame them?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Fergus Date: Sunday February 18, 2007 @08:42PM

    I think the market is still very strong. Witness the number of new developments still being proposed and built by our erstwhile property developers.
    The Adamstown development will be a litmuss test for the market and I am very confident that there will be strong take-up.
    I hate the begrudgers who never bought and now wish the whole economy to collapse so that they could be proved right. I think you got it wrong lads!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: TheOrb Date: Monday February 19, 2007 @11:22AM

    Fergus ,

    The property market is still strong and your facts to back this up are ......


    Here are the facts , McDowell has added even more uncertainty to the already fragile market with his comments on Stamp Duty.Would you as an FTB buy now or wait the 10 months to see what happens in December 2007 budget??Buyers who are already thin on the ground will now vanish.

    On top of this, we had on Friday unbelievable growth figures for the Eurozone . The highest growth levels for 6 years , which even Austin Hughes described as "Astonishing". Interesting to see that AIB capital markets expect the ECB rate to be 4.25% by year end . A far cry from your end of the rate hike cycle Paul Murphy.

    Also not all of us are begrudgers who did not buy , those of us in our early 20's were still in school when this property maddness kicked off . How do you propose we should have bought a house ?? The money from our part time jobs perhaps???

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Monday February 19, 2007 @01:25PM

    The Orb is back I see!Was at 3 first time viewings for 2 bed apts in Phibsboro on Sat,over 20 different parties at each of them,asking prices min €370,000,judging by demand they will all sell closer to €400,000.Rent for 2 beds in Phibsboro now between €1400-€1500,10% ahead of last year,1 beds in Dublin 1 now over €1000 with an upper limit of €1250.The market is on the rocks allright!
    Regarding the gospel according to AIB,try reading other commentators analysis,like Dan McLaughlin of BOI who has a different viewpoint and believes that rates won,t go beyond 3.75% this year.
    I,m stll waiting on your reply re the falling car sales(or should that be rising car sales)!!!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: The Orb Date: Monday February 19, 2007 @11:23PM

    Yes,
    I agree the Orb is back desperately spreading the Gospel of doom to all and sundry.

    There is a site thepropertypin.com which tracks the massive downturn in property lol.. ie a drop of E5000 is evidence of a massive collapse. My collegues and I frequent this site to have a laugh at people who spend their lives searching for a few property drops.

    Well dream on lads. The party is still going on and hopefully will continue for a long time to come. This country is the envy of Europe and I am just so happy that I live here and was lucky enough to buy my ppp in Sandymount in 1993 for £150000.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Tuesday February 20, 2007 @11:22AM

    Your right Orb,just checked out that property pin site,its hilarious,spotters all over the country doin a property dance in the hope that it will bring on the famous collapse!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: paul murphy Date: Tuesday February 20, 2007 @01:50PM

    Irish exports rose 2% in value in 2006 compared with 13.7% rise in German exports from the CSO today .

    Maybe the bears are right and this economy cannot just grow by us buying and selling houses to each other .

    4.25% interest rates here we come , all the amateur property investors ( I include myself in this ) may well get badly burned by greed .

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  • Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Tuesday February 20, 2007 @03:44PM

    The last message was not posted by paul murphy but rather by that muppet who calls himself "the orb" but also goes under the alias of jason7,Eoin and anonymous poster depending on his disposition that day.He has proven himself to be quite a capable clown and his comments have provoked much ridicule.Please continue to entertain us orb!

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  • Re:

    Posted By: the mystery man Date: Wednesday February 21, 2007 @01:20PM

    Hi paul , like you, I to have changed my mind on the Irish property market after seeing today, 6 of the worlds largest banks are predicting with certainty 4.00% interest rates by June .

    Maybe Dan maclaughlin was wrong again ( he has been for the last 2 years but I just overlooked that) I suppose Bank of Ireland with 72% Loan to Value ratio are highly exposed to a down turn in the Irish Property Market and just maybe Dan is more of a salesman for BOI rather than an honest commentator I thought he was .

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  • Re:

    Posted By: the Orb Date: Wednesday February 21, 2007 @03:47PM

    It appears that my negative attitude towards the irish property market stems from a deep seated begrugdery trait that we orbs are famous for.
    Having missed the boat and gravy train,as i had insufficient pocket money,i developed a chip on my left shoulder which complements my begrudging nature
    I now spend my waking hours trying to interpret economic data which i don,t understand but can quote verbatim,so it sounds like i know what i am talking about
    Sometimes i even do a "property dance" around my living room with a pat rabbite speech as my background music,in a vain attempt to bring on the famous collapse which i have predicted for 11 years now!
    My attitude is changing now though as i have been finally tamed and brought back into line by both paul and mystery man who have both corrected me numerous times and educated me on the important fundamentals of the property market.I now realise that up to this point i have been full of shit,but now that i have been corrected i can see that the party is set to continue for many years to come

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  • Re:orb

    Posted By: Rose Date: Tuesday February 27, 2007 @12:17AM

    Thanks Paul for warning us about 'the Orb' and his various alias names what a creep, that is just spooky to have so many different names on this site.

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  • Re: orb

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Tuesday February 27, 2007 @09:43AM

    No problem Rose,he,s a bit of a muppet allright!Keep your eyes peeled though as he may try to slip under the radar again using another name.Keep a close watch and post any sightings or developments up

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Jason7 Date: Wednesday February 21, 2007 @06:14PM

    It would appear that i have been proved wrong again,and the property market is not in any trouble.I just got swept up in all the hype and believed the nonense which unqualified people were spouting re a "collapse".I now see all that nonsense for what it is,and can understyand that appreciation of 13% in 2006 and expected appreciation of 6% is in fact not a collapse and is in fact quite a decent return!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Fergus Date: Wednesday February 21, 2007 @08:44PM

    Excellent change of heart orb. Nobody wants house prices to fall. The implications for us would be too great to contemplate.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Eoin Date: Wednesday February 21, 2007 @09:54PM

    Excellent orb,i too have had a change of heart and now believe that the housing market is in fact very stable and in absolutely no danger of collapsing.I would like to thank my tutors paul and also mystery man who both have helped me come to terms and understand the fundamentals of the property market.Thanks a mill goys!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: lotto Date: Thursday February 22, 2007 @10:00AM

    Average House price in Dublin 450k
    Average Mort Repayments 1,800
    Average Sal 40k pa
    Average monthly take home pay 2,266
    Remainder of take home pay after Mort Repayment 466 euro
    Car Reapyment 255 euro
    Bills 100 euro
    Food 350 euro
    Car Running Costs 120 euro
    Entertainment 350 euro
    An average person would need to borrow 650 euro per month to live.
    I feel a crash.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Cee Date: Thursday February 22, 2007 @10:49PM

    I notice in the previous report by Pat McArdle that there is an insert box showing average time to sell for Q3 2006 at 58 days. However, there is no time to sell figure for Q4 2006 and I think that this information is just as important as the asking prices to help us assess the market.

    Also, in the press release accompanying the Damien Kiberd Q4 report, Daft say that they had 55,000 properties listed at end of 2006 compared to 2005. What does this mean? Maybe a lot of this can be explained by Daft's own impressive growth.

    Finally, I heard on news this morning that there could be two more rate rises from ECB by summer. I was under the impression that most likely there would be only one more around March or April. Has something changed?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: colop Date: Friday February 23, 2007 @11:02AM

    If my calculations are correct 55,000 for sale on Daft 85,000 to be built in 2007 = 140,000 houses for sale in 2007
    On average 50,000 do the leaving cert every year that's appox 3 houses for every person that does the leaving prospective buyers in 5-10 years time.
    This thing of non national buying houses. What bank manger would loan a polish construction worker €400k. Some crack running around backstreets in warsaw trying to repocess.
    Tighten your belts the crash is on

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: the mystery man Date: Sunday February 25, 2007 @07:31PM

    Well done there colop,i see you must have done honours maths in the leaving cert then.Those millionaire developers must be really stupid people building 3 times too many houses,its a pity they did,nt do the same maths exercise as you,as they could have saved themselves a fortune!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: TheOrb Date: Monday February 26, 2007 @01:40PM

    Paul/Mystery Man ( one in the same person)

    Interesting to see your hero Dan MacLaughlin is now predicting 4% , I thought the futures markets was only pricing in 3.75% , was that not the top of the cycle ?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Monday February 26, 2007 @05:40PM

    Orb,Jason7,Eoin and anonymous poster(one and the same person),We,ll give you the one about interset rates allright,but i won,t concede that a collapse is imminent in the property market.We,ll just have to wait and see on that one.I also noticed that you have not yet commentated on the Jan 07 car sales yet,CSO figures released last week showed that REGISTRATIONS were up 20% on 06 figure,not the act of a country going to its knees!

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Cee Date: Monday February 26, 2007 @01:23PM

    It is a shame that some contributions are rather snide and don't contribute to a balanced debate about what is really happening out there.

    Today it is reported that interest rates will soon rise to 4%. According to the RTE business news today, last week Dutch bank ABN Amro predicted that the ECB would bring rates up to 4.5% by the end of this year.

    We have heard a lot from the experts when property values were rising but there has been a deafening silence since the start of 2007. Apart from interest rates, sentiment plays a huge role and this has swung into negative teritory maybe even very negative territory. Front page stories like "soaring repossessions" in yesterday's Sunday Indo will scare people even more. The financial institutions should make a public statement.

    I have long predicted a decline in values during 2007 but a crash is in nobody'd interest. In fact, it would probably cause a recession. In the meantime, there is a lot of disquiet and confusion which is exacerbated by stories about repossessions etc. If you look at the home page of daft you will see today that there are 75,000 properties on-line of which 12,000 came on in the past 24 hours!

    This is extremely alarming and I for one would welcome a reality check from some of our leading experts.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Counter Date: Monday February 26, 2007 @05:19PM

    One slight correction to the mail regarding so many new houses for sale in the last 24hrs. Most of them are just being up-dated by the estate agents. What I can tell you is that at some stage in 2006 I can remember someone from Daft on radio saying that the number for sale had doubled from approx. 15,000 to 30,000 (or words to that effect). Of course I could have misheard.

    At the same time, Daft states itself that the numbers for sale in November 2006 was 55,000. In January at some stage I checked and there were 60,000 plus. About 2 weeks ago there were around 71,000 and now its approaching 76,000. I think there was a slight dip from Friday 23/2/07 to Monday 26/2/07 but in the last hour about another 100 have been added.

    There could be many reasons for these increases e.g. duplicate adverts, the figures include overseas properties etc.. However my take is that by and large supply is increasing.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Monday February 26, 2007 @05:34PM

    The Article in yesterdays indo was a disgracefull piece of scaremongering by a newspaper obviously scraping the bottom of the barrel for news.An entire page was devoted to slagging Joe Duffy off.The article about repossessions was based entirely on hearsay and not one authoritative source was quoted.Figures used were 5 years old.Discussing it today with maybe 10 different people and not one of them has heard of a repossession happening.
    I do know that 116 units were sold in Adamstown last weekend, and that figures released by the CSO last week showed that the registrations of new cars were up 20% on the January 06 figure.These are not the actions of an economy about to fall into recession despite what the indo would have us believe

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Printer 40 Date: Monday February 26, 2007 @05:39PM

    Surely there must be a mistake in Daft Figures.
    No way did in excess of 14,000 come on to the site in the last 24 hours.
    There would be a malfunction on there system.
    Can someone from daft confirm before i think of putting my property portfolio up for sale.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Matt Date: Tuesday February 27, 2007 @12:52PM

    Having lived through three property boom and busts in Australia the rise in car sales here doesn't surprise me. As the market breached affordability those who withdrew often compensated themselves by buying a new car. A very human response, the same thing may be happening here.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Julian Date: Wednesday February 28, 2007 @08:51PM

    The vindictiveness and petty mindedness of the Irish baffles me. I reviewed that web site thepropertypin.com. There are guys out there gloating at property drops and ringing up estate agents for a laugh to put in dummy bids.

    Shame on them for their small minded venality.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Thursday March 1, 2007 @10:49AM

    Well said,you can see the same thing with some of the comments posted here.Some individuals would welcome a collapse with glee.The begrudging nature of the Irish comes to the fore again

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday March 13, 2007 @01:10PM

    From the amount of posts up here by home owners it seems people are worried about their investments..

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Johnny Date: Thursday March 1, 2007 @02:27PM

    There are also people tracking the actual drop in prices in the market, it's a good way to inform people that this is actually occuring and not to get into the over inflated property market. THe Estate agents and some economists in this country are lying about the state of the market to grab whats left while they can. Now that's a typical irish approach.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Stamarry Date: Wednesday February 28, 2007 @09:41PM

    Listen here lads, I'm an old hat at this, and I can tell you that there's not a snowballs chance in hell of house prices going significantly down in the medium term. So if you are planning on buying, do your homework, know your prices, take a deep breath and GO. On many occasions - most notably in 2000, mid-range house prices fell by 20% - and not a squeak from the media. The dot com crash caused a huge loss of confidence, but we all recovered and got on with it........Within months things were flying again. I watch prices all the time, as I have some properties and am always interested. On particular roads, prices rise and fall every year. For example, on Richelieu Park Sandymount, you could argue they dropped by up to 30% last year; but alas, get a few people in the auction-room, and an unpanicked seller ( the key to making money in this game ) and up they go again.

    When I started in the eighties, interest rates were a mere 18%, house prices were falling, there was no stampduty ( or it was so low I don't remember);income tax was over 70%, the country was awash with debt; 50% of graduates were unemployed. The market even grew in those times, so I don't see it falling now.

    Some free tips:

    1. Buy the very best you can afford and you will somehow manage the repayments.

    2. Old is nearly always better value than new - but be patient, you may need to renovate over time.

    3. Period properties have an edge over new builds; and relative to say London, there are very few of them in Dublin.......

    4. Don't listen to anyone who says London is cheap: when you factor in like-for-like areas, its not. The equivalent of Rathgar in London is almost twice the price per sq. ft.

    5. If buying abroad, be extra careful. Research the economy, - and most importantly, what are the locals paying in rent or purchase prices? Property looks real cheap in Prague when you are buying, but try selling there? Property in the South of France looks cheap, but I have seen it take over a year to sell good properties there. The underlying econommic performance of a country is the main determinant of house prices.

    6. If buying commercial property, be even more careful. I know people who lost serious money in Dublin commerial property in recent years ( even with the boom ...)

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Cee Date: Thursday March 1, 2007 @11:25AM

    Again today, the main headline on the front page of the Indo screams "Five More Interest Rate Hikes Forecast". Source quoted is Jim Power, Friends First who "predicts" that this will happen by year end. Out of curiosity, I accessed Friends First website and the report from Jim Power is there - published today in fact. In this outlook, Mr Power predicts THREE more increases by year end - not five.

    Check it out at http://www.friendsfirst.ie/artman/uploads/outlook_feb_07.pdf

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday March 1, 2007 @12:36PM

    Why all of the hostility?

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Johnny Date: Thursday March 1, 2007 @02:35PM

    http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s%5Bcc_id%5D=ga6&search=1&s%5Bftb%5D=1&s%5Bmxp%5D=317500&x=8&y=8

    14000 is alot.... the properypin.com/forum while it does have a socialist slant... you can't deny that prices have fallen... one propery in lucan fell 65k this week from 450,000 to 395,000.... 10 years is a long time for an upward trend...

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: 2 Morrow Date: Thursday March 1, 2007 @05:33PM

    Lads the best thing this country could have is a mini recession. Anyone looking for 560k for a 3 bed in Carpenterstown deserves one

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: bia Date: Thursday March 8, 2007 @12:24PM

    Happy Times
    Develepors have come together to reduce supply.
    House prices will rise again

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: dunkirk Date: Thursday March 15, 2007 @12:43AM

    Cant believe the drivel of some bloggers, Mr P Murphy in particular. Murphy's Law in action I presume

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Paul Murphy Date: Thursday March 15, 2007 @09:36AM

    We can see which side your bread is buttered on "Dunkirk",at least have the balls to put your name up.If you want to appropriate facts as "drivel",in order to support your fairly obvious views re the residential market at least do us all a favour and tell us why?...............

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: ewd3 Date: Wednesday July 1, 2009 @01:47PM

    This thread makes interesting reading in hindsight.

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  • Re: The Daft Report Q4 2006

    Posted By: Timbuktu Date: Thursday July 2, 2009 @12:39AM

    I would love to hear from Paul Murphy. :D

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