The rental market is changing, and changing rapidly

Lorcan Sirr, Lecturer

7th Nov 2012

Lorcan Sirr is a lecturer in housing at Dublin Institute of Technology. He is a renter, has been a home-owner, and until recently was also a landlord.

The rental market is changing, and changing rapidly

The Daft.ie Report has always been an interesting publication, providing a raft of rent-related information and giving a snapshot of life in the rental market. But who, and what, was this rental market?

With a small degree of artistic licence, I would say that it frequently comprised landlords with a couple of flats that they, often reluctantly, dealt with after their day jobs, if at all; more were landlords who had inherited their properties and really didn't have the knowledge, interest or resources to manage them properly (the 'accidental landlords'); even more were developers hanging on to their units until capital values improved; and finally, there's occasional landlord who took an active part in managing their property and tenants.

And on the tenant side? The rental sector has long had a maligned reputation as a refuge for unruly students, separated fathers, the unemployed, the poor, recent immigrants, and the socially marginalised. Government policy has always been so heavily weighted towards home ownership that there had to be something wrong if you couldn't or didn't own your own home.

The properties themselves reflected this tenant stereotype, with many being on the marginal side of habitable. And here I withdraw my artistic licence, for as a renter myself, I have seen what the rental market frequently offers - quite recently - and what landlords thought was acceptable to ask rent for: damp, draughty, cold, unhealthy units often not meeting basic human needs with barred windows and furniture that a dump would reject. The landlords wouldn't have stayed in their own rental units, but it was alright for someone else.

The average Irish landlord has between 1.6 and 2.1 properties, depending on which figures (below) are used, and less than 1.25% has ten or more properties, reflecting an undeveloped and amateur market. The amateur nature of the rental market is highlighted in the 31.72% discrepancy in the number of tenancies registered with the Private Rented Tenancies Board in December 2010 (231,828) and the number of tenancies recorded by the state Census just four months later (305,377). This is symptomatic of a fear of regulation - a typical amateur notion - rather than recognition that regulation would actually strengthen the market, and indeed, rents.

The legislation governing the landlord and tenant relationship also reflects this amateurism. No doubt influenced by demands at the time, the Residential Tenancies Act 2004 is now self-defeating in its function. It is heavily biased towards supporting the landlord and as such affords landlords a range of, in my opinion, spurious reasons whereby they can recover possession of their property.

The Act therefore perpetuates the amateur nature of the market by actively deterring those who would want to rent for the long term.

But the rental market is changing, and changing rapidly, and both the Act and landlords are going to have to adapt if they want to capture what the market has to offer.

The numbers of individuals and families renting has rocketed in the last five years. Across Ireland, about 29% of all people now rent, with 18.5% renting from the private sector. This is roughly the same level as in the mid-1950s. But what is more interesting is the speed of change: numbers renting in the private sector have increased 86% (up from 9.9%) since 2006.

Not alone that, but those renting have also changed, as is reflected in the rental increases for specific types of properties. Family homes are now in big demand as often previous owners feel reluctant to risk their savings again on the gamble that is property ownership.

Then there are the 'DOODs' - the Don't Own Or Drive cohort - who are well-educated, well-travelled, demanding, employed people who would rather trade a car-parking space and ownership for proximity to services and a decent location to live in. They could get a mortgage if they wanted to, but it's not really for them.

These groups are the antithesis of those who have traditionally rented in the private sector. And no, not all these renters are hanging on until the market 'recovers'. The recent SCSI/Red C survey shows that 61% of renters would be happy to rent long term, suitable property and terms being available.

Rents in solid established suburban locations are increasing, meaning that although the type of renter may be changing, where they want to live is not. Rents are up in Dublin in general and Galway city, and falls in rent are easing elsewhere. Rental stock is falling everywhere.

All this means there is a new market out there ready to be satisfied. It also means that to capitalise on this market several things have to change.

1) Broadly, landlords have to professionalise and increase the standard of accommodation on offer to meet the requirements of an increasingly demanding tenant sector. If they don't, they will miss out on the prime tenants who are now out there seeking accommodation. It also means registering with the PRTB as required by law. It isn't an option.
2) The Residential Tenancies Act has to change to better balance the needs of tenants with those of landlords. The RTA is currently the opposite of what it needs to be, and deters potential renters from the market rather than supporting them.
3) Government policy has to translate into legislation. Equity of tenure is a commendable concept, but would be better still if it had the force of law where it balances the rights of those who want to rent with those who want to own.

The Daft.ie Report started off with a relatively narrow market at its core, but that market has now grown considerably. It may come as a surprise even to itself, but Daft.ie and its figures arguably reflect the most significant cultural shift in the Irish property-psyche in the last fifty years.

Enjoy.

HIGHLIGHTS:

Rental Price Index
Rental Price Index

Stock and flow of rental properties
Stock and Flow of Rental Properties


SNAPSHOT:

Snapshot of Rents Nationwide
Snapshot of Rents Nationwide

Discuss This Article

  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Wednesday November 7, 2012 @02:47PM

    Hi Lorcan,

    Interesting article especially in how it expresses the contradiction between standard and legislation, landlord versus tenant rights. But despite the fact that the issues are very clear on the ground, its been considered acceptable for so long. And this is evidenced by the fact that it was only when you were renting to fully understand this, also. And this illustrates the nature of the "bystander syndrome" concerning this feature of the Irish economy.

    Glad to see someone in the "industry" , and an academic who educates Estate Agents etc, is questioning things seriously, here. Artistic lisense re daft report: that's always been the case!!!

    The Land War in the 19th century was a driver in the formation of our National identity. We teach kids about this in secondary scholl, but this heritage is just history at this point, as The Gombeen replaced the Colonial presence, and still does.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: louise Date: Wednesday November 7, 2012 @04:49PM

    I have never been so glad to a report like this! lanlords treat tenants terrible! even thought these tenants are paying their mortgages!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Fred Date: Wednesday November 7, 2012 @09:55PM

    We are struggling and private rents are increasing? Oh no!

    This is the horrible thing about renting in Ireland, prices can fluctuate so much. In 2008 I was paying 640 punts PM and that went to 1400 PM euros by 2008. It dipped to 1100 in recent years and thats liveable. So here we go again the squeeze is on.

    Dont think we can take rent increases like this anymore.

    Aside from the $ we have been treated very badly by landlords and letting agencies despite always being on time with rent and never missing a payment. Shoddy furniture thats a joke and is put in a skip and then replaced on exit at the renters expense as the LL wont store anything.

    Its a joke renting in Ireland.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: landlord Date: Thursday November 8, 2012 @01:51PM

    Great to see rents rise again. Tired of dirty tenants ruining my properties and thinking they can leave the palce in such a mess. If tenants expect high quality furniture etc, they will need to respect it and be forced to pay higher security deposits to cover it when they leave. I think landlords need to up the secuirty deposit to make tenansts repsect the place or else cover all the damage.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Friday November 9, 2012 @07:48PM

    Sir,

    Your "Dirty tenants" contribute to your investment portfolio which you chose to play. Unlike most other options, by being involved in property and earning rent from tenants; you may be surprised to consider that you have a level of responsibility which goes with your investment.

    Why do "your" tenants think they can leave the place in such a mess. Your "dirty" attitude to your client base, may have something to do with the pattern of behavior you describe.

    Your tenants are stakeholders in your enterprise, whether you like it or not. And if you care about your portfolio, it may surprise you to look in the mirror and contemplate that you are undermining your own investment better than any interest rate hike can, with your approach.

    As you well know, it serves you very well under current legislation to furnish the rental. So think about the benefit you already enjoy with this; and get your tenants decent furniture. People live in your "properties" and use furniture, be reasonable, honour your tenants, and you may find you're dealing with less of a mess.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: john cahill Date: Thursday November 22, 2012 @08:31AM

    I agree with you and i am a renter .. i have shared before normally with the Polish and they were clean and tidy .. there is a hardcore of renters who have not got a clue about cleanliness and think the landlord must do everything for them.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Jonesy Date: Thursday November 8, 2012 @03:11PM

    It is cheaper to buy now than rent , if your mortgage is 400 a month then 100 is interest , thats the real cost , the 300 goes to pay down debt thus increasing your wealth .
    I know people who rent and they do so for the location , but what happens to them when they are pensioners ?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Anonymous Date: Thursday December 27, 2012 @11:42AM

    'It is cheaper to buy now than rent , if your mortgage is 400 a month then 100 is interest , thats the real cost , the 300 goes to pay down debt thus increasing your wealth .
    I know people who rent and they do so for the location , but what happens to them when they are pensioners ? '


    In reply to this jonesy, your figures are totally wrong I am sorry to tell you, if anything it is the reverse, €300 interest and €100 captial down payment, also, lets not forget up keep of property and down keep of property, it is an immovable asset, and is the first thing the government target to tax, for that reason, it cannot be moved like cash, I am really surprised that after the ponzi scheme that went on for a decade,that someone would ever buy again, historically, irish house prices have since the 60's been flat barely keeping up with inflation, it was never a place to make a quick buck,until the tiger of course,which was a world of make believe,where the super rich took the ordinary decent folk of this country to the dry cleaners,because they could,before advocating buying,what should happen is the banks should make reparations to the owners,and take these distressed mortagages out of the equation,then rents will fall to affordable levels,and we can all get back to living like decent folk,a little wiser for those that fleeced us, let the banks and the government sort this conundrum out - its possible but requires the will of the people.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Ger Date: Saturday November 10, 2012 @09:18PM

    In the region of 8,000 new homes will be built across the country this year and while this represents a reduction on last year's figure, it is still a remarkable low level of output. The favourable economic outlook - sustained levels of job creation, strong wage growth, maturing SSIAs, buoyant consumer spending - and the continued increase in population will ensure demand remains strong. Average price growth of 5 per cent looks likely this year, which is a far more sustainable rate of increase than the double-digit growth rates of last year. Even after taking into account the last two recent interest rate increases, affordability for first-time buyers actually improved in the first couple of months of 2011, thanks in large part to the changes in mortgage interest relief for first-time buyers announced in Budget 2011. The benign outlook for interest rates in the year ahead, with at most one more rise expected before the ECB will put rates on hold for an extended period, and the more moderate pace of price growth should see affordability improve again in the latter half of 2013 To sum up, the residential property market is performing well, particularly when compared to spring 2008 and 2009 rather than the overheated market environment dominated by spiralling prices in spring 2006. Bricks and mortar have consistently proved to be a reliable long-term investment - nothing has changed in this respect

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Jim Murray Date: Monday November 12, 2012 @02:00PM

    I've enjoyed the ebb and flo of the above debate. What strikes me is how familiar it all is. I lived in Australia from the early seventies to the mid nineties. In that time I experienced Three Boom and busts in the Australian property market. Each time the property crash also brought about an economic recession lasting around five years before the whole cycle started again. The initial fall in house prices was of the order of 30% in the first year. The market would then stagnate for years until wage inflation made houses seem cheapish and affordable again. It should be noted that Australia had a very high immigration intake through all of these cycles. Demand was always there, affordability for first home buyers was not, their vacation from the market was, in each case, the first sign of trouble. The difference this time in Ireland is that house prices seem to me vastly now more deflated than the aussie prices ever were i.e its a good time to buy if you want to save on rent and watch you house increase in value..... you will see this was a banking failure not a property crash.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Gerry King Date: Thursday November 15, 2012 @02:19AM

    Hi, I rent a small country house in Castleblayney Co Monaghan, It is ofch which is very hard on heating oil, plus the house is not energy certified, what is the value of this house, im paying away above the price, responces would be gratfull, Cheers

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: jim Higgins Date: Friday November 16, 2012 @02:41PM

    A small country house in Castleblayney Co Monaghan with ofch which is very hard on heating oil, plus the house is not energy certified will be worth €127,816 regards

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: James Molloy Date: Monday November 19, 2012 @10:18AM

    The Irish property market isn´t unique. Most banks in distressed property markets are struggling to provide financing; conditions in the USA, UK and Spain are no different.
    Investors shouldn´t be feeling too sorry about it either - there are unprecedented Irish real estate opportunities out there for people with cash and they would be a lot harder to secure if financing was available.
    Potential cash buyers should bear in mind that (a) refinance options will be available in the future when conditions soften and (b) if financing was widely available today, prices would be far higher.
    The truth is that Irish banks need to give priority to lending to first time buyers. These young buyers are the source of a real recovery. Once that foundation is in place, investors who bought prime property with cash during the drought years will reap the rewards.
    I´m very optimistic about the future. The Irish property market will recover eventually, and in the meantime continue to source the best deals I can for (cash) investors.
    While we wait for that to happen, spare a thought for the people in their 30s still stuck in their parents’ houses because they can´t afford a 20% deposit, or worse, the young couples in one bed apartments putting off starting a family because they can´t upgrade to something bigger.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Garry Hayes Date: Tuesday November 20, 2012 @02:45PM

    The problem with the housing market is that its significance has changed. Rather than simply being a market that reflects demand for somewhere to live and the concomittant credit to satisfy that, it is now an indicator not only of national economic health but also the situation within the credit industry itself.

    This may sound a trite thing to say but nonetheless it deserves consideration. Arguably, the less interested a country and its citizens are in the housing market, the more economically healthy it is.

    How so? Quite simply - it means that those needing housing, are able to satisfy their demand either by purchase, credit purchase or through the rental market. As in the UK, this undynamic approach has long not existed for a number of reasons.

    The reasons are that homeowners have for a long time bought their homes not just to live in but as a capital investment. Furthermore, many of them have lost in this game and are in ' negative equity ' or are debtors without the collateral to back their debts.

    This is not the end of the story though. The lenders of credit to house-owners or buyers are an essential creator of credit for the financial services industry; in particular AIB and BOI and the Banks that so graciously bundled their assets into Property.

    Again this may sound trite but it means that the Irish have long altered their attitudes to housing. We are not talking about Shwabian housewives here who buy one house for life on a 30 year mortgage to live in, we are talking about yuppies who buy to make a capital profit and trade up.

    The change in the defining characteristics of the Irish housing market mirror what happened in the UK during the de-regulation of the Thatcher years. A curious case of emulation of the Brits by the Irish. In fact, it was the sclerotic aspect of the mass-credit markets and the far more efficient workings of the money funds that was competing for funds to the disadvantage of ~Irish Banks.

    In fact, now the money funds are no longer so predominant as they had become but the issue of funds for Banks is no less serious. In a nutshell, where do you get the money to lend if you borrow short, and lend long? In today's world?

    Again the answer must mean that the housing market must be resuscitated in order for the circulation of credit to be restored, adding momentum to growth and employment. Unfortunately, the status quo ante 2008 looks far from being restorable as illustrated by this article.

    Again there is not much new here. It does however raise the whole question of the housing market since there are competing economic priorities here which make the housing market somewhat of a ' Damnosa Hereditas '.

    The argument is quite simple. If the success of the housing market is a major determinant of the profit-maximisation of the Banks, then its resuscitation will always be liable to result in an asset bubble as occurred in 2007/8. House owners and buyers are only too aware of this, and willing to participate in this game, even though the number of winners must be open to question.

    Not only this, the increase in prices and focus of so many resources and so much energy on housing results in an opportunity cost elsewhere; namely consumption. Of course this cost is obscured since the resultant boom creates consumer credit demand rather than savings demand.

    In a pure cloistered world, it would be better if people consumed more from the excess of savings they were able to amass from their income due to cheaper housing available in a pure housing market uncomplicated by credit and investment considerations. The economy would be more dynamic rather than less even if the profit-maximation of the banks was the opportunity cost!

    The sclerotic effect of high real estate prices can no better be seen than in the UK, where in spite of paltry overall demand, prices remain stubbornly high. The investor phenomenon mentioned above means that owners and agents are very reluctant to bring prices down which is exacerbated by the predominance of London in setting the mood for prices, and where demand remains high.

    The resultant high prices are a social menace depriving generations of the opportunity of adulthood and independence. As Larry Elliott of the Guardian recently remarked the aim of allowing pensions to be raided to allow young adults to buy houses, was likely to increase prices rather than lower them. In any case, the decimation of pension pots in recent years means that the application of such a dispensation, would only be relevant for between 10 and 20,000 households.

    One cannot help feeling that the Shwabian housewife will be proved right and that your home is where your heart is, and should be acquired for that purpose alone. The Irish who doubtless fell into this category of folk seem however to have been seduced by British attitudes that have proved to have brought mixed benefits to say the least, when tried at home and abroad.

    It remains to be seen whether the Irish are going to be willing to put their faith in ' bricks and mortar ' or whether they have decided to follow the Schwabian housewife and become people of substance. If they do, they may benefit the economy and help end the recession rather more quickly and successfully for all our sakes.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Tony Bergin Date: Thursday November 22, 2012 @10:11AM

    Working in the Dublin housing market as I do every day, I see and hear a lot of anecdotal and often seemingly contradictory ‘evidence’ about house prices. Thankfully, there are a diverse number of firms out there who take the time (and expense) to produce detailed market reports on various aspects of the market for us. I’ve quoted those sources where relevant and my thanks to them, but the opinions are my own and are merely opinions, not statements of fact. Having said that, I hope this housing market summary helps to clarify the issues in what is a volatile market indeed.

    House price fluctuations:- If we cannot get consensus on what has happened to house prices over the past 1-3 months, then it is folly indeed to even think about predicting where they will be in in 2013. The CSO reported that property prices (Aug 2012) were down in Dublin (-0.5% on July) but up across the rest of the country (0.2% up on July). Daft.ie’s report issued 1st Oct agreed with the Dublin fall (-0.5% in Q3 over Q2), but argued that prices are down by 4.5% in the rest of the country. The CSO also records prices rising in May (first in five years), fell in June and rose in July. Some of those figures were used to try talk up the market, it seems that the market wasn’t listening however. Probably the kindest thing we can say is that the market is stuttering, but at least not in free fall as it has been since 2007. NB: The new PSRA Property Price Register is bringing a new solidity to our pricing database, and will be pretty much up to date.

    Value for money? Interestingly, The Economist (Aug 2012) believes that “Irish residential property prices are undervalued”. Basing their figures on well-established ratios between house prices, rents and incomes, TE believes we are low by 5%. In addition, this international survey showed Irish prices had dropped by significantly more than any other country surveyed. On 2007-2011 figures: - Ireland is down 50%, other examples: - Germany: +7%, Britain: -7%, US: -28%, Belgium: +13%, Sweden: +6%, Italy: - 9.5%. Spain was third from bottom at -22%, less than half our figure.

    Vacancy rates: More worrying is that a number of indicators CSO/AIRO/Goodbody show a potential shortage of housing in the Dublin/Leinster region. As there is an accepted base unemployment rate of 4-4.5%, so there is a base housing vacancy rate at 6-6.5% (excluding holiday homes). All of the Dublin County Council areas reported vacancies under10%, with SDCC, Fingal and DLR all hovering between 5 and 7%. The commuter belt counties of Kildare, Meath and Wicklow all show around 8% vacancy.

    In the pipeline: Latest CIF figures (Aug 2012) show new unit starts at a little over 1200 Jan-Apr this year, down 31% on 2011, same period. House completions Jan-May 2012 were 3283, down 26% on 2011 same period. In all, the CIF expect c. 8000 houses to be built this year, down around 24%. On top of that It is likely that 80%+ of those will be single units built for a known buyer. As further evidence of low stock, Daft.ie tell us that the number of houses on the market for sale last month was down 30% compared to same period 2011. Of course we can expect some properties now rented to go for sale when mortgages are more freely available and consumer sentiment is more positive. That will help ease upward price pressure and will help to maintain the rental property to tenants’ ratio too. But with a 2 year ‘planning permission to collecting the key lead time’, we can still expect some turmoil when the tide turns. There has been a fear that NAMA will put a lot of stock onto the market and depress it further, I’m not sure the figures bear that out. NAMA (according to NAMAWineLake) has 10,000 homes countrywide; 8000 apartments and 2,000 houses. As buyer sentiment is against buying apartments, 2,000 houses scattered from Inisheer to Inishbofin is not going to make a significant difference. (NB: I’m waiting on firm figures for this). The banks are holding a lot of properties too however (I don’t have figures), they will go some way to lessening the shortage.

    Mortgages: A glimmer of hope from the IBF/PWC Q2 report – the number of mortgages issued to first time buyers (FTB’s) and mover-purchasers rose in Q2/2012 year-on-year. That was the first such rise since Q1 2006. As you might expect though, the value of those mortgages issued was nonetheless down on 2011, given that house prices had fallen by c. 13% in that period. That volume rise is presumably centred on the interest tax relief for FTB’s which was increased in the last budget, but is scheduled to end this year. As a stimulus to the market, it did not produce the momentum that sellers and agents hoped for and it is conceivable that the Minister may re-instate that for one more year in Budget 2013. NB:- FTB’s were responsible for a whopping 50%+ of Q2 mortgages and M-P’s 34%.

    The consumer:- If all that isn’t muddy enough, UCD Smurfit School and the MII survey Q2/2012 estimates that consumer spending will be down 2% by close of 2012. They also had really interesting data on: - Personal savings continue to rise. Total household credit down 30% by Mar 2012. Credit card debt down 5.4% June 2012 over June 201. Retail sales down 1% in Q2.

    Well, if austerity was the plan, it’s working a dream. The consumer market makes up 65% of GNP and we are just not confident enough to buy that new washing machine or smart TV, or buy a house. Hence the economy and unemployment languishes and house prices slide around the bottom of the pond. As I write, the Central Bank is forecasting less than previously forecast growth for 2012, a higher unemployment rate and is recommending to the Government that they ramp the austerity program to shorten the period of pain. If that’s not enough anguish, they are also stressing the need for cuts in both private and public sector pay in order to enhance our competitiveness. The CB warns that it could take 20 years for property prices to recover and that transaction volumes are a mere 20% of what they should be.

    Thus far, I’m the Bad News Bear. House prices are stumbling, Ireland has suffered by far the greatest international house price crash, the stock of houses is low for the few buyers out there, mortgages are hard to come by and consumer spending and confidence is falling. Based on Property Price Register figures, Dermot O’Leary of Goodbody says that prices in Dublin increased by 45% first 9 months of this year over last (4774 properties V 3295). If that seems at variance with the above mortgage figures, it’s because 50% of those transactions were in cash.

    A prediction for 2013? Bring an umbrella.

    On the other hand:

    The Private Rental Market continues to perform well, viewed from the property owners’ perspective at least. Daft.ie tells us that rents increased marginally in Dublin for Q2 2012 over Q2 2011, down 0.2% in west Dublin, but up in all other areas with Dublin city faring best, up by 1.8%. The volume of properties available to let was 12% less than a year earlier and that is continuing a 3 year trend. Yields have increased, benefitting from low interest rates and averaging 5.5%. Two DIT authors, speaking on Housing Market Reform also tried to put some flesh on the bones of what evidence we have of a partial shift in sentiment from home ownership to lifetime renting. They argue the case for greater involvement by the State in regulating the rented property sector as it decreases its tradition support for home ownership. Investors (local and foreign) are ahead of that trend and are buying properties in large blocks, quite often from banks at low prices and therefore excellent yields. These companies will likely bring a corporate approach to the rental market and we hope our planners and legislators will keep pace. It does seem that this crash has shaken the foundations of the certainty of bricks and mortar in the Irish psyche. Of all of those who have emigrated, quite a percentage own property here which they now view as a liability and really need the rental market to stay strong. A lot of single people bought apartments in the boom times to ‘get on the housing ladder’. They are now couples in heavy negative equity and with a family on the way. It is hard to see any other option for them but to let their apartments and rent a 3 or 4-bed for the foreseeable. Quite often, that negative equity is the anchor that is keeping them in Ireland. The opposing demographic here is the couple breaking up. Again with negative equity a feature for many, it is not conceivable to sell and divide the proceeds to start afresh. In most cases, one partner moves out and rents as s/he can afford, paying rent on top of mortgage. Another negative here is the small investor who bought at the top and whose rental income is barely covering the interest-only mortgage payments. Those investors are unable to put away the 10% of rent needed to refurbish when the time comes. That is a downward spiral with obvious consequences. For all of the above reasons, the rental market looks solid.

    For the rest of the market however, nobody is predicting an upturn and no-one is foreseeing the catalyst that will herald change. There is a pent-up demand there though and ironically the banks have the key to it – if they were to approve more mortgages, the demand (and therefore the prices) would rise. And the stock they have written down so much would start to glisten a little more brightly…

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Martin Date: Tuesday November 27, 2012 @08:26PM

    A really well thought out response.
    I have long been of the view that the danger to housing stocks in urban areas will manifest itself when the economy turns.

    We have little stock in new housing and what is there is below standard.
    The other problem with housing stock is the notion that idle estates exist in large conurbation areas.

    That is simply not true and with the project planning cycle of about 2 years we will see a daft (pardon the pun) situation presenting itself where we have a housing shortage.

    The key of course is the banks willingness to lend.

    Consider this, a bank mortgage book with 17% in difficulty and with 40% in negative equity looks like heading towards insolvency.
    If on the other hand the bank starts to lend and add to its mortgage book, loans that are sustainable with asset values rising then its overall performance improves.

    I have no doubt that banks are looking at their mortgage book and analysing how to minimise losses and reduce overall risk.
    As a consequence it's looks like opening the purse strings may be the way forward.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Tom Sweeny Date: Thursday November 22, 2012 @05:15PM

    A lot of rambling comments thus far. All just individual opinions, no one can predict whats going to happen. However, as a cash investor there is value out there if you know what you're doing and have a long term strategy. When there's blood on the street .... etc.

    Thanks for the data Daft, shall plug it in!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Fintan Reilly Date: Friday November 23, 2012 @01:21PM

    The appalling destruction of Irish-based wealth by panicking Irish banks after 2008 will be the most shocking story to come out of the whole Celtic Tiger debacle.

    There is no doubt that a lot of loans were made based on junk but just the same following the crash the same idiots who made the stupid loans went on to sell off perfectly sound assets like those of the O'Donnells just to restore their cash balances. Assets in the UK and overseas that within a mere matter of months had regained their values were sold off at great loss.

    The only ones to have benefited as sound assets were flogged to overseas buyers in a massive firesale have been receivers and other agents whose profligacy and ineptitude in administering sound property portfolios that had been carefully amassed over decades would make you weep.

    I have personal experience of the ham-fisted stupidity of Bank of Ireland and other financial institutions in the years after the crash and how if they hadn't panicked they could easily have recouped indeed more than recouped their original loans.

    It is nothing short of scandalous what the banks and receivers have done and are still continuing to do.

    They are destroying value while still racking up massive fees, salaries and bonuses

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Nostramartus Date: Friday November 30, 2012 @11:48PM

    Lorcan's putting a huge bet on the " DOODS " , as one myself I can tell you I live in a building in a city centre with only 2 other apartments. If one of those long term tenents moves out I'll be moving to a house and buying a car in a rural area. I moved from a building with 8 apartments because of the standard of tenant, I can't see any professional living in a block of 200 apartments in Dublin where every night is party night. Right now under my window a dozen teenagers and twentysomethings are having a running battle with each other while drinking cans.

    The reality is this isn't the 1950's, there has been huge social change that doesn't support longterm apartment living as the next generation of " DOODS" are emigrating.

    The rent allowance scheme is the only thing keeping slum landlords in business, no one is going to live in a slum in Dublin when they can emigrate.

    Yet again the latest figures show weakness in the market as it barely registers a pulse before falling again.

    Government policy in the future will be to house single mothers and families in the suburbs while single unemployed construction workers wait on housing lists in flat land and apartments. Most of those paying tax are supporting cutting benefits which will only clone failed societies in America and england ( London riots).

    To simplify flatlands future you should watch either " the raid " or " Dredd 3D", both the same story but the raid is in korean. You'll see a lot more facts than in the comments here, It's difficult to believe there is anyone left predicting a soft landing or meaningful recovery based on 100,000 people employed in multinationals.

    I don't see the point in quoting endless stats on a collapsed market while the rental market's core demographic is emigrating in the thousands leaving myself and a few others as the group all landlords should be chasing. The attitude of the only landlord on the site crystalizes the future of the rental market, ultimately only a tiny number of landlords will survive, the vacuum will be filled with owner occupiers.

    The impact of Nama properties depends on the price, I predicted back in 2005 a number of relatively new apartment buildings would have to be demolished they were so poorly built, this will continue in the future as slums and shoeboxes are knocked in good locations and replaced with well planned larger but fewer apartments that contain all ammenities for modern living as standard. Bedsits were the first casulaties of the standards war.

    This means the era of the " accidental landlord" is over and only tailor made solutions to city living will survive.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: pinkolcj Date: Monday December 3, 2012 @08:48PM

    We would do well to recognise the limitations,as much as the value of the Daft Rental Report ...it is as it states a snapshot, of a market where no two products or customers are in fact the same, or directly comparable.
    Demand for penthouses in D4, or corporate lettings is scarcely related to market demand for bedsits in Bray. Local supply, quality and prices/rents fluctuate in response to multiple determinants. It would seem inevitable that landlords advertise in the hope of securing the highest possible rent and redavertise at a slightly lower one if they fail to let the property. Behaviour could thus tilt the index to reflect desired rents moreso than actual rents. We need tha PRTB to make available its data to get a clearer picture of average rents being paid. The private rented sector has been the fastest growth sector in the Irish economy for years and incoming BTL investors help fuel that.
    Daft averages are theoretical, asking prices...They suggest rents fell nationally by 25% which I dispute. I would argue that a decline in corporate lettings and an excess of rural rental stock over demand account for much of the fall in asking rents The raw data suggests a majority of tenants would have benefited from rent reductions when in many parts of Dublin rents did not fall or fall significantly since the peak.
    The Daft Rental and Sales Reports are valuable and offer insights but it ought be obvious landlords are price-setters and tenants are price takers.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Pat Smith Date: Wednesday December 5, 2012 @12:34PM

    This is the biggest Elephant in the room.
    Corrupt/Criminal banks are torturing people on all levels, on a daily basis with the full support of our bought out government.
    Both the government and these "banks" are fully aware of this torture that they are inflicting on these innocent people.
    Yet their biggest offenders are being protected, funded and are given a full media pardon as they gloat from the comfort their palatial homes.

    These "banks" are fully owned/funded by the taxpayer, yet they do not provide products and services for the taxpayer, only farcical, patronizing "we are open for business" infomercials in the media and greedy fees and interest hikes

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Derry Scully - Bruce Shaw Date: Thursday December 6, 2012 @03:47PM

    Can I be a forecaster too - it seems like fun.

    I think based on available data that indicates a substantial deepening of the 'recession that has no end', that 'negative' growth of 0.3 per cent is a tad optimistic. Realistically, with ever increasing bank losses being uncovered on an almost daily basis and the correlative widening of austerity measures across the Eurozone. I believe that 2013 will see an end to the world as we know it and that the Eurozone will spin off at the speed of light into a great big black hole never to be seen again. Then again this may not happen and further revisions to this scenario may have to be calculated.The Eurozone may only hit a granite wall, with the force of a high speed train and explode

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Tony Burns Date: Wednesday December 19, 2012 @01:40PM

    To date, nothing has been done on any scale for householders with mortgage repayment problems, who in the vast majority of cases, were unwitting participants in a ponzi scheme orchestrated by greedy developers. bankers and their camp followers. Instead of putting these mortage holders through hell and messing with personal bankruptcy schemes, why cannot the Government institute a Nama Lite and sort out the mortgate problem at a single stoke? The cost might be about €10 bn (already provided for in the balance sheets of taxpayer-owned banks) but many tens of thousands of households would benefit. In one step, the country’s citizens could be free of this crushing debt (which is going to have to be written down in any event) and some semblance of confidence restored.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Jim Murray Date: Thursday December 13, 2012 @12:03PM

    The bank guarantee was a huge mistake. By guaranteeing the bondholders debt the government placed the people of this country into a financial straight jacket. And for the government to say that we had no other option is a lie. Iceland let their banks collapse and set up a good bank and they are now enjoying economic growth. Now that we have made the guarantee there is very little room to man oeuvre. All this was done to save the European financial system and not just Ireland's. People should take to the streets and demand that Europe does more to relieve the debt burden on the Irish people. However the current budget adjustment has nothing to do with the bailout We are spending more than we are getting in and again this is due to poor policy of the previous FF administration. For example making wage agreements with the unions in return for lower taxes destroyed our tax base similarly over reliance on taxes from property as a result of those lower taxes led to the complete collapse of our tax base. Fianna Fails populist policy's and the fact that it was in power for 70 years since the states foundation and all the corruption that went with that led to the near collapse of this state. Yet it amazes me after all this FF still emerge in the recent polls as a powerful force in Irish politics SHAME ON US' This country cannot afford to pay the promissory note over a ten year period but we could do it over 40 years and I believe Europe know this if this is the case then we are over the worst of the austerity with small adjustments over the next two years but we all need to let the politicians know that this is our bottom line

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: John Date: Wednesday January 2, 2013 @01:16PM

    What a load of nonsense that the res tenancy act 2004 is heavily weighted toward the Landlord, its completely wieghted toward the tenant, have you eber tried removing a tenant that does not pay the rent using the act. Many tenants use the act to stay on for long periods without paying rent as they know it will be 6 months plus before the PRTB will get around to hearing a case. Sometimes I wonder do people like you Lorcan REALISE that rented accomodation is an assett that has to be paid for! Its not FREE or provided by the state, but there again you are a lecturer and would not understand the principle people that provide this accomodation take a risk with their hard earned money and are expected to be paid and rewarded for taking the risk.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2012

    Posted By: Paul Date: Saturday January 5, 2013 @08:08AM

    Much of the article may be true and informative but I completely disagree with the statement that the RTA is "heavily biased towards supporting the landlord".

    Agreeing with "John" above, the fact is - and it IS fact, that any tenant that wants can "have a go" by taking a case or making an allegation against a landlord - or ignore the terms and obligations of their tenancy knowing that it will likely take at least 6 months for the PRTB to get around to hearing a case.

    It's also complete rubbish that landlords are somehow to be held accountable for their tenants' anti-social behaviour. As a Landlord, it really should not be my problem if a tenant misbehaves - I'm not their babysitter! Why should tenants be treated any differently than anyone else for causing a disturbance? Normal rule of law should apply.

    If anything the RTA needs to be revised to make troublesome tenants more accountable...

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