Housing Market on hold while waiting for an economic turn-around

Dr. Charles J. Larkin, Research Associate, Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin

17th Nov 2009

Dr Charles J. Larkin, Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin, commenting on the latest Daft research on the Irish property market.

The world economy - and in particular the OECD grouping of 30 economically advanced nations - has undergone the most severe recession since World War 2. Among that club, Ireland has suffered the most acute economic contraction of all: GNP has fallen 13.6% from peak - or by more than 20% if foreign-owned export-orientated sectors are excluded. This has taken its toll on jobs, with unemployment rising to 12.6% in October and expected to reach 14% within months.

There are many origins of Ireland's crisis but the primary cause is macroeconomic imbalances, in particular in housing. The spectacular boom and bust of the housing market has seen investment in housing fall by more than half and house prices are falling rapidly. At the same time, household face falling disposable incomes, with unemployment, increased tax burdens and negative wealth effects arising from falling house prices. The government has had to adjust also, with reduced public services and public sector pay. Its priority now is servicing national debt, which is rising rapidly due to deficits of almost 13% this year and next. Ireland faces economic déjà vu, with a fiscal vista reminiscent of 1978/1979.

The OECD's recent review of the Irish economy indicated that the decline has begun to bottom out. This heartening conclusion does not imply a return to higher incomes, reduced unemployment or increased property prices. Ireland's membership of the Eurozone means Irish borrower enjoy historically low interest rates, but also that unilateral currency devaluation is not an option. International competitiveness can only be regained through general reduction of price levels. Vital elements of this process will be wage reductions in the non-traded sector and reductions in rents.

The third quarter Daft.ie Rental Report reveals significant reduction in rents across the country, with an average national reduction of 18.4% over the 12 months to October 2009. Average monthly rent is now €775. Reductions in urban areas have been quite marked. In Dublin, rents have fallen consistently with an average reduction across all sections of the city of 24.5% from peak and 20.7% from the fourth quarter 2008. Rents in the capital are now lower than in the first quarter of 2000. The most acute reductions were in Dublin's City Centre, where rents have fallen 26.1% from peak and 21.3% from the fourth quarter 2008, returning an average of €924 per month. It is now common practice to tell the story of the Celtic Tiger in two stages: the first of export-led growth, the seond of an easy-credit fuelled property/consumption bubble. Rents are now back to the levels of the export-led growth phase.

While Dublin's rents have fallen most, rents in other cities have also been significantly reduced in the last 18 months. On average, rents in the cities outside Dublin have fallen 19.5% from peak. The only exception to the ongoing falls is Galway City, where rents appear to be levelling off with a small quarterly increase of 0.4%. In total, rents there have fallen from peak values by just 15.6%, compared to larger figures in Cork (21.5%), Limerick (21.8%) and Waterford (19%). Elsewhere around the country, rents continue to fall but generally at a slower pace. Rents in Connacht (16.6% from peak) and Ulster (18.4%) have fallen by significantly less than those in Dublin Commuter Counties (24.3%), or Munster (21.4%).

These statistics reflect dramatic shifts in Irelandis demographic patterns. Net outward migration has begun, with 65,100 people leaving the country from April 2008 to April 2009. Of these, 30,100 were nationals of recent accession countries (69.4% male) and 18,400 Irish nationals (62.5% male). This represents a significant change. Net migration has not been negative since 1996. Peak inward migration was in 2006 at 71,800 persons, coinciding with the peak of the Irish property market. The peak of the rental market was in February 2008. This change in migration may pose challenges to the rental market over the medium term. The rapid increase in birth rate (at 74,500, births for April 2008 to 2009 were the highest in the State's history) may result in new sources of demand as households become first-time buyers, trade up or withdraw rental rooms from the market.

Historically, property crises coupled with financial crises produce sharp and lasting falls from peak value. In Ireland's case, economic recovery will depend upon export competitiveness. Addressing macroeconomic imbalances in the property market will be an important part of this process. This quarter's data indicate that a correction is afoot that will bring about such a real devaluation. The key issue is that of time. Households, already saving heavily, are in the process of adjusting to what Nobel Prize winning economist Edward Phelps refers to the "new normal" of lower growth and higher unemployment over the medium term. Adjustments will take time and typically overshoot before a new equilibrium is established. This may lead to fluctuations in the short-term, but long-term recovery in the housing sector cannot occur without the easing of credit markets and increases in real income.


HIGHLIGHTS:

Rental Index
Rental Index

Stock and flow of properties
Stock and Flow of Rental Properties


SNAPSHOT:

Snapshot of Rents Nationwide
Snapshot of Rents Nationwide

Discuss This Article

  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @08:09AM

    I would be very interested to hear the author's views on yields (roughly annual rent divided property value). Mr Lenihan is claimed to have stated in the context of the NAMA legislation that we are close to the bottom of the market because yields are close to record highs.

    Notwithstanding that the NAMA assets will be far more than residential property, can the author confirm that Mr Lenihan is using faulty logic. To illustrate, if annual rent is 5k and the property is worth 100k then the yield is 5%. If property drops by say 40% and is now worth 60k and rents by 24% to 3.8k then the yield will rise to 6.33%. Given that the bank is only offering 1% on deposits we should all invest in property because it returns 6.33%, right? Not if rents are going to fall further because of government cuts in rent allowance, rising unemployment, excess supply of property, reduced wages. And if rents drop then the yield will drop, and contrary to Mr Lenihan's assertion a further cycle of property value falls could be on the cards.

    Any comments?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @08:23AM

    Very interesting report but are there statistics available on the following:

    Voids - ie how many months on average in a year is a rented property empty and not generating income.
    Supply - what % of properties available for rent remain empty and non-income producing.

    Would also be interested if there were any comments on the small fall in rents (24%) compared with 62% (?) drop in mortgage costs (this is my recollection of a report on CPI published last week).

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Brian Date: Sunday December 20, 2009 @08:43PM

    All economics eventually revert to what it costs - periods of gain -high to low, periods of loss -high to low - and the cost of money, and the risk - all play a part.

    All or most of rental properties are not now economically viable. The interest rates may be historically low - but the periods of vacancies (empty properties), the better standards and service required by tenants (nothing is make do anymore - something breaks and you replace it immediately or the tenant is gone), the property taxes, the registration fees to prtb, the high costs of rental property insurances, the reduction of mortage interest relief (now 75% in lieu of 100%), the servicing charges to management companies (now equivalent to 150% per annum of the value of a months rent receivable) - all means people rapidly getting out of renting properties (except developers who currently have little other option for the next 2-3 years). It is not sustainable so landlords will be seriously disposing of properties unless returns improve. In the longer term lettings will only be on an economic return basis including taking account of risk returns. Those waiting for further dramatic reductions in house prices may have to rent meanwhile. I think we will see this all panning out in say 2 years time with rents on the increase again. Traditionally Ireland has had a high owner occupier level compared to the rest of Europe. Will this continue or will renting at economic returns be the future.

    Any views on my view ?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @08:31AM

    If the average rent has fallen from 1000 to 775 isn't that an average fall of 22.5%, not 18%?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @08:35AM

    If statistics are based on asking prices, what account should be given for negotiations between parties which might lead to the actual price signficantly different?

    If you produced statistics on the asking prices of property for sale then people would build a fair degree of scepticism into the results because we all know actual prices can be significantly different.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @10:11AM

    Spot on. My own experience as a landlord is that the asking price is pretty much irrelevant. All the asking price determines is the number of inquiries from prospective tenants - none are even thinking of offering the advertised rent. Negotiation begins anywhere from 15% off the asking price, right up to almost one-third. The rent registered with the PRTB is where analysis should begin.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Friday November 20, 2009 @11:48AM

    Your point about using the PRTB is spot on.

    The report's authors might assert that if you're comparing asking rents now with asking rents a year ago, then you are comparing apples with apples and the trend is an accurate reflection of what is happening to rental values.

    My own experience is that, because of the recession (phoney Depression as far as I am concerned), the overhang of supply and collapse in property values, there is far more effective haggling going on and also the asking prices (though reduced) are a remnant of the good times. To me, and of course this will be anecdotal and not to be taken as gospel, the actual prices now have a greater % reduction from asking prices than a year ago and therefore this report is not comparing apples with apples.

    In future DAFT might consider liaising with the PRTB about obtaining actual price data (which if not tied to a specific address or individual would not offend the Data Protection Act).

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Brian Date: Sunday December 20, 2009 @08:48PM

    It depends on the demand / interest for the property. If 2 or more people are interested and want to take it, discounting will generally not arise in response to an advertised reasonable rent.

    I reckon discounting is only arising in maximum 20% of properties let (where advertised at sensible rates v the present climate).

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @08:39AM

    The rent-a-room income trends on page 7 look unrealistic with double digit falls in a quarter? And what does "vacancy" mean (eg Dublin City Centre "vacancy" is 5.0 again page 7).

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Ste - StatusIreland.com Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @10:12AM

    More importantly than the exact costs of houses and rents right now is the trend. There are not many statistics about house prices available but knowledge of asking prices / rent prices offer up just as valuable information. People seem to be holding out for the bottom, but for what reason? Are people seriously considering investing in property again after all that has just happened? There will be no 2nd property boom, for many reasons. The biggest being NAMA which will trickle property onto the market place for the next decade and more ensure that we are always at least never oversupplied.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Kev Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @11:55AM

    Whats interesting as per the Rental Stock Graph is that since Jan 09 there is circa 7,500 properties not being rented at all with a high turnover of properties from people moving for cheaper rent or better properties?

    But like the sales stock, the rental stock has being falling since June, if this continues then now is the best time to buy or move to rent cheaper properties??

    After say 2 years for stocks to get back to normal (15,000 units only being built for next 2 years with a 35,000 requirement giving a total of 40,000 units requirement off whats existing), It's looking good for a pick up in early 2012!! All good for the future....

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Ted Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @04:16PM

    @Timbo: You're right, I think the press release mentioned NAMA. There's a link to it above. Also, the Daft economist has some more thoughts on his blog:
    http://www.ronanlyons.com/2009/11/17/rents-hit-their-lowest-level-in-a-decade/

    Re supply, there is a chart in the report which gives the total stock available to rent. That's not exactly what you were looking for, I think, but close enough. Seems to be at very high levels compared to 2007. Chart doesn't go back beyond that. Doubt there's anything on voids, unless daft have a database of every single property in the country and monitor them over time.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Friday November 20, 2009 @09:16AM

    Thanks for that - you're right there is a discussion about the logic being used by Mr Lenihan and presumably his employees in NAMA as they start to shell out an estimated 60bn including administration and interest costs in the State's name. Record yields (and is a 2.0 - 5.0% yield record?) would normally mean people take their money from their 1% deposit scheme and place it in property thereby driving up demand and consequently prices but if rents continue to come under pressure from falling wages, higher unemployment, pressure on social wellfare benefits including rent allowance, a net fall in population largely due to an estimated 100,000 emigrants this year, an "overhang" of property, competing housing in better economies (eg UK and most of Europe) then yields will drop unless house prices do to.

    Re Voids, in the UK where I used value, I would assume 6 weeks per year void on average to account for the time between departing tenants and getting new tenants in place. Just wondered what the average was in Ireland as it will be an important aspect of any yield calculation.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Anon Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @04:17PM

    Anonymous: where'd you see 1,000? Commentator up above seems to have some certain figures in his mind, as the percentages are not round ones. 1,000 sounds very round to me.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Friday November 20, 2009 @08:57AM

    It's on page 5 of the full report (you can click the link at the top of this page) and it says as a headline "Rents fell just over 18% in the twelve months to October 2009.
    The average rent nationwide has fallen from over 1,000 in 2008 to
    under 775 in October 2009."

    Maybe the two sentences are separate (even though they're the only two sentences in the headline) and the 1000 doesn't refer to October 2008? Maybe it's a peak from last year. I must say that the report is helpful but I think it would have benefitted from some clearer language and better descriptions.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Joseph Date: Tuesday November 17, 2009 @11:29PM

    Having studied the rental market in my own areas of Dublin 3 and 5,rents have fallen well below the rates suggested in the snapshot.

    One beds are rarely making more than 750 euro a month and 2 beds are making 800-850 depending on location and quality of furnishings.

    Renters are becoming fussier (with more choice) and are not afraid to pick out faults and ask for a reduction in the asking price.

    Properties that were 1200 euro a month 18 months ago are now being advertised at 1000euro but landlords are taking 900euro to fill properties that are lying idle for 6-8 months.

    Rent.ie will give you a clearer picture of how long properties are on the market,and their prices are the main reason.

    You might feel an Apt.or house is worth 1000 euro a month but it is only worth what someone is willing to pay.
    Better to have 900 a month for 12 months than nothing but your pride and the smug knowledge that your property is worth 1000 a month.
    Properties that rent quickly are those that are well furnished and realistically priced

    I have also noticed most landlords are ignoring the new legislation on B.E.R certs.We do this at our peril ,because court cases are in the offing.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: The Realist Date: Wednesday November 18, 2009 @09:31AM

    well its about time ! the control of the market has shifted from seller to buyer and landlord to tenant. 2010 will be another tough year for property owners with the pending commencement of the interest rate cycle rise along with an acceleration of the Net outward migration and forced sales due to unemployment and cash flow problems of the overleveraged. advice to potential buyers and tenants...pull or lower your bids !

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Donal Date: Tuesday November 24, 2009 @04:32AM

    People,

    Start reading the OECD reports.
    Read McCarthy reports.
    Stop being so naieve.

    There is currently no floor in sight for rental/property decline.
    We are going to see another 25% fall by Dec 2010.
    Up to 80% in store for 2012.

    The OECD have recommended a variety of measures in their latest report, such as removal of marriage tax benefits, council charges, water charges, removal of mortgage interest relief etc.
    Factor in soon to rise interest rates in Eurozone and credit constriction.

    Result= collapse in rental yield/implosion in property values.

    Defecit of 27Billion this year. Many property clients are in the public sector.
    Public and Social amount to 42billion together.
    Take 50% off that bill, and a coinciding 50% off the property market.

    The more tax the government take, the more your property will fall in value.
    Anyone with a rental property, get out now, while you can!!
    Trust me, you are facing complete ruin in the near future.

    I guarantee, rental yield is going to plummet by early 2011.
    Watch what happens after the Dec 2009 budget then multiply.

    Markets in Dublin and Cork have only fallen by 30%.
    There is easily another 30% to go before 2010, just based on Fiscal Q4 2009,
    People who say that property has reached "the bottom", are deluded.

    There is nothing out there to suggest otherwise (unless the country strikes oil)

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Wednesday November 25, 2009 @06:12PM

    The Irish Independent today reported on a study undertaken by Irish Mortgage Brokers and PropertyWeek.ie which states that residential investment properties would need to fall in value by between 20pc and 56pc to make them a profitable proposition. The report says rents need to double, or values fall radically, to tempt investors back into the market.

    Dublin property prices would need to fall to 256,293 for property investment to make sense. Cork prices would need to fall to 119,324, with Galway prices needing to fall to between 119,324 and 205,296.

    Alternatively, rents would need to rise to 1,785 a month in Dublin, or 1,490 in Galway.

    With a weakening economy (1.1% drop next year according to ESRI/Pre-Budget report - 2.4% drop according to the OECD), 75,000 extra people budgeted to be on the dole, a net decrease in population with over 100,000 emigrating, 4bn taken out of the economy in the forthcoming Budget, haemorrhaging retail sales going up North, rising interest rates, an overhang in supply, a complete lack of competitiveness in our economy, an anaemic international recovery, does anyone really think other than rents will continue to fall and that property is in for a correction closer to the 56% fall predicted by the above report. (though if rents drop by another 25%, property will need to drop by a further 45-80% to make sense to investors).

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Bob Date: Tuesday December 1, 2009 @09:33AM

    Based on Daft reports, the authors of the above messages forecast price falls, with one author seeming to suggest that houses will be almost free next year.

    However, the actual data in the Daft reports merely records what has happened in the past and does not forecast future trends.

    The MyHome survey of housebuyer's attitudes states that 'It is very interesting to note that more people believe prices will either remain static or actually increase than think that prices will fall by more than 10% during the course of the next year'.

    The messages of doom and gloom set out above do not reflect purchaser's attitudes generally.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Monday December 14, 2009 @09:49PM

    House prices are still over-valued in Ireland. The Irish Mortgage brokers were accurate and honest for once when they said that house prices for Dublin on average to equal 250k. I presume that that is what Bob referred to when he was going on about houses for free. How he considers property returning to a longer term average based on economic trends to be free is reminiscent of the "house prices only ever go up" spiel. The new wishful thinking is that house prices are bottoming out.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday December 17, 2009 @05:23PM

    How is the rental index calculated?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Monday December 21, 2009 @09:51AM

    The next time you produce the report, can you not submit a Freedom of Information request to PRTB for rent by property-size (bedrooms) by region (county and for city components). Under Data Protection they won't give you individual properties but you don't need that. Their database is many, many times greater than the very limited set offered on DAFT and most importantly records ACTUAL rents rather than asking (which by the looks of comments on here can easily be 30% off asking prices). DAFT is the natural commercial outlet to produce reports on the sales and rental markets but the reports are so tainted by the lack of ACTUAL prices that they are not even safe guides.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Monday December 21, 2009 @12:36PM

    @Timbo
    I'm not sure how many properties the PRTB have on their database, but it could hardly be much larger than the 20,000 or so Daft's site has at any one time, given that there are not that many tenants in the country and they're only going to move at most once a year and more than likely less frequently than that!

    Presumably, you yourself could submit an FOI request if you wanted, though - provided you have the money to back it up.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Monday December 21, 2009 @05:15PM

    Anonymous, are you kidding? Look at the PRTB website to see its register (gives address and number of beds but not the ACTUAL rental) - Galway has over 15,000 separate tenancies. You'd have to look at each country and region of Dublin to get a total but it is many times the 21k on DAFT. Not all rentals go through DAFT. But that's not really the point - the most important aspect of what is essentially a report into rental prices is the ACTUAL prices paid.

    It's not my report. It's DAFT's. I guess it's good PR for them and consolidates the market leader status they have. A FOI request at what? 600 , must be worth it in order to provide a report on ACTUAL prices.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: PAUL Date: Wednesday December 23, 2009 @11:43AM

    Timbo

    If you knew anything about the PRTB you would realise that they are not able to do the job they are supposed to be doing, never mind compile a quarterly report on rents and rental trends, or even be relied upon to supply accurate information on rents to a third party to compile a report on same!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Tuesday January 5, 2010 @12:13PM

    Well from experience with the PRTB, although they seem to be permanently engaged with other calls and it takes them 1-2 weeks to respond to emails, they do respond and seem competent with it - not impressive, but adequate.

    If you look at their website prtb.ie, you'll see that they already publish a Register which contains addresses and number of bedrooms. It doesn't contain the rental price although that is on their database. To produce a report by county or city area with number of bedrooms and ACTUAL rental price wouldn't take 5 minutes.

    Then we would have accurate uptodate ACTUAL rentals prices by area and no of bedrooms and that would include rentals not offered on DAFT and rolled over rentals where the rent price has changed (there is a requirement to update rents with PRTB but they don't regard that as a new tenancy). If asking prices can be 30% discounted, then unless the discount rate stays constant (which is unlikely - in buoyant markets the landlord should get close to the asking price and in depressed markets there is likely to be better bargaining by the tenant) I wonder if the report has any real authority.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Paul Date: Tuesday January 5, 2010 @05:55PM

    Timbo

    From experience it takes them up to 6 months to respond to general queries, it can take them over 6 months to even begin dispute resolution and a further 6 - 12 months to resolve the dispute. They are also the public sector dept with the highest percentage of sick days vis a vis other public sector bodies and if you have ever received correspondence from them or reviewed their list of registered properties you would also know that they cannot even spell.

    So in summary, if you believe that the PRTB have the competancy or abilty to prepare stats on rent or a more indepth report on rents and rental trends than DAFT then you either;

    (1) Work for the PRTB
    (2) Have never had any meaningfull dealings with them!
    (3) ..are DAFT!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Cool Date: Wednesday December 23, 2009 @04:44PM

    About the actual price... my current experience is interesting.
    Living in a shared property, D6, 4 beds, 2K/month we have actually one bed free.
    Just two visits within 3 weeks.
    Not sure to get someone until... well... not sure to get someone actually... there are so many free beds in Dub.
    So we only paid for this month 1.5K and this will certainly be the case next month... and we are not sure at all for the following one... this put the real price paid 25% less than the official price... how many shared property in the same situation?
    I personnally think the property maket in Ireland is a deep haze today, and that to have a clear picture of the real worth of properties is very tiresome exercise... :-)

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: No1fan Date: Monday December 28, 2009 @09:38AM

    I've been viewing properties in south dublin over last few months of 2009. The estate agents, by in large, are doing an excellent job of talking up the property market- despite this, and their eagerness to achieve high prices- they just aren't shifting the houses until the owner decides to accept the price offered. The actual reduction, from what i've seen can be down 50% on the peak price, and anyone in the market of buying, knows this and expects the same on every property. That's why they're not parting with the cash. Most economists predict worsening economy before it gets better. Less disposable income is less money to pay a mortgage. So until there's a further transparent drop of 20%, the market won't get going again. And such a drop and subsequent pick up in sales will stimulate the economy once more by injecting a fresh wave of optimism along with a certain amount of stamp duty back into the state's balance sheets. And hopefully reality will overtake greed as something we can remember the next 10 years by.
    It's probably good to keep in mind that some wages are expected to return to 2000 levels. House prices will have to follow.
    Good luck to us all on this current economic see-saw.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Sunday January 31, 2010 @07:04PM

    Where are the rental reports for Q4 2009 and Q1 2010?

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