Investment Key to Rental Sector Revival

Michael Taft, Political & Economic Reseacher, UNITE

16th Feb 2010

Michael Taft, Political & Economic Researcher, UNITE, commenting on the latest Daft research on the Irish property market.

The 2009 rental market provides further evidence of an unbalanced, boom-and-bust property market on the slide. National asking-rents fell by 15 percent, consistent with falls in industrial, commercial and retail rents. End of 2009 rents were 12 percent below end of 2002 levels. Stock over-hang, negative equity, plummeting investment - you couldn't write a worse script.

Though numerous commentators are talking up the prospect of 'turning the corner', we may be entering a period of what the IMF has described as a 'statistical recovery but a human recession', something the Government's deflationary policies are clearly engendering. Their fiscally irrelevant cuts in public sector wages and social welfare rates (despite claims, such cuts will have little impact on the Exchequer's deficit) presage a general drive to depress income and growth. January redundancy notifications exceeded the 2009 monthly average. Consumer spending could come under pressure from anticipated ECB interest rate hikes later this year (the domestic banks will beat them to it). Some may be turning the corner; the rest of us are walking a different street.

Falling rents may be welcomed by tenants but this may come at the price of reduced investment and more stock withdrawal (in the last six months of 2009, 20 percent was withdrawn - a result of over-concentration from the buy-to-let and tax-shield sectors). Rising rents - and January 2010 saw a slight increase, focused mostly on inner city Dublin - will be welcomed by landlords and their creditors but hardly by tenants, and certainly not by the enterprise sector which will suffer from displaced spending and upward wage pressures. The interaction of falling incomes, rising interest rates, higher unemployment and emigration could break in any number of directions for the rental market - most of them not good.

We need a ready supply of quality units at affordable rents which nonetheless provide a solid return to maintain investment (yields in 2009 were marginally above 2006 levels but this may come under pressure by next year without rent hikes). We need this to assist labour mobility and provide sustainable land-use. This is all the more the case when dealing with a commodity that is a social need, a special kind of good, and not just another item of consumption or capital.

To analyse the rental market using traditional instruments of supply, demand and return-on-investment can only take us so far. A significant section of the market is being kept afloat by massive public subsidy through rent supplement, the Rental Accommodation Scheme and the prospective social leasing arrangements. The escalating proportion of rent-subsidised tenants (estimated to be between a third and half of all tenancies) is such that traditional demarcations between 'public' and 'private' are no longer illuminating. Supply, demand and ROI are increasingly determined by public policy, not alleged free-acting market agents.

Historically, the private rented sector has been ignored by Governments although recent reforms such as abolishing bedsits are a welcome step. Nonetheless, the sector remains a fragmented, under-capitalised 'cottage' industry, lacking the professionalism and modern synergy with a strong regulatory culture that prevails in other EU countries. Much of this short-coming can be put down to the lack of institutional investors, insufficient regulatory over-sight, limited powers (and resources) for local government, and insufficient public capital.

We require a fundamental overhaul in the rented sector to increase investment, standards and tenant-safeguards while maintaining consistent rent levels and long-term yields. How do we get there from here? In other countries long-term stable institutional investment is attracted through special vehicles such as Real Estate Investment Trusts in the US. Here institutional funds were channelled through buy-to-let which contributed to the fragmented, boom-and-bust rental market. In other countries, rental markets provide life-long living, accommodating a range of demographics from singles, to families with children to pensioner; here, local authorities, shifting from managing housing stock in blocks and estates, are increasingly managing the leasing of a wide variety of private sector units spread out geographically and varying widely in standards; indeed, local authorities have found it difficult to find accommodation that reaches its' standard for tenants.

The public sector will be crucial to achieving such a transformation. Though tax incentives and other subsidies will be essential, large-scale institutional investment will be understandably wary at first. To kick-start this process, new municipal housing authorities or publicly-structured housing associations/cooperatives could be established. This would provide economies of scale, lower input costs per unit, raise management standards and design a market accessible and attractive to all demographics. Such vehicles could attract institutional investment, even by guaranteeing yields over the long-term. To the extent that such bodies would provide for both the public and private markets, traversing a divide that doesn't functionally exist in many sectors, this could reduce the cost to taxpayers.

This transformation would be accompanied by complete financial, rent and yield transparency. There is no reason why data regarding rents paid, yields and available stock should not be freely available to all. The private rented sector is plagued by lack of data which is why Daft provides a considerable public service.

In this new dispensation, the fortunes of the small-scale investor and provider could also flourish. Working from a new base-line of standards, rent levels and yields, the committed investor could inject flexibility into the market in terms of product differentiation, location and provision without disturbing the underlying stability.

As Dr. Nat O'Connor of TASC points out, the idea that middle to high-income people will all become owner occupiers is coming to an end. Hence, the renting demographic will broaden. In short, the future will be renting.

All the more need, then, for a quality-driven market - stable, professional, and profitable. This will no doubt require considerable upfront public investment. But the social and economic returns would be high. And such investment could be a small antidote to the Government's deflationary policies. This would help ensure that any statistical recovery is translated into a human recovery.


HIGHLIGHTS:

Rental Index
Rental Index

Stock and Flow of Properties
Stock and Flow of Rental Properties


SNAPSHOT:

Snapshot of Rents Nationwide
Snapshot of Rents Nationwide

Discuss This Article

  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Jez Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @12:36AM

    Surprised to see Daft giving vent to this type of propaganda. The unions have covered themselves in glory to about the same degreee as the current government has in recent times.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: David Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @12:03PM

    Not surprised to see that there are some people unhappy that rents are on the increase and we appear to have turned a corner. The DAFT report is based on market analysis, I am sure you were quite happy to agree with it and sing its praises when it reported on declining rents and house prices. When it reports that the opposite is now happening you dismiss it as propoganda! Unbelievable but not at all surprising!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Alan Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @07:53AM

    A great report as usual by daft. It looks like we are turning the corner. economic growth and a return to normality is surely not far away.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: A Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @05:58PM

    Did you read the report at all??

    "Though numerous commentators are talking up the prospect of 'turning the corner', we may be entering a period of what the IMF has described as a 'statistical recovery but a human recession', something the Government's deflationary policies are clearly engendering. Their fiscally irrelevant cuts in public sector wages and social welfare rates (despite claims, such cuts will have little impact on the Exchequer's deficit) presage a general drive to depress income and growth. January redundancy notifications exceeded the 2009 monthly average. Consumer spending could come under pressure from anticipated ECB interest rate hikes later this year (the domestic banks will beat them to it). Some may be turning the corner; the rest of us are walking a different street."

    The snippet above might suggest you didn't.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @10:32AM

    Thanks to DAFT for taking the time to compile the latest report. As Mr Taft says there is a remarkable dearth of information in the private sector and DAFT are providing a public service.

    The report is based on asking prices as opposed to settled prices. Settled prices are held by the PRTB but not publicly released because of some notion of breaking Data Protection laws. Therefore the data in the report has that caveat as in a weak market (oversupply, falling prices, falling wages, falling population) you would normally expect harder bargains to be struck by the tenant compared with a strong market (undersupply, rising prices, rising wages, rising population) where the landlord would have the upper hand.

    Mr Taft states "Supply, demand and ROI are increasingly determined by public policy, not alleged free-acting market agents." I agree with this statement though I would include the operation of NAMA under "public policy" - why are all these vacant properties and incomplete estates not on the market at present? Are they waiting for NAMA to fix prices with exchequer (ie "our") money? Thanks to FG Senator Eugene Regan for again appealing to the European Commission seeking transparency and a lessening in risk to public money.

    Also another €3bn of spending needs to come out of our Budget in November 2010 and Mr Cowen has indicated it will not come from public sector wages. Where then will it be found? In reductions to the Rent Allowance? We are also committed to taking €6.5bn from our Budget in 2011-2014 frontloaded towards the early years so that we can come down to running a budget deficit of less than 3% of GDP. Where are these cuts going to fall?

    I myself formed the view that asking prices out the gate at the New Year were on the high side for property for sale on DAFT (I'm a renter looking to buy when things stabilise) and were inconsistent with predictions of further falls in prices. I wouldn't know what to think of a 1% increase in asking prices for rent - for me it represents a view that the market is stabilising in the minds of landlords - the absence of settled prices from PRTB and my own observation that some properties appear to be on the market for some time tells me to treat that cautiously.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Andrew Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @03:26PM

    Yes, asking prices have gone up! thats real, the other real fact is that the number of units available to let has dropped dramatically in the larger urban conurbations. This is fact! We can go on and on about 350,000 units vacant in the state, 80% of these are irrelevant, people forget that supply and demand will out. Good housing units in good locations are becoming scarce. To use a very simple analogy, there are hundreds of thousands of footballers in britain only a few hundred get huge salaries, supply and demand! Its the exact same with housing, loads of it but little of it much use.
    By the way while immigration(outflow) is on the increase many who have left over the last 2 years have begun to trickle home as their visas run out and the realisation that faraway fields are not quite so green. These people have to be housed, their not going to live in outer surburbia miles from everything.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Rob Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @11:33PM

    Andrew, you note that "By the way while immigration(outflow) is on the increase many who have left over the last 2 years have begun to trickle home as their visas run out and the realisation that faraway fields are not quite so green. These people have to be housed, their not going to live in outer surburbia miles from everything". What opportunities have these returnees? If they are not going to receive decent salaries do you expect them to afford "urban rents". The majority of people who left the country were in the construction industry or related/other service industries; unfortunately not too much for them to return to. Referring to your football analogy, I agree with you but to put it into current economic climate sense, those on a good salary will afford the better apartments, those who come back or sadly have lost their jobs will have no option but live in outer suburbia if rents were to rise as I would be surprised if salaries are increasing anytime soon.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: ANDREW Date: Wednesday February 17, 2010 @03:09PM

    These returnees form only a small but growing band of people looking for accomodation in the larger cities, the chances of employment/further education in rural towns are zero, the cost of commuting to and from rural suburbia will be prohibitive, because of our planning debacle of resisting higher densities close to existing services( objectors take a bow) we now have a shortage of quality accomodation where its needed. Shortages mean price increases, supply and demand!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @10:44AM

    Could DAFT clarify the methodology for the table

    "Investor Information: Snapshot of yields across the country"

    The first one Dublin is 4.3% and no change.

    How is the yield of 4.3% calculated?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Ronan L Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @04:37PM

    Yields are calculated by taking the snapshot of properties for sale and for rent in particular geography-bedroom combination, controlling for all measurable attributes (such as house type, bedroom number, etc) and using the industry standard 11-times monthly (asking) rent as a proportion of the (asking) price.

    Averages across bedroom numbers and regions are sample-weighted averages.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @08:55PM

    Ronan,

    Thanks for clarification of the yield %.

    What does the "Change" represent eg change for South Dublin City is 0.2% (the current yield is 3.5%).

    Is the change from December 2009 and was the yield then 3.3%?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Tim Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @11:29AM

    Looking back over the rental index for the past few years which is shown above it would appear to be the norm that rental prices rise in January (compared with December) or that the fall in January is small compared with the trend ie

    Dec/Jan 2010 75.4 to 76.5
    Dec/Jan 2009 89.0 to 88.5
    Dec/Jan 2008 100.6 to 101.7
    Dec/Jan 2007 93.9 to 95.7
    Dec/Jan 2006 87.9 to 87.6

    The latest rise of 1.1 is equal to the rise between Dec 2007 and January 2008.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Ste - StatusIreland.com Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @12:56PM

    "Turning the corner", overly optimistic I would have to say. There may have been a little jump in January but that is hardly a sign of any corner being turned. All areas of the economy would have to be consistent with this and not one other area indicates any sort of turn.
    Rents in Dublin are still not cheap, they are reasonable but not cheap. Considering the enormous overhang of property, the serious recession and unpredictable future of this country I would be doubtful if the prices didn't continue to drop another few percent over the course of the year. There may be a few months in the + and a few months in the - but overall I cannot see 2010 being a year in which rents will rise. Those people living the property "dream" (of which this country seems to have many) may wish it to be the case but the figures are stacked against it.

    Unnatural optimism simply hides fact.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Peter Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @04:09PM

    It would be very interesting to see what Mr Tafts input was to Unites policies when they extorted the large wage increases which drove up the cost of living here and left us in the predicament we are in? Did he propose his present theory then or just take the wage increases and run?
    I dont mean to sound personal but his trade union was both privy to and beneficiaries of, all policy over the last decades , unlike most who had no say in the matter. I dont remember any shouts of "stop the wage increases, increase the taxation"," were going to be uncompetitive",
    No, no such plaintive cries were heard from Mr Taft.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: abc123 Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @05:11PM

    Sorry, but i allways thought the plung in rent prices was due to the interest rate drop... now there on the way up the rents are following??

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Merrion Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @05:28PM

    Fact
    Retail Sector/Financial/Public Sector/Leisure/Mutinational Sector job cuts Umemployment =15-20%
    Immigration rampant +250/300k
    Interest Rates +.5-.75%
    Property Tax 1-1.5% of value of property
    Increase in Income Tax
    NAMA leads to quick fire sales

    Maybe Fact
    Spain/Portugal/Italy are covering up there financial position aka Greece
    US UK have +3% growth in 2010 lead to Mass immigration from Ireland +500k
    The Banks have sold the govermant a PUP in the form of NAMA
    Obama introduces serious tax incentives to repatriate jobs to US


    Fiction
    Recovery in property maket in 2010

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Alan Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @07:16PM

    What we are now witnessing is a reluctance to accept presented data in many of the responses. The bears would appear to be in complete control.

    This is a very strong signal that we are approaching the bottom of the market.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Bob Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @08:27PM

    Nobody is expecting a quick turn in the property market. However, the reduced number of houses available for rent along with increasing costs, will prompt some who have been waiting in the wings to re-enter the market and buy a home.

    While the relatively low rents over the past two years has led some to conclude that it was better to wait until the housing market had cooled before buying, the prospect of higher rents will clearly compel some people to re-think their strategy.

    This is especially the case given that the flow of new properties onto the rental market will not increase in the future. Builders have been constructing little over the past two years and all indications suggest that the output of new homes is unlikely to rise dramatically. Forget the figure of 300,00 empty units unless you want to live where no-one else will go (why else are they empty? duh!).

    Although the prophets of doom will inevitably overstate the case against buying, their views are clearly contrary to the emerging pattern of increased rents. Iit is important that such opinions are not being held merely because it is convenient to do so, especially when such views plainly contradict published data.

    I have been reading this colums for several years and whilst the names of the doom and gloom merchants change, their texts remain the same. It is obvious that these authors didn't believe their own press and have since gone off to buy a home, even though their messages prompted other purchasers not to do so!!

    Personally, as a landlord, I'm thrilled that rents will increase in the future. Please, please, keep on renting so as to pay my bills for me. Thanks !

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: paul Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @10:18PM

    40000 households can't pay there mortgage and rising fast, 2 or 3 more budgets of similar variety as the last savage one, hundreds of thousands of people in negative equity, up to100 thousand people to lose there jobs this year and the chance of sovereign debt in one of four EU countries (with us included) not to mention our bloated wage bill, these are all facts, rents will continue to slip as will property prices, anyone who thinks different is still living in the happy place Celtic tiger land, this is not a recession, it is a depression in this country, maybe some areas will level off rent wise but these will be few and far between....

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Guano Date: Friday February 19, 2010 @02:21PM

    Hi Bob, I am also a landlord but unlike you I remain very bear-ish on both the rental and property market in general. How then do I explain the 1% rise in rents? Well from my own experience, when I advertise a property for rent I increase the asking price by 10% in the full knowledge that the tenant will seek to negotiate a lower price. In the past I did not have to negotiate, I simply asked for a bit more than the going rate and I generally got it, now I am learning a new skill. A changed market leads to changed behaviour and visa versa.

    You would expect a 20% reduction in the volume of property in the market would give the effect of inflating prices. Yet the effect is very weak, why so? because the main support for prices at this point in time is the state, through rental subsides and NAMA. This is a situation that cannot last.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Brian Date: Saturday February 20, 2010 @07:32PM

    Hey BOB, remember this litte nugget of wisdom (NOT) from Q3, 2007. There loads more in other posts, but I'll leave it to other readres to check it out on Daft Reports. Sorry, but you do ask for it!

    "Some buyers will clearly wait to see what happens and will pay increasing monthly rents to landlords in the interim, often for poor quality accommodation, since builders have responded to market changes by constructing fewer homes.

    However, as the pent-up demand for housing increases, buyers will realise, in considerable numbers, that they are only delaying the inevitable and will look to purchase their own homes, especially when the difference between mortgage payments and rents narrows, as is now occurring.

    At that stage (late 2008), prices will jump as a result of the time taken for builders to respond to the market and buyers, fearing that prices will escalate as before, will again make higher offers for the limited housing available, thus further driving the market upwards.

    As current market conditions are purely temporary, those awaiting further price reductions will be disappointed and whilst the situation would be different if housing supply had remained constant or if immigration had reduced, neither occurred, on which basis, the supply and demand equation still endorses the likelihood of higher prices."

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Alex Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @09:05PM

    It could be data manipulation!

    If DAFT has less offers in Q4 it could be because DAFT is loosing its market share! :)
    or DAFT is too expensive for some of the customers to place an advertisement on it!

    Average rent is higher because people are looking for less expensive accommodation so there are more expensive offers available.

    I don't know methodology but I don't trust so called "experts" who has pumped bubble and now are interested in starting that process again !

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Niall Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @09:58PM

    It is clear from the report that the only reasons rents are not continuing to fall is the continued huge subsidy from the DSFA to private landlords. Over 50% of private tenants receive support from the State with their rents and if the DSFA decides to cut support by say a further 15-20 landlords will have no choice but to follw suit. For example Current rents for a 3 bed house around the country are as follows per the Report

    Area Rent DSFA Support (family with 2 children)

    Ulster €593 €606 - €684

    Connacht €639 €684 (Sligo), €780 (Mayo &Roscommon), €806 Galway

    Munster €679 €767 (Cork) €731 (Kerry) 684, THE REST

    Dublin
    Commuter €795 €1,100 Kildare & Wicklow
    Belt

    West Leinster €661 €684 Biffoland, Longford, Laois & Westmeath

    DN 15 €1,042
    DN 22 € 961 €1,100
    DN 10 € 875
    Dn 24 € 1,007


    Time to squeeze the Kulaks and save some Government money!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Wednesday February 17, 2010 @03:16PM

    Niall,

    That's very interesting (by the way, your post came out funny on my browser, Firefox, with the euro sign shown as € ). Where did you get the DSFA figure eg for Ulster €606 - €684?

    If correct, does that mean that the DSFA are paying more in Rent Allowance than the private landlords are charging?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: The Speculator Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @10:26PM

    have a look at the unemplyement rate;

    http://www.statusireland.com/statistics/most-popular/31/Seasonally-Adjusted-Standarised-Unemployment-Rates-SUR.html


    weren't they mouthing off on the radio that its showing signs of stabilisation? yet this january they had a worse january than the 2009 monthly average?

    Nope, i wont be taking this lads report seriously, but, dont get me wrong, i'd love to see the recovery. It'll be obvious when theres a stabilisation/improvement, when im convinced myself i'll consider it. Wheter that be in 2010, or 2020, japan lost a decade, absolutely no reason why we cant.

    I wont be catching the falling knife, and im not willing to risk buying at "possibly the bottom"

    Thats my 2 cents anywho.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Brendan Date: Wednesday February 17, 2010 @05:57PM

    Its all about location, who wants to rent in the many back waters of small towns in Ireland. If you want to rent a nice place central in any large Irish town, then you have to pay the amount being asked. As the sayinig goes, Location, Location, Location, thats what its all about ! Its good to see rents go up slightly. A norm is returning to renting in Ireland.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Thursday February 18, 2010 @11:06AM

    The Irish Times ran a feature today backing up a hardening in prices identified in the DAFT report. To summarise it, central areas of the capital are indeed seeing some increases and landlords are being picky and estate agents indifferent though other locations seem to be continuing to fall.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2010/0218/1224264699969.html?via=mr

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday February 18, 2010 @05:09PM

    Yes, I read the article today. anywhere within 8 miles of Dublin city centre is rising, im am trying to rent a nice 2 bed house with a garden within that distance and finding it impossible as the number of people viewing are on the increase and i have been outbid several times on the asking price this is a fact in the Dublin area near the centre not sure of rest of the country just my experience.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Andrew Date: Friday February 19, 2010 @12:16PM

    Yes it is the same in Cork city center, I have renewed 3 leases with existing tenants, 1 remained the same but 2 rents rose. I quized the tenants, they said they had looked at alternatives but found it hard to find anything better in the location so did not want to risk losing what they had, this is fact, they cannot afford to move to the "cheaper "suburbs, Location and quality are begining to show there true value at last, something that was forgotten about over the last few years.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Zhang Date: Friday February 19, 2010 @02:45PM

    In china the government pays thousands of people to write pro government comments on the internet. In poor old Ireland it is left to Estate Agents, with nothing else to do, to try and talk up the market.

    A 1% rise in ASKING prices - a summer does not make.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Niall Date: Friday February 19, 2010 @09:38PM

    In relation to the above I would also refer our landlord friends to a Dαil question asked by the ever excellent Ms. Burton on 3rd Feb., ref 5546/10

    To ask the Minister for Social and Family Affairs

    To ask the Minister for Social and Family Affairs her views on further reductions to the rent allowance; the amount of money that is allocated for the rent allowance in 2010; if she will provide a breakdown of spending on the rental allowance by Dublin postal district for 2007, 2008 and 2009; and if she will make a statement on the matter.

    - Joan Burton.

    Minister for Social and Family Affairs (Mary Hanafin T.D.)

    The purpose of the rent supplement scheme is to provide short-term support to eligible people living in private rented accommodation whose means are insufficient to meet their accommodation costs and who do not have accommodation available to them from any other source.

    Rent supplements are subject to a limit on the amount of rent that an applicant for rent supplement may incur. Rent limits are set at levels that enable different types of eligible households to secure and retain basic suitable rented accommodation, having regard to different rental market conditions that prevail in various parts of the State. The objective is to ensure that rent supplement is not paid in respect of overly expensive accommodation having regard to the size of the household and market conditions.



    Setting or retaining maximum rent limits at a higher level than are justified by the open market can have a distorting effect on the rental market, leading to a more general rise in rent levels and in landlord income. This in turn may worsen the affordability of rental accommodation unnecessarily, with particular negative impact for those tenants on lower incomes.

    A review of maximum rent supplement levels is in process and will be completed by 31st of March 2010. Preliminary findings of this review confirm that rent levels have dropped significantly and continuously since their peak in 2007 giving further scope for reductions for rent limits.

    The p rovisional outturn for 2010 Rent Supplement is €509m, an overall year on year increase of 19m. This reflects the expected increase in rent supplement applicants in payment in 2010.

    In the time available it is not possible to provide statistical informatio n requested.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Kevin Date: Sunday February 21, 2010 @03:20PM

    Is this the same "excellent" Miss Burton, Labour td, whoose party is directly funded by the trade unions, the same unions who have publicly stated that their present strike actions are "to bring down the government" ( i never remember being given a chance to vote for any of these people who have vowed to bring down the elected government).
    Miss Burton was strangely quiet when her financial backers demanded higher and higher wages through benchmarking, Miss Burton is employed by us to look after all our interests as a TD, her silence then is as deafening as her ranting now.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: NO1FAN Date: Friday February 19, 2010 @09:59PM

    thankfully, a refreshingly honest appraisal of our current situation. i can understand the governments approach of saying that we're on the road to recovery, to both boost consumer confidence and justify the cuts in public sector pay, which in turn reduced their disposable income thereby reducing their spending and in turn reducing the tax take from retail sector, along of course, with a reduction in the tax take from said workers.

    the govt is merely using the media to try and govern the country, and one economist, mc carthy, to do all its finances, god knows why we need so many ministers!!

    if any one of us check with any contact we have in any other part of europe, we'll be quickly told that we ain't seen the half of it yet. i know it's a gloomy picture i'm painting, but we've already got a certain amount of home owners in dire straits, why encourage the young first time buyers to start yet another pseudo-boom by panicking them into buying.

    at the end of the day, no matter how bad things get, and no matter what the govt promises about the current state of the economy, if you gain, they'll tax you, if you lose more than you have, you're on your own. the govt won't suffer, lose power temporarily perhaps, but still get nice juicy pensions while they're in limbo.

    i do agree that the available number of rental properties will continue to lower, as the investors are not taking on new properties, and many are, doing their best to offload properties while they still have a value.

    having said all thet, i really don't have a solution to this current situation. i think prices have another 25% to drop before they bottom out. sales will return, but at a sensible level, where the return does not spark a wave of increases which has us in the position we're all in. the best thing we can come away with from this is that hopefully we've learnt from it and we'll become a nation of savvy consumers.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: andrew Date: Sunday February 21, 2010 @02:32PM

    Prices in some areas will drop by even more than 25%, in outer suburbia, satellite towns and areas with large tracts of local authority/social housing and a high proportion of private rentals subsidised by rent allowance. It would be lunacy to buy there, those who can will exit these locations, allready its getting harder and harder to either rent or buy in good quality locations, this is just a fact of life.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Niall Date: Saturday February 20, 2010 @10:59AM

    Timbo,

    All of the DSFA rates are available on http://www.welfare,ie . If you use the A-Z and look under R.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Kevin Date: Sunday February 21, 2010 @03:06PM

    Mr Taft in his report, and other contributors to this debate state that the state through its various rent supliments are subsidising the private rental investor! this could not be further from the truth! If the private rental sector did not supply these housing units at a rent which does not even pay for the construction costs, where would the Government be? It would have to provide and build housing themselves, ie. at huge costs to the taxpayer( just think of what the costs of construction would be if managed by our overpaid state employees). If anything the private landlord is subsidising the taxpayer by taking over the states responsibility of care and housing huge numbers of people at a cost the government could not come near to matching.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Theorb Date: Monday February 22, 2010 @01:34PM

    To Paul / Bob ,

    Please please stop spinning lies on the receovery of the property market - Do you remember this quote from 2007 ???????

    I really like the references to Glass bottle sale and Ballsbridge sale of of Jury's - you sure do know your property - This surely has to be the quote of the year re B McNamara and Sean Dunne

    "do you really believe that 2 of the wealthiest men in the country have have been "conned" into parting with vast amounts of money?"



    Re: The Daft Report Q2 2007 Posted By: PAUL Date: Friday July 27, 2007 @04:40PM
    No dear,the sensible people have allready bought and have seen massive capital appreciation!Who cares if 10-20% is knocked off this "paper profit".And does it really matter if the property is their PPR and they have no intention of selling it???For years we have heard that the huge capital appreciation in house values was only "a paper profit",and while that is correct the same also applies to the fall in house values now.
    As for the largest land deal in the history of the state it was actually the Glass bottle factory in Ringsend,AKA SOUTHWHARF,sold to Bernard McNamara in October 2006.As for that sale and the Jury,s sale bought by sean Dunne,do you really believe that 2 of the wealthiest men in the country have have been "conned" into parting with vast amounts of money?
    Also,in 10 years time do you really believe that house prices will be below their current level when inflation is factored in???????I certainly don,t and anyone that does is extremely naive and will be heard mutterring the same sh1te in 10 years time about the housing market being overvalued as they only have themselves to blame for missing the boat again.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Brian Date: Tuesday February 23, 2010 @08:56AM

    Dear Paul /bob, you really don't get it, do you. You think like the old protestant land owning class and look what happened to them! You need to think like a trader if you are to avoid the pit falls of negative equity, rising interest rates and possibly losing the roof over your head.

    For what its worth, I'll try explain it to you. I sold my 2 bed apartment in D8 for €300,000 at the start of 2007. Since then I have been renting the same type of apartment in the same area for between €11,000 and €950 a month. I send approx €12,000 on rent and my landlord will do anything I ask, within reason.

    At the end of this year I expect to buy the same type apartment for €155,000. Less the original selling price and less the rent I have paid, I should make a profit of approx, €100,000. That is €25,000 a year, real money, in the bank.

    So do I think next February is the bottom of market. One thing I do know is that nobody can call the bottom of the market, far too may players. However, I also know that the average Bank crises lasts 4.3 years, which indicates the bottom of the market to be in 2012. But hey, I am not greedy, just looking out for my interests.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Jason7 Date: Tuesday February 23, 2010 @09:42PM

    Well said orb , here is another gem from Paul/bob /paul economics student

    People like him are the reason we have 40% unemployment with the under 25's and an annual current a/c hole of 15% per year !!!

    Paul you are your ilk (the bankers) have committed treason

    at least be man enough to admit you were wrong .

    Re: The Daft Report Q2 2006 Posted By: PAUL,property economics student(yr3) Date: Tuesday October 24, 2006 @07:14PM
    Ah the doom and gloom self appointed property experts are out in force here I see!Some of ye have been pridicting this dramatic collapse for 10 years or more now,and have yet to be right.Point number 1 is that if house prices are moderating it will only be by 10% max,which would only bring them back to the last years level,nothing too dramatic there,nobody,s going to panic too much about that.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Paul Date: Wednesday February 24, 2010 @07:47PM

    Dear Orb / Jason / Brian

    How typical of the Irish Pysche to see others gloat over being correct about something which is causing misery to the thousands in negative equity and without a job. Well done lads give yourselves a pat on the back! But remember that even a stopped clock is right twice a day!

    Sure you were right all along lads! Property is a bad, bad investment. Sure look at all the money you could have made (lost) in the stock market in the last few years (not). As bad and all as property has been since 2007 at least if you had bought then you would be down circa 40% as opposed to 90% if you had put the same money into stocks and shares. The negative equity now probably extends to people who bought in 2004 but they are till in a better position than if they had put the same money into the stock market. I myself bought an apt in 2004 and when the capital paid in the interim is taken into account it is not that bad. I for one am confident that in 10, 20 and 30 years time it will still be a good investment. Where would Orb / Jason / Brian have advocated investing money since 2000, and give us an example of an investment which could offer anything like the leverage that property could?

    So what do Orb / Jason / Brian think about the future of the property market? Are you of the view that prices will continue to decline indefinetely until we reach a point where they are free! Do you believe that in 10 years time prices will be lower in real terms than they are today? All the historic evidence shows that prices will rebound, you know it and I know it but you will never admit it. Let us all know where you think prices will be in 1, 2 and 3 years time in percentage terms from today. Put it in repsonse to this report and it can be highlighted in a years time.

    Just to give you a quick update lads I am out of college with a 1.1 degree, in full time employment in the property industry with a salary over twice the national average and a fully expensed company car. But unlike you guys I actually appreciate having a job and some stability. In addition to the above my other 2 properties, first bought in 2000 and second in 2002 are going well with nice tenants paying my mortgage (capital and interest) and service charges. So doom and gloomers keep it up, less buyers means more renters. Rents are already on the way back according to this report which you all conveniently ignored to have a crack at me instead. Keep it up lads, I would lose and find all 3 of you on any level any day!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: owen8 Date: Thursday February 25, 2010 @04:13PM

    Paul, the overwhelming impression of you is that you are exactly the sort of person every parent is secretly terrified their child might one day grow up to be.

    Sure, good call on your investment properties. But this last ten years has done nothing for the people of Ireland except vastly increase the gap between rich and poor, largely thanks to a fictitious property market based on basically free credit. The much-vaunted 'recovery' has already started to come, and it's downwards. Until this gombeen country finally gets it through its thick skull that debt is not wealth, and until an average family on an average wage can afford an average house, and not over 40 bloody years, it'll be a long slow process.

    And, as for 'rents are on the way back up', wait and see the Q2 report this year and let me know how your rental recovery is going - feel free to quote this back to me.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Andrew Date: Friday February 26, 2010 @04:10PM

    I could lay money that these whingers are civil servants or else doing nothing at all ! But thats the same thing now anyway, Have ye done anything to add to this country of ours? This country has come a huge distance in a very short time, sure we have to take a step back at the moment but let us look forward!
    Orb/Jason/Brian ye must have been leading very boring lives waiting for the recession, was it good for ye? Is wallowing all its cracked up to be? Just make sure that when the recovery does set in, ye take a good step back and whatever ye do< do not dare to enjoy it!
    As an aside, property is a long term play, its proved its worth over the last 2000 years, remember its not like concert tickets or mars bars, but a necessity that people cannot do without. Enough of me! Time to go back to your wallowing, sorry for disturbing ye!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Bob Date: Thursday February 25, 2010 @09:01PM

    Anyone see today's Independent (25/2)? Read page 2 ''Second-Hand Home Sales Treble''. This, together with the trend towards stabilsing or increasing rents, strongly suggests that the market has bottomed. Whats everyone waiting for? An article entitled 'You Missed the Boat Because You Were Posting Doom and Gloom Messages on Daft''? Forget other countries. Ignore short-term views. Adopt a pragmatic rather than a left-wing socialist view and use plain old common sense when considering the emerging data.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: NAMAwinelake Date: Friday February 26, 2010 @10:40AM

    The ESRI have decided to suspend publication of their monthly house price index with Permanent TSB for Jan and Feb because there are so few transactions. The last time they published their index was in December 2009 where they recorded a 3.6% fall in December alone (8.5% fall in the period Sept-Dec 2009).

    DAFT have over 19500 properties for rent (is that up 500 from January?).

    What way will rental prices go? Who can tell?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Bob Date: Sunday February 28, 2010 @11:19AM

    I disagree with NAMAwinelake, in suggesting that the ESRI decided to ''suspend'' its index for Jan / Feb. Its website actually states that the reports will now be issued on a quarterly, rather than a monthly, basis and it is not the case that market activity is so low that the ESRI has suspended its indices for Jan / Feb.

    The ESRI also advises that ''The index is based on the agreed sale price and is calculated using...mortgage drawdowns. Therefore a lag exists between the time the sale price is agreed and when the mortgage is drawn down''. It is unsafe to conclude that low rates of activity in 2010 have forced the ESRI to changed the manner in which it presents its data, as that data is subject to a time lag.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: NAMAwinelake Date: Monday March 1, 2010 @12:54PM

    This is the full text of what the ESRI say on their website

    http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/permanent_tsbesri_house_p/

    "22/02/2010

    Please note that due to the low sample size a decision has been made to issue the Permanent TSB / ESRI House Price Index on a quarterly basis rather than the current monthly report. The next House Price Index will be released in April 2010. "

    People can make their own minds up as to what that means. Not only am I concluding "that low rates of activity in 2010 have forced the ESRI to change the manner in which it presents its data" I am saying that this exactly is what the ESRI are saying.

    Sales volumes are so thin that producing the index on a monthly basis would be unsound because you might have large variations due to a low sample which is hopefully smoothed out in a quarterly index.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Bob Date: Tuesday March 2, 2010 @09:33AM

    yes, but readers should also acknowledge how the document, in referring to a time lag, indicates that the minimal data for January and February results from low market activity in the latter part of 2009, rather than the current upward trend.

    In case anyone doesnt understand, this means that the upsurge in the sale of second-hand homes in 2010, which was recently discussed in the Independent, will not be reflected in the ESRI house price index ultil after mortgages have been finally drawn down and reflected in bank data.

    As anyone who has bought will confirm, there is a 6-10 week delay between signing contracts (which formalises the sale) and drawdown of mortgages. It is because house price indices are based on the closing of sales, rather than signing legal contracts, that the available data for 2010 is based on what occurred in 2009 rather than what is presented happening.

    If anyone wants to keep harking back to last year, then yes, please read something into the low data for January and February, but keep an open mind and be flexible in your opinions. As I've said before, I own my own home - its househunters who are taking the gamble! What happens if you are wrong?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Brian Date: Tuesday March 2, 2010 @12:27PM

    Bob, as I said above, I am a buyer but I am also wary of been trapped in negative equity for years to come. What should a buyer do?

    There is a saying in the market which is useful in this situation. "You should never try to catch a falling knife". The sensible thing to do in a falling housing market is to wait for a least two quarters (six months) of recovery in prices. Don’t worry about missing the boat, prices are going no where fast (except may be down!) and no sane person is predicting a return to the credit fuelled boom of the Celtic tiger years.

    Personally, I don’t think six months is long enough but it all depends on how much risk you are willing to accept. For now, I am going to wait and see how NAMA plays out. Soon the banks will be sitting on piles of cash. Yes, I know they are insolvent, but my guess is that it won’t stop them from chasing a return on their cash and trying to solve all their problems by attempting to re-float the property market. Those addicted to gambling will always chase the last big win.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: NAMAwinelake Date: Tuesday March 2, 2010 @01:08PM

    "What happens if you are wrong? "

    Firstly I have no idea better than the next person whether prices will rise or fall this year. The last forecast I saw by a group of pundits was at the start of January 2010 whose median forecast was a fall of 9% in 2010. Below is the link.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0105/breaking33.html

    If those with a negative view are wrong then they will have missed the exact bottom of the market (assuming no double dip recession and all that). However they will have their deposit and mortgage approval in place to take advantage of a rising market.

    On the other hand if they are right then they will avoid losing 3.6% per month on a €213k average house (that's €8000 per month based on the last available December 2009 house price index from ESRI).

    By the way I see that there are 19462 properties for rent in the State on DAFT today.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: NAMAwinelake Date: Tuesday February 23, 2010 @01:30PM

    Well this is going to be an interesting year. The majority of rental yields in the report will produce a loss for landlords paying a standard variable mortgage of 3.69%. Note that the Central Bank of Ireland believes EU rates will increase by 0.5% this year and it is widely thought that present bank margins of 1-1.75% are unsustainable and will need to rise to a more usual 3% margin. The Central Bank governor yesterday called for reductions in "nominal wages" and he referred to unemployment rising to 14% (maybe he was rounding up from 13.5% previously forecast by the Bank but I wouldn't bet). April 2010 will see the CSO release population statistics and I'm betting we'll see the first reduction since 1990 (migration turned negative last year for the first time in 15 years and appears to be pciking up pace).

    Where does this place landlords with rising costs and reduced demand from people earning less money. Who will win the tug of war - landlords must decide if they rent at a loss but each void month is a sunk cost. Alternately, tenants may have to shell out a higher proportion of their reduced wages on renting but for long will that go one before tenants look for other accommodation or emigrate?

    I think the battle lines are indeed being drawn and this is going to be an interesting one if you're spectating on the sidelines. Are we going to see landlords continue to lose money (rent received versus interest paid), are they going to sell up to cut their losses or are they going to brazen it out with asking prices?

    By the way Brian, banking crises may well "only" last 4 years but extreme property crashes can take decades to recover (cf Japan and Sweden).

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Holger Date: Wednesday March 3, 2010 @03:40PM

    read s.th. about bubble theory from the maximum price it will be down 70% in our current estate the peak was 500k now on on offer 299k I guess you would get it around 270k as it is sitting on the market for a while now

    Bubble theory suggests a low at 30% or 150k but this is surely one of the better built estates so I can imagine a bottom at 230k there is still a lot of question marks on the housing market

    1. interest rates >>> for Ireland a timebomb as most mortgages don`t have long term fixed interest rates
    2. labour market and emigration could have negative effect on the housing market as many mortgages are based on the income of two working people
    3. location - a large number of houses in remote areas won`t be sellable at all or only with large discounts in better locations the prices will be lower but the start recovering at some stage unless interest rates go through the roof
    4 taxes you can`t take away more spending power from people and expect the same demand for housing as before

    >>> All in all still very interesting for me to observe and I still do hope not too many people(especially young families) get into trouble with their mortgage

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: NO1FAN Date: Wednesday March 3, 2010 @10:01PM

    CURRENT UPDATE;
    AS OF TODAYS DATE, A NUMBER OF BANKS HAVE JUST POSTED THEIR RECORD MULTI MILLION EURO LOSSES.
    THANKFULLY, THERE WON'T BE A RUN ON THE BANKS DUE TO THE GUARANTEE OF 100K PER CUSTOMER PER BANK.

    THERE IS A HUGE UPSURGE IN THE NUMBER OF NEW 'FOR SALE' SIGNS SHOOTING UP AROUND THE DUBLIN AREA, ALL AREAS OF DUBLIN.

    DOES SUCH AN UPSURGE POINT TO A BOTTOMING OUT- I DON'T THINK SO. IT'S LIKE I SUGGESTED, PEOPLE SELLING UP WHILE THEY CAN STILL GET SOME EQUITY.
    I DON'T THINK IT'S A CASE FOR BUYERS OF "GET ON THE LADDER BEFORE YOU MISS THE BOAT", RATHER IT'SA CASE OF GET A FEW THOUSAND EURO FOR MY PROPERTY BEFORE THE TRADE OF CASH AND LOANS COMES TO A COMPLETE HALT.

    I'VE BEEN WATCHING THE PROPERTY MARKET CLOSELY IN THE SOUTH OF DUBLIN AND WHILE THERE WAS A PICK UP IN INTEREST IN THE MARKET IN THE FIRST 4 OR 5 WEEKS OF THE YEAR, I THINK THERE STILL EXISTED A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF NAEIVITY, AS PEOPLE STILL THOUGHT THE RULES OF 2005/2006 APPLIED, AND THEY WOULD GET A MORTGAGE FOR THE PROPERTY THEY WANTED. SO WHILE A FEW SALES WENT THRU, MANY WHICH I WAS INFORMED WERE SALE AGREED, OR HAD CERTAIN OFFERS, ARE NOW STILL ON SALE A COUPLE OF MONTHS LATER, WITH A LOWER "ASKING" PRICE.

    THE WAY I SEE IT IS; IF THE PRICES DROP ANOTHER 20%, MORTGAGES WILL BE LESS OF A RISK, AND IT'LL MEAN A DIFFERENCE OF UP TO 10 TEARS LESS PAYING OFF A MORTGAGE. THEREFORE, BACK TO REALITY.

    SO WAITING ANOTHER FEW MONTHS, AND NOT PLAYING INTO THE HANDS OF THE ESTATE AGENTS IS KIND OF A NO BRAINER.

    WHEN SUCH A DROP OCCURS, THE MARKET'LL GET GOING AGAIN, BUT AT A REASONABLE PACE, IF THE PRICES DON'T DROP QUICKLY ENOUGH, THEN MY FRIENDS, WE'LL HAVE A REPEAT OF 2009.

    SO DON'T LET THE ESTATE AGENTS PANIC YOU INTO SPENDING 100K EURO MORE THAN YOU NEED TO. AND FOR ESTATE AGENTS, IT'S BUMS ON SEATS- 20% LESS COMMISSION ON EACH PROPERTY, BUT 100% MORE SALES, AND YOU CAN CONTINUE TO DRIVE A FLASH CAR, BUT NOW YOU CAN SLEEP EASIER- IMAGINE THAT!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Andrew Date: Monday March 8, 2010 @03:49PM

    Yes, the banks did report a loss, a record loss, but seeing that they never had a loss before, a single euro would be a record!
    IF YOU LOOKED BEYOND THE FRONT PAGE HEADLINES. YOU WOULD HAVE LEARNED THAT THE AIB SHARE PRICE ROSE 20% LAST THURSDAY AND A FURTHER 16% ON FRIDAY! ALSO A RECORD, BUT HIDDEN AWAY NICELY IN THE MIDDLE PAGES. FUNNY, IF THEY HAD MADE THAT MUCH OF A LOSS IT WOULD HAVE MADE A SCREAMING HEADLINE OF DOOM. SO MUCH FOR OUR STANDARDS OF JOURNALISM.
    The world is not coming to an end, just a readjustment, lies, damn lies and statistics, is not a new phenomenon, trying to classify all housing as equal is ludicrous, its not and never will be. Trying to say a home in a leafy suburb close to schools, third level education, hospitals, services, sports and leisure facilities plus good transport options, to a home in a barren estate 3kms outside Mullingar is disingenuous to say the least.
    Have a look at whats being bought at the moment ( whether you like it or not its happening ) its good homes in good areas, the people buying couldnt give 2 hoots about the vacancy levels in meaningless areas, they know where they want to live and they are doing something about it now! after all we are living in the "now". Good on them.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Brian Date: Tuesday March 9, 2010 @02:25PM

    "The total stock of properties available for sale in Dublin has fallen by 17% during
    2009, the largest fall of any region in the country." We can only guess as to how many buyers are out there. Is 17% enough to stablise prices? ~We will just have to wait and see. In any event the rate of decline of the last two years can't continue, if it did, houses would be worthless and I dont think anybody foresees that happening.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Bob Date: Tuesday March 9, 2010 @05:20PM

    People, see EBS website:

    '' EBS Building Society today released the results of first time buyer research. The research found that while job security concerns are prevalent, first time buyers are positive about the housing market and a majority (67%) feel that now is a good time, or very good time to purchase their first home. Among the target audience of potential first time buyers, about three in ten are actively looking for their first home, with most of the balance (6 in 10) stating that they will be actively looking to buy before the year is out''.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Brendan Date: Tuesday March 9, 2010 @05:19PM

    If you go buy a report in todays Times "Most First Time Buyers Plan To Buy This Year" then the cost of houses will stabilse. I think this is the time to buy a house if you are looking and have the money. They wont go further I think. Again its location, location is everything when renting or buying. A house on the outskirts of a small town will be worth a hole lot less that the same size house in the middle of a large town with decent transport ! Think for a minute of the poor sods that got a home in 2007 for a minute, everyone let them down ! Goverment, Banks.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: NO1FAN Date: Sunday March 14, 2010 @08:22PM

    i do agree with andrew's point, that good houses in good ares are selling.
    but these are the houses that have dropped the most value already.
    things have always gone roughly in a percentage basis. the increases year on year, dublin and satelitte towns have always roughly been at the same percentage. and since the turnaround a couple of years ago, things are falling, roughly at the very same percentage rate of decline.
    so why should we think that one area is suddenly going to stop dropping while houses in the country lose their worth.
    the slowdown in the economy is countrywide,
    for those on massive mortgages, i sympathise, but i guess something will probably be done by the govt, in time, to ease the burden.
    for those waiting in the wings- the old theory that you can't lose money on property, has been blasted out of the water.
    and that's why banks aren't valuing the prospective property at the asking prices just yet.
    we'll all know when it's time to buy. when foreign investors come and start buying irish houses, that's a pretty fair indication that prices have bottomed-

    anyway it must be time for daft report Q1-2010.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: andrew Date: Tuesday March 16, 2010 @01:55PM

    As you say, the slowdown is countrywide, but what areas will recover? Some areas will never recover, this is a fact, unfortunate but true. We will go with the world trend of urbanisation and within these conurbations there will be great, good, ok, bad, very bad and terrible locations, there has never been a better time to get yourself into the best position you can afford.
    This time unfortunatly, a rising tide will not lift all boats!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: paul Date: Friday March 19, 2010 @05:59PM

    Andrew, you say "there has never been a better time to get yourself into the best position you can afford.", I hate to spoil the party but the country is bankrupt in all but name, no place will be recovering for a long time, the EU have just burst the fantasy land bubble and said the next 3 budgets will be as bad as the last, so that means more tax increases and wage cuts, which equals less money to be wasting on over priced property i'm afraid. I'm not even going to go into the rest of the factors which will continue to drive all property prices down, I don't think they will fit on the page there are so many.....

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Andrew Date: Monday March 22, 2010 @11:22AM

    PAUL : The Country is far from bankrupt!
    I dont think that you grasp the basic tenets of economics, supply and demand ! there will always be demand for good quality homes in good quality locations, even now at the worst time in our recent economic history these homes are selling.
    The stringent budgets are to be welcomed, as a further step to economic stability, especially to bring down the cost of our underperforming vastly over paid public/state sector. These changes will bring a confidence back to those of us in the real world.
    Already on the back of two budgets our cost of borrowing has come down and the government have had no problems raising finance on the international bond markets, with all our requirements over subscribed.
    Dont be so doom and gloomy, it wont do you or anybody else any good.
    We are all quite sure you could ramble on forever on the negatives, start concentrating on a few positives it will do you the world of good!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Andrew Date: Monday March 22, 2010 @05:44PM

    Andrew, i'm sorry if I have come across as all negative, but here are some "FACTS".
    I don't but into good locations, everywhere will drop another 20 percent minimum.
    I think you are delusional about whats going on in the real world.

    1. We are heading for 500K unemployment.
    2. We are bankrupt in all but name, the country is borrowing 24 billion a year, this will lead to extra taxes and less spending, which equals lower amount of money to waste on making some other person rich from by buying there property.
    3. We are very uncompetitive, this will take years to adjust itself, this been caused by people like yourself talking up the property market which leads to higher house prices which leads to higher wages which leads to where we are now.
    4. Tens of thousands of people can not pay there bills and getting worse by the day.
    5. More nasty budgets and paycuts to come.
    6. Emigration which will lead to less rental demand which leads to lower prices.
    7. 300K empty houses, ghost estates, banks to foot the bill, oh did I say banks I mean the Irish people through NAMA, 3 cheers for Bertie.
    8. BANKS WILL BE TRYING TO REBUILD THERE BALANCE SHEETS FOR YEARS, THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO EXTRA LENDING.

    Look its sick what has happened to a lot of people but lower house prices and lower rents will be good for us long term, I will not talk the market up, sorry for the realism.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Andrew Date: Tuesday March 23, 2010 @04:47PM

    You are still totally negative, I am becoming increasingly sorry for you !
    Talk of "making other people rich" etc smacks of a serious chip. Relax a bit, life is still going on, the economy is not totally reliant on the property market, there is a lot more going on in our small island.
    The world is slowly but surely coming out of its deep recession, it has before and it will again, regardless of what you may think.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Paul Date: Tuesday March 23, 2010 @06:45PM

    I know it will come out of recession, but the general population will not see any major reversal of fortunes for some time, I only write what I do because I have listened to people I work with talking the same old crap you have for years, I tried to warn them but they would not listen, well actually one did and he still thanks me to this day he did not buy, trust me you don't need to be sorry for me my friend, I don't have a mortgage, I only speak facts, nothing more, if you class facts as been negative well so be it, go ahead and buy another fine over priced property, but I seriously doubt you will somehow.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Andrew Date: Thursday March 25, 2010 @03:03PM

    Hi Paul,
    Well I am sure your landlord is delighted that you are paying his mortgage, we need more like you!
    Remember you will be paying rent for another 30/40/50 years, long after you have paid your landlords mortgage, you will then be paying for his retirement! whos going to pay for yours? Are you going to rely on pension salesmen or even better ' the markets', I wish you well!
    As an aside, not all property was bought at the height of the boom, 90% was bought long before it, with much of that figure still with relatively low mortgages, a lot with none at all.
    You drone on and on about 300,000 vacant units as if all are equal, well some are a lot more equal than others. Good houses in good areas with realistic prices are selling, there are not too many of them. The rest have bit more to fall.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Paul Date: Sunday March 28, 2010 @01:27PM

    I'll have the guts of 70K in the bank if I choose to buy when they drop another 20 plus percent, its a lot for me and I only have it because I rented and did not listen to people like yourself who think house price rises are so great, don't worry nobody is going to miss the boat and get caught up by a big swing in property prices, ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN BECAUSE NO BANK WILL HAVE MONEY TO LEND, please just deal with facts.
    Anyway you still don't seem to grasp whats going on in the country, I just read an article on how much the economy has dropped in real terms from the 2007 peak, 25 percent, this is the worst recession/depression we have ever had, the real fun is ahead of us i'm afraid, all that bubble money is gone and won't be coming back, any landlord that has bought property in the last say 5 years or possibly more should be a tad worried, but what can ya do?, oh I forgot, try and talk up the market, but thank god the vast majority have twigged the waffle now and even if they don't chances are they won't get that mortgage anyway...

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: curious jane Date: Tuesday March 16, 2010 @09:01PM

    Just wondering is the figure of 877 euro for 3 bed in D10 correct?
    (it is less than the 2 bed 875 and much significantly lower than recent quarters Q3 1017, Q2 1072, Q1 1174).

    There are very few D10 3 beds so this may be a factor....

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Blitz Date: Sunday March 21, 2010 @11:17PM

    What is the situation if you gave two houses as equity against a loan from the bank and at a later stage found due to falling rents etc you cant re-pay and you decide to tell the banks to take the houses . Will they follow you for the rest of the money if the houses dont achieve the total value of the loan amount ? .

    What is the legal situation ?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: NO1FAN Date: Monday March 22, 2010 @10:46AM

    the answer to this question, depends on who you are-
    if you're an average paye worker, etc with not much other debt and have tried your best to keep up payments, the chances are they will look for the money, but i don't think anyone really knows the answer to this question, thhere are so many people in the same boat, that realistically the banks have to face the reality that people just have no way of ever paying back these loans.
    MY ADVICE WOULD BE TO TALK TO M.A.B.S. OR SOME OTHER PERSON OR BODY WHO CAN GIVE INDEPENDENT ADVICE ON SUCH MATTERS- DON'T BUTY HEAD IN THE SAND, AND LIKE EVERYTHING ELSE, PROBLEMS ARE OFTEN AT LEAST HALVED BY SHARING WITH SOMEONE WHO UNDERSTANDS AND CAN TELL YOU HOW OTHERS ARE COPING.

    however, if you are not such a paye worker, etc and your loans are out of this world, having borrowed and borrowed mystically large amounts of cash to outdo another developer, and have now shown yourself to be at a minus of several million, then keep spending, keep up your lavish lifestyles, foreign flash holidays, become a minor irish celebrity.

    irish poverty laws are a bit confusing-
    if you are a paye worker, and can afford to pay your bills, live in reasonable comfort, then you're not poor.
    if you have little or no income, trouble paying bills, trouble feeding your family, no chance of getting a loan except from an extorting loan shark feeding on vulerable people to multiply their proplems; then you are poor.
    if your car is worth 50,000, your house is worth €3m, and have property and arts to another total value of €1m, but have loans for speculative property and development deals in excess of €100m, then despite being down more than €95m, with no hope of paying this money back, then, in this country, you're still classed as rich and can continue to live your lavish lifestyle and go on radio and tv and tell us how to run this country.
    SOME ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: TheOrb Date: Wednesday March 31, 2010 @01:28PM

    Could not agree more B - Yesterday was truly a shocking day for every Irish citizen , thanks to peolpe like paul /paul economics student /bob every man woman and child in this country has been handed a bill for €30,000 for his and Seanie's exploits .


    paul /paul economics student /bob you should be ashamed , you have bankrupt this country for generations .

    Todays headline in the Star said it best .

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Paul Date: Wednesday March 31, 2010 @03:56PM

    Now, now ORB, calm down! There is no need to make this personell. I never borrowed a cent from Anglo in my life, and never borrowed any money for developmenjt land from any other bank either. All I did was buy an Apt for me and my wife in late 2004 and a couple of other investmetn properties in 2001 and 02, both rentals and both occupied. To blame me for the current state of the ecomony is a bit of a reach ORB!

    BTW if you think yesterday was bad wait until tranches 2, 3 and 4 go into NAMA. Yesterdays tanche was the top 10 borrowers, and they would have held the better sites, and properties, most of them in Urbasn areas. Wait until they start puttnig in the 30 acre sites in Leitrim and Longford, discounts of circa 70%.

    Re the €30k cost to every man, woman and child in the country is this the tabloid "Headline" figure or has it actually soem basis in reality?? Have you actually tried working out how much it is likely to cost or are you gouing on the assumptioon that the GOVT pays €x for the loans and received nothing in return at any stage??? Please revert with clarification

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Paul Date: Wednesday March 31, 2010 @05:18PM

    To The Orb,

    You said "Could not agree more B - Yesterday was truly a shocking day for every Irish citizen , thanks to peolpe like paul /paul economics student /bob every man woman and child in this country has been handed a bill for €30,000 for his and Seanie's exploits ."

    Not sure if your talking about me "paul economics student" here, the guy who was been called negative for telling the truth about our wonderful economy:)

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Paul Date: Thursday April 1, 2010 @06:28PM

    No Paul, it seems that there is more than 1 Paul in the country and I believe that he/she was actually talking about me!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: B Date: Wednesday March 31, 2010 @07:31AM

    Shocking day yesterday. So much money, our money is needed to keep banks open. They are not leanding, nor helping people, but more Billions are being given to them. If I did not have tyes to here, I would leave ! I dont want my children paying huge taxs for years to help these bankers. What about Quinn, he must have upset some big boy some where, sure what he did was wrong but pleny of others have done the same thing. Why pick on him, hes one of the very few rich people in Ireland that actually pay his taxes here !!!! Oh yeah this was surposed to be about the rent report, I rent out an apartment in Navan, real nice place to be honest 750 a month, the tenants are very happy as their heating bills are nearly nothing and the location is great, location, location and in my case build quality !!!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: NO1FAN Date: Friday April 2, 2010 @10:03PM

    CRUCIFIXION?
    no, freedom , actually.

    the life of brian lenihan. thanks to the two brians on today, good friday 2010.
    you guys have nailed us to this coffin ship called Ireland. thanks a lot guys. i think if i was locked in a tomb till easter sunday, i'd wait a little longer to come out. obviously the level of greed and backhanders and backstabbing has grown to a higher multiple than way back in 00-AD, and it's gonna take alot more than 3 days to sort it out, and we're all getting crucified for the forseeable future.
    and this is coming from a fianna fail voter.

    NOW, Go away, he ain't the messiah.

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