2010: a turning point for Ireland's property market

Alan McQuaid, Chief Economist, Bloxham Stockbrokers

7th Jan 2010

Alan McQuaid, Chief Economist, Bloxham Stockbrokers, commenting on the latest Daft research on the Irish property market.

For the vast majority of people 2009 was a year well and truly to forget, with the Irish economy contracting at a record rate and unemployment soaring as a result. The global financial crisis continued to dominate matters with the availability of credit or rather the ongoing lack of it, remaining the key theme. Against this background it was hardly surprising that the domestic property market continued to suffer, with house prices falling sharply all across the country. Indeed, the latest property review from daft.ie makes very sober reading, with little indication that things will improve dramatically on the housing market front any time soon.

According to the survey, asking prices last year were down around 19% on average following a decrease of almost 15% in 2008, while in the final quarter of 2009 they dropped to just over €242,000, a staggering €110,000 or so below their peak. Dublin City Centre has been the worst hit area during the housing market downturn and this was again evident in the latest review, with asking prices in the fourth quarter of last year down 42.5% from their peak. However, all areas of the capital saw sizeable falls, with North County Dublin the least affected, but still down close on 31% from the peak in early 2007. Outside Dublin, one could pick any county and see a similar result, with prices in Cork and Galway down around a third in the final quarter from where they were at the height of the boom. Limerick posted the best result, though here again prices in the fourth quarter of 2009 were still almost 21.5% off peak.

That said, there are some seeds of comfort from the Daft report, with the average time to sell a property falling from the previous quarter. The typical Dublin property is now taking about four months to sell, compared to seven months elsewhere in Leinster and more than nine months in other parts of the country. Meanwhile, the stock of properties for sale in the country remains above 60,000 units, but in Dublin that represents a decline of 17% in the year. The overall message in the report is that while house prices continue to adjust downward, there appears to be an easing off in the rate of decrease.

The collapse in property prices has seen many households falling into negative equity and with thousands losing their jobs, the numbers in mortgage arrears has increased dramatically. And the brutal impact of the recession on families is evident from the fact that almost 1,000 repossession orders were initiated in the High Court in 2009, up close on a third on the 2008 total of 758. In the current circumstances it is hard to be optimistic on the prospects for the property market in the immediate future. Indeed, it is difficult to see the property market improving dramatically until labour market conditions get better and consumers become more confident about their job prospects going forward. And even then, consumers will be relying on the banks to make credit more freely available than what they are doing at the moment.

Although houses have in general terms become more affordable in terms of price, this is of little comfort to potential purchasers if credit is still very tight. As such, it is therefore imperative that the country's banking system is put back on a sound footing as soon as possible. This must be the Government's main objective of 2010, because businesses/enterprises cannot hope to create jobs if money is not freely flowing around the economy, and unless underlying labour market conditions improve then the property market will continue to stagnate.

The Irish economy has faced extremely difficult conditions over the past couple of years, though recent indicators suggest that the worst of the downturn is over. But how soon the country returns to sustainable economic growth is open to debate. Still, with signs that economic conditions are improving globally, there are reasons to be optimistic, especially as a small open economy, Ireland is highly dependent on its export sector to boost its national wealth. Indeed, one thing is for sure and that is the export sector will be the key driver of the economy over the next couple of years, and for exports to boom, significant price adjustments will have to be made. There was major progress on this front in 2009, but more will need to be done in 2010 and that means further price falls, including those for houses, particularly in the first half of the year.

My own view on the economy is that we will see positive year-on-year growth in the second half of 2010, and that may result in a slight increase in house prices towards the latter part of the year. However, in overall terms, I would expect house prices to drop another 10-15% on average this year, with Dublin again seeing the biggest decline. But as prices start to recover, Dublin should see larger gains than elsewhere, though the major cities should quickly follow the upward trend of the capital. Looking further ahead, I expect house prices to be higher on average in 2011 than in 2010, and should rise on a five-year view as the labour market returns to normal.

That said, the level of any increase in house prices over the next few years is likely to be only in single digits, with three factors - the banks' adoption of a more cautious stance to lending than in the 'Celtic Tiger' era, the return of interest rates to 'normal' and the possible introduction of a property tax for 'principal' homes of residence - all weighing negatively on the market.


HIGHLIGHTS:

Asking Prices
Asking Prices, Residential Sales

Stock and flow of properties
Stock and Flow of Properties


SNAPSHOT:

Average asking prices across Ireland in Q4 2009
Snapshot of Asking Prices in Q4, 2009

Discuss This Article

  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Kidult Date: Thursday January 7, 2010 @09:02AM

    Mr. Mc Quaid, quite rightly points to the availability of credit or the lack of it as the key driver in house prices. Supply and demand can be very misleading when there are low volumes of trade. However, at home and abroad, most of the bad debt in the system has not been written off. It's still there, buried in the balance sheets (or in vehicles not revealed by balance sheets, ie NAMA) of banks, pension funds and other financial institutions. Our government survives on the largess of the ECB. There are so, so many problems still to be worked out, only the foolish would jump into the market any time soon.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Liza Date: Monday January 18, 2010 @11:29AM

    This is pure speculation: "My own view on the economy is that we will see positive year-on-year growth in the second half of 2010, and that may result in a slight increase in house prices towards the latter part of the year." What do you base this statement on McQuaid? House prices are free falling, rents are also coming down, the country is indebted to the brim and banks have no money to lend, how on earth will things improve in 6 months time? I second the previous poster:"only the foolish would jump into the market any time soon"

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Sean Date: Wednesday February 10, 2010 @08:35PM

    Absolutely correct.....they may go to 1996 levels, pre boom times, the boom is over, is it not......only one bread winner per household now, so yes, another 40% to 50% reduction in asking price is possible.....China will be exporting, then Germany......costs must come down.......including house prices........they will start crashing in the next year or two......

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: JOE Date: Sunday February 6, 2011 @01:31PM

    Do YOU STILL SEE IMPROVMENT IN 2010 BECAUSE THEY DROPPED 5 PERCENT IN DECEMBER 2010 OH YEA THIS IS 2011 ISN,T IT i saw the arogance of the so called make belive boom I hope they are crushed rejoin UK AND TRY AND UPDATE YOUR WEB SITE SOME YEAR.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Thursday January 7, 2010 @10:33AM

    Despite the Report being based on asking prices (again in a buoyant housing market actual prices will be closer to asking prices, in a depressed market the buyer should be able to bargain better), I tend to agree with the conclusions of Mr McQuaid that the rate of decline is stabilising (though is still at 16% annualised based on Q4 of 2009 according to Sherry Fitz, down from nearly 40% annualised based on Q1 of 2009). That said, my view is that asking prices out of the gate immediately after the Christmas/New Year break are on average at very high levels.

    I also agree that any recovery will be in the single annual digits and will not take place overnight. The Indie did a poll this week of pundits on property for 2010 and the median forecast was a fall of 9% (same sort of range as Mr McQuaid's 10-15%). That means that the average home worth say 240k is going to drop in value by upto 3k per month this year. Add to that monthly mortgage interest of say 700 (100% mortgage at 3.5%). I think I will stick with my 500 per month rental and make 40k "profit" on my personal property this year.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Bob Date: Friday January 8, 2010 @09:45AM

    First-time buyers have been largely absent from the market for at least two years, with many purchasers now waiting for what they believe is the best time to buy.

    In doing so, buyers must recognise at least the possibility of price increases, as forecast in this report and while some may believe that values will fall further, they should not hold this view merely because it is convenient or desirable to do so.

    Purchasers must consider how they would feel if prices began to rise, especially as individuals would be forced to pay higher amounts or be excluded from the market once again and doomed to renting for the foreseeable future.

    Most buyers watch the market keenly, waiting for signs of price stabilisation. Given the number of buyers waiting in the wings and given the lack of houses built over the past 2-3 years, there is a real likelihood that a significant number of individuals will decide to re-enter the market simultaneously.

    Although there are other operative factors, such as the availability of credit, it is this collective realisation that prices have bottomed out which will give rise to a new round of house price inflation.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Dazza Date: Friday January 8, 2010 @02:14PM

    Interesting perspective on the "buyer" market. I would tend to concur that there are buyers in the wings waiting for further price falls. If you look at large US corporations like Bank of America, their recent acquisition of Merly Lynch bodes for a renaissance in Finacial circles. their stock is rising and Canada also is seeing a housng boom in current climate. London prices are also increasing and in my concerted view the housing market in Ireland has platteaued. Any vultures looking for easy picking may welll find themselves caught on the rebound in 2010 or at least the latter part where Dublin prices should start to turn around. The prices will not fall any further in fact indications are some houses in Dublin are going under the hammer above asking price which is a healthy sign. Satellite towns will suffer more than the leafy suburbs of Dublin. Houses which were selling for between 350 - 400K are now looking for 450K on my home.ie - The market is picking up across Europe and the worst could be over. Anybody's guess I'd say....I'd buy now if I were you!!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: DAS Date: Monday May 17, 2010 @01:37PM

    ......im guessing you are caught up in the firestorm......or maybe you are just a mug.... prices cannot increase in Ireland for minimum 30 months.....every sensible econonic indicator points firmly to this.....good luck mate!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Kidult Date: Monday February 15, 2010 @08:41PM

    How will you feel when house prices continue to fall? just ask some of the thousands of people in negative equity and not the estate agent (bob) above. Those in negative equity are not going anywhere for a long time. Thats if they dont lose the roof over their head!

    ECB Interest rates at currently 1% having come down from a peak of 5%, which means house prices should have nearly doubled in the last 3 years, all things been equal. But all things are not equal.

    There are at least a 100,000 empty properties in Ireland, more than enough for all would be first time buyers. Rents continue to plummet, a real worry for any would be investors. We are in the middle of the worst recession since the great depression. We have a gold standard currency which we just cant afford and is pricing us out of all our old markets, such as UK and US. Our government has adopted a policy of internal deflation to keep us in the euro which will mean years of austerity, wage cuts, high employment and a decline in living standards. Yet our debts remain the same. All asset prices and in particular house prices will decline this year, as real interest rates (the rates charged by banks /markets) increase. The banks have to increase their rates, not least because they need profits to pay for their debts. I could go on and on, but I think you get the picture.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Don Date: Tuesday February 23, 2010 @07:56PM

    I agree with a lot of it apart from a slight increase at the end of 2010 - not a hope in hell. House prices were overpriced at least 40% so anything that was about 350 you should get for 200. Bring it back to the old days when a mortgage should be at max 3 times one persons of a couples salary (seeing as most houses have only one person working these days ). We're going to have to transform into a low cost economy in the coming years so house prices will follow. Next few years budgets will show!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Ben Date: Sunday May 23, 2010 @09:32AM

    It is absolutely astonishing to hear the so-called experts predicting a rise in property prices (albeit a modest rise) in the coming year or two. And speaking as though house prices have collapsed! Let me tell you, they haven't collapsed at all!
    There are several tried and tested internationally recognised methods of placing a value on a house. One of the most reliable is to multiply the potential annual rental income by 13 to 15 times. This is how to benchmark the value - and just because you intend to actually live in it rather than rent it out, shouldn't mean that you pay double! You don't pay 1K for a 500 Euro bike because you intend to ride it yourself rather than rent it to your neighbours!
    Don't take my word for it! Listen to David McWilliams! Prof Morgan Kelly! Prof Brian Lucey!
    The internet is laden with properties "reduced to sell" that are still 40% more than their real value. Asking prices of 400K for house worth 2.6K.
    The fact that the "asking price" has been reduced is of no significance. What matters is the value.
    When oh when will the Irish people wake up and smell the coffee?

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: COnor Coburn Date: Thursday January 7, 2010 @11:19AM

    Are there any records of sale prices as opposed to asking prices?

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: BM Date: Thursday January 7, 2010 @02:57PM

    Only auction prices are publicly available due to a ruling a number of years ago under one of the information acts.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: mike Date: Thursday January 7, 2010 @02:41PM

    read the report ans still unsure should i hold out until mid year to buy? looking to buy in west dublin,

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: johnhealy101@hotmail.com Date: Sunday March 14, 2010 @05:37PM

    Im selling a 3 bed ,end of three in a row in castelcurragh west dublin. add in daft ,No 7 the vale selling at 200k o --check it out

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: gerry c Date: Thursday January 7, 2010 @11:05PM

    It is encouraging to see a positive report and let us hope that the days of wreckless lending are long gone.One query I would like to pose is: why are estate agents adverts still posting the crazy prices of a couple of years ago when we have seen, as pointed out in this report, that house prices have fallen by 30% + and by more in some cases.Is it now not time to forget the 'false'advertising of yesteryear and to post realistic prices so as to encourage further interest in the market?

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: TB Date: Thursday January 7, 2010 @11:35PM

    While i think the report makes interesting reading i would like to point out that i have a house for sale in D 24 on the daft website since early Oct 2008, it is in excellent condition price has been reduced numerous times from original price of 385k to now 275k and has still not sold so i wonder where the average selling time has gone from 9 months down to 4 months in Dublin. the banks are still not lending despite what they are saying i have had 3 potential buyers not get a loan

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Rhemi Date: Friday January 8, 2010 @07:24AM

    Funny how once again Mr Mc Quaid evades analysis and goes for the bogus 'external' cause argument. Few years ago, it was Bloxham boys along with other brokers who told us that all was fine - equity and house prices were not overbought, because we had 'real economic growth advantage' over the Germans and the French. Now, it is 'availability of credit' 'to be repaired by the Government' that is holding Irish house prices back. Assuming that AIB and Bank of Ireland start lending money, per Mr Mc Quaid there will be no stopping those tens of thousands unemployed and hundreds of thousands who have suffered pay cuts and negative equity from buying into those glistening Celtic Tiger estates left unsold across the distant fields.

    This is what passes for economics in Bloxham?

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: david Date: Tuesday January 12, 2010 @04:06PM

    There is a cost for cheap housing! Nobody can afford it. The hidden costs of housing over the last decade have been the subsidisation of vast numbers of peoples accomodation by the paying/buying public plus the exorbitant labour costs which were well above union rates for long periods.Its going to be a long time before we see large housing developments start again, whats built now is it! the population is rising(fact) and once you take out the housing stock in areas where nobody wants it there wont be much left. Interest rates will rise(fact) there has never been a better time to buy. Yes there will be hardships for new buyers(not changing the car/getting rid of the second car, no sking holiday etc, this is all relative) but ask the older generation what situation they were in when they bought. anybody who finds a home they can afford, finance, should avail of the opportuinity now, threr will never be a better time

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: paul Date: Wednesday January 13, 2010 @03:35AM

    35000 people and counting can't pay there mortgage, not to mention the avalanche of personal debt (credit cards, personal loans) that will go bad, interest rates at rock bottom and will be rising shortly, heading for 500,000 people on the dole, migrants who where renting now heading home leading to rents crashing and therefore exerting more downward pressure on prices.
    House prices won't going anywhere but south over the next few years until unemployment reduces drastically, could someone please tell me where the jobs are going to come from in our uncompetitive economy?, dream on people, 2011 will be no different....

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: david Date: Wednesday January 13, 2010 @05:52PM

    Not all house/apartment prices will rise, but certainly those in good areas with public transport, nearby schools,third level education, "lifestyle" services( sports facilities,cinemas, restaurants, good variation of shops and cafes), and medical services will.
    The basic tenet of all property rules was abandoned over the last ten years, Location, location, location! All interested parties, banks, buyers, developers, ignored this most fundamental of rules. You can do anything to a house, you cannot change where it is. This mistake will not recur! THe recent weather spell will just heighten peoples awareness of the area in which they live. Maybe I should have been clearer when advocating for people to purchase now. The cost of residing in badly serviced, remote areas is going to multiply, we have seen from recent sharp increases in fuel when theres even a hint of world economic recovery,

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Wednesday January 13, 2010 @01:12PM

    "The population is rising (fact)" ? It was until the start of 2009 but net migration is pointing towards a negative 100,000 this year, births will be around 70,000 if we maintain the 14/1000 birth rate and deaths will be about 25,000 if we maintain our mortality rate of 6/1000 so this year there are likely to be 65,000 less souls in the State and at 3 souls per house that means we'll have an extra overhang of 20,000 homes plus. And remember we had an overhang to start with.

    Again the median estimate of falls this year is 9% [from the Indie last week], no-one (the vested interests estate agents, conveyancers, valuers, investors, sellers, government, buyers, advertisers) can know how much further they will fall or indeed if and when the bottom will be reached. My tuppence worth is that they will fall on average another 20% assuming the economy picks up later this year and expands next year.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Paul Date: Thursday January 14, 2010 @09:08AM

    Timbo

    Where have you plucked a population decrease of 65,000 for 2010 from?? 70,000 births and 25,000 deaths leaves a Net population growth figure of 45,000. It seems that you assume 110,000 people will leave the country in 2010 (and that is based on an assumption that we get 0 inward migratrion!). Even assuming a minimal inward migratration figure of 15,000, you are then assuming that 125,000 people will leave the state in 2010.

    I would love to know where your analysis (or lack of thereof) has come from and where this magical 65,000 figure has come from! It certainly does not tie in with any analysis carried out by the CSO or ESRI. Is this another example of an Anti VI plucking, massaging and making up figures to support their own agenda???

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Thursday January 14, 2010 @11:34AM

    Paul, my arithmetic should have said the reduction would be 55,000 this year, not 65,000 though at an average of 3 souls per home, that's still over 18,000 less occupied homes this year.

    With respect to net migration which is emigration less immigration. The CSO will publish the annual figures sometime after April 2010. The last figures for April 2009 are:

    Emigration 65100 (up 44% from 45300 in year ended April 2008 )
    Immigration 57300 (down 33% from 83800 in year ended April 2008)

    Anecdotally, and I'm afraid until the CSO issues its numbers that's all we have, is the rate of increase in emigration has increased (from my own point of view I have seen it particularly to Australia and England) and the rate of immigration has reduced as jobs particularly in construction and retail have dried up. I have not come across anyone who disagrees with that view even those with the biggest vested interest in seeing a reflation of property prices.

    The question then becomes quantifying the change from April 2009 to April 2010 and I have assumed the rate of change has doubled ie that 88% more people will emigrate in y/e April 2010 than y/e April 2009 and that 66% less people will immigrate in y/e April 2010 than in y/e April 2009. I don't know the quantum - I don't think anyone does but knowing the base numbers and anecdoctally observing what is happening, that is my forecast. And that is where I got the 100,000 net migration from.

    I don't have an agenda. I am a renter and buyer so arguably I would like to see lower prices but I am more concerned at seeing the market stabilise and it's not - I tell you that from the coal face of seeing properties and how their prices are dropping. If prices stabilised I could buy knowing that I wasn't losing the best part of 25-30k this year according to the median forecast from pundits in the Indie last week which forecast a 9% drop this year. Others may beat their drums for whatever reason arguing differently (stabilisation, an increase, a decrease or if you're the economics professor at UCD another 50% decrease) - see JJ's post below for a link, those are my cards.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: teddy hobs Date: Sunday February 14, 2010 @02:08AM

    what are you on about youd swear to good this all happened a million years ago , why should any one do with out any thing to make devellopers rich and keep esatate agents in good living. In my opinion prises will keep falling because let me tell your 500k house looked like better value in time when having a job was no problem and house prises were on the rise , than same house now for 350k ..

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Declan Date: Saturday January 9, 2010 @06:59PM

    There is no bottom yet in housing.Tens of thousand's of people are in negative equity and many of them will be in default by the end of 2010.Wages have and are still dropping rapidly,sme's have their employees and 3 day weeks in the hope that the 4th quarter will save them but it will be in vain.Banks will not be receiving morguage payment and therefore they will have stringent lending.
    Back in 1989 I bought my first coop Apartment in Manhattan on 52nd st. for $54k (grant it the maintenance was high but I got on the board and restructured the debt) which was bought in the in '82 for $140.It will take years for housing to bottom here.
    This is not your average run of the mill recession,this is a depression.America is printing money like confetti,there is no real recovery there,the US Govt. is running everything and the recent jobs figure proves that all is not rosy,real unemployment U6 is over 17% and before its all over it will be close to 20% here in Ireland.If you work in the private sector you will know what I mean.
    Peace out!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Bob Date: Sunday January 10, 2010 @11:29AM

    Declan's argument overlooks the short and medium term projections of the ESRI (a respected organisation which is not prone to undue optimism) which support claims that we have gone through the worst of the economic crisis. His message also ignores the fact that we all need accommmodation and seems to treat housing as an optional extra that we can dispense with if it's too dear.

    Although some consider it more cost effective to rent rather than buy a house, we all aspire to owning our own homes and thus the key issue is when, rather than whether, to make the purchase. Do househunters really believe that the cost of buying a particular house will be less in 2011 and 2012 than now? I doubt it and those who expect price falls must acknowledge the gamble they are taking and its implication for the type of property which they will ultimately be able to afford.

    I do not know for a fact that prices will definitely rise over the next 12-18 months, but the pointers (supply and demand) suggest that values will stabilise and then increase towards the latter end of the year. I do know, however, that the prophets of doom equally have no crystal ball and can only offer their opinion. The difference is, however, that I own my home and am not gambling with my future!!!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: teddyhobs Date: Sunday February 14, 2010 @02:40AM

    That sounds like doom time talk ,scaring people into buying houses ,get on the ladder now are you never will, with unemployment figures the way they are and interest rates looking like there on the way up my bet is that property prices are on the way down. also i would point out as you say that the increases will be small, so wait and see

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Damian Date: Monday January 11, 2010 @04:54PM

    If people think house prices are going to level out any time soon they must be 'daft '. House prices are still far to high and i wouldn't be suprised with a 60% fall from 2006 levels. Unemployment is at 12%. Potential first-time buyers (25-35) year olds) are emigrating like rats leaving a sinking ship. Public sector wages have been chopped and renting is back in vogue.

    Get real people.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Wednesday January 13, 2010 @06:09PM

    Think what you are saying makes a lot of true sense,prices on daft. still look daft to me,with emigration and unemployment soaring cant see a shortage in houses for a long time,

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: PC Date: Tuesday January 12, 2010 @09:58AM

    The average house price should be 3/4 times the average industrial wage. During the boom it peaked at 17 times that. There were a couple of factors that caused this availability of loans, speculation and an increase of migrant works (not to mention the increase cost of land and manpower). All of these for the foreseeable future are a thing of the past.
    Personally I'll be waiting for at least another year or two before I buy.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: david Date: Thursday January 14, 2010 @12:53PM

    The cost of housing should be 3/4 times average industrial wage? Do you realise that the cost of construction includes, 9% stamp duty on purchase of site, 25% part 5(contribution to social and affordable housing) , development levies of anything up to 20,000 euro/unit, connection fees for all utilities, 13% vat on sale price and a 20% capital gains tax on any profit. Did I mention the cost of tradesmen at union rates( not negotiable, especially electricians), not to mention exorbitant insurance rates for public liability etc. There is also the cost of bank interest on borrowing to fund site cost and development, factoring in the fact it takes on average 2years to get any significant scheme past planning. Are you still saying 3/4 times AIW ? Utopia must be a nice place to live,

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Sunday February 7, 2010 @09:37PM

    Me thinks you are the one in Utopia. Just because you can't provide at that price doesn't mean buyers can magic money out of thin air. The banks were at that game and now the chickens have come home to roost. If one person defaults on a mortgage of 300,000 euros, not only is that money lost to the banking system but also the 300,000 in various deposits resulting from the spending of the loan and which subsequently are used to back (by magic) further loans at ratios of 17 to one, 33 to 1 in some of the more famous cases. i.e one default on an average mortgage equates to an exponetial loss in the banking sector (central bank closed loop fractional reserve system). This meltdown is still in the early phases and as long as Western countries run trade deficits while their governments run budget deficits we will be in a world of woe. Wages are going to continue to fall and I doubt very much if the yet to be reformed banking system will allow for mortgages of four times an individuals gross wage regardless of 'union wages' etc (what a laugh....tell us, whats the going rate on 'union' dole?). Factor a demographic shift as baby boomers retire and there is no prospect of so-called growth no matter how much money is printed to inflate away this mess.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: JJ Date: Tuesday January 12, 2010 @02:58PM

    If your thinking of buying now, read this and think again:

    http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/wp09.32.pdf

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: eddie Date: Tuesday February 23, 2010 @02:34AM

    thanks

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: k Date: Friday January 15, 2010 @12:51PM

    Can anyone please let me know WHERE EXACTELY those prices for co Kildare were found????????????????? I have NEVER seen anything similar in the last 3 years!!!- a 2 bed apt for 181,000????? Were ALL the prices found in Athy? Nowhere ele you could possibly find that!!!! Because no one wants to live there. I think its time to start getting real. These prices are not real at all. I have not seen any of this big drop in prices. AVERAGE price for a shoebox in a village in co kildare is 250,000 and I mean a SHOEBOX!!! with ridiculous 'communal gardens' (who wants that!) in a fantastic village with so called facilities (Church!! small corner shop selling overpriced tins and cartons!! 2 hrs commuting time!!!) this recession is well deserved!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: The Exile Date: Monday January 18, 2010 @06:25AM

    What's truly strange about the Irish obsession with property investment -- up and down -- is how few investors consider other ways to put their money to work. Irish property is down and headed much lower -- simple fact of life. Why wait until 2050 to break even on Irish property? You would think there would be some discussion of alternative investment opportunities. You would think that the PIIGS' debt would deserve some discussion, but everyone in Ireland is still wrapped up in the property cult. Irish or Greek debt should deserve some discussion. Or does the "man in the street" only concern himself with bricks and mortar. There's a big world out there beyond that miserable, ugly, overpriced house in Marino

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: david Date: Monday January 18, 2010 @04:47PM

    What other investments would you suggest
    Alternative power and energy? Not really for the faint hearted, there is nothing wrong with well thought out property investments, it all comes down to the right building in the right place plus of course a long term view. You could of course enter the fray that is called the markets! then again theres always the Cheltenham and Galway races.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Thanni Date: Monday January 18, 2010 @02:51PM

    Most of the factors which drove prices up have waned or at least are not there anymore. Here's a few
    (1) easy access to mortgage - ex: E40K would allow you to borrow E250K. I know because this was thrown at me by one of our larger lending institutions
    (2) Celtic tiger economy - since gone
    (3) Ireland locked into ECB rates { still in ECB}
    (4) Supply and Demand - Huge Demand for property with supply struggling to meet demand - This has since ended and will NEVER happen again as banks will not be allowed to be so reckless ever again!
    (5) Gov Debt - We borrowed 25 billion to plug budget deficit so we can keep paying the exhorbitantly high salaries to Public sector at 1.6% higher than what the geran government borrows. Gov policy going forward will ensure that this debt is serviced via taxation etc. No house price rises for a long time.
    (6) Natural Price correction in the market - Prices are going southwards for the forseeable future. We could see a 60%-70% decline in property prices from their peak in 2007
    (7) We are broke as a country. Goverment policy must be ruthless to ensure IMF doesn't come as may be the case in Greece!!
    (8) Government must drive wages down to remain competitive and get rid of minimum wage and face down the unions. House prices will once again be commensurate with one's salary. A fat taxi man buying several properties to make a killing caused the mess in the fisrt place as well as greedy estate agents pumping up the price of properties where we now have a generation in negative equity. This must never ever happen again!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Joe Date: Monday January 18, 2010 @06:59PM

    In my opinion, most of the demand that is likely to occur is from those who have been waiting to get homes in the 'quality residential areas' around the main urban centres, where employment opportunities are more plentiful. Those who are waiting for housing to plummet even further can forget it in these areas. House prices are very 'sticky' on the way down. Logic seems to point to a long stagnation, a sort of standoff between buyer and seller. If you want a good house now , go and buy one, pay the price and accept whatever losses you incur, if any.You may not have the same choice in 12 months.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Tuesday January 19, 2010 @06:06PM

    An academic report was produced today by the National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis (Nirsa), based at NUI Maynooth, which advises the Government. The report states that there are 300,000 vacant homes in the state plus 49,000 semi-vacant holiday homes. I'm not sure if there is a definitive source of the total number of homes in the State but I understood that it was 1.2m.

    With the government estimating new home builds this year at 10,000 and with emigration spriralling, does anyone really think that the market as a whole will see anything other than another substantial downwards adjustment this year?

    Not until the economy starts to seriously improve will the property market stabilise in my view. There will be some areas that stabilise quicker than others but the national picture must indicate that generally won't happen this year.

    The link to the newspaper report of the NIRSA study is at

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0119/breaking59.htm

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: David Date: Wednesday January 20, 2010 @09:19AM

    Timbo, with a population of circa 4.5 million and circa 2.79 inhabitants per dwelling, it leaves a housing stock of circa 1.613 million not 1.2 million

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: David Date: Wednesday January 20, 2010 @11:26AM

    David, agreed the population is very close to 4.5m - I think the last census estimate I saw was last Autumn at 4.456m but agree with that. Where did you source the 2.79/home figure from?

    I have seen unsourced comments from economists and journalists about the number of homes in the state and indeed the number having mortgages and not (50:50) but I do not know where these figures are sourced. I have tried the Land Registry and CSO and there was a government housing department - none could provide the answers. So if you let us know the source that would be very helpful, thanks.

    Mind you whether 300,000 is 25% or 20% or indeed 15% of the total housing stock, it is a huge number and I think this report (if accurate and I have asked for a copy as it doesn't appear on the NIRSA website) might be the property bombshell of the decade.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: David Date: Thursday January 21, 2010 @03:40PM

    Hi David, census 2006 states that the average household size across the entire state is 2.8 people, down from 2.94 in 2002 and moving towards the EU average of 2.94 (see link). There are variations acrross regions, cities etc but this is the average

    http://www.cso.ie/newsevents/pr_census2006vol3.htm

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Thursday January 21, 2010 @04:27PM

    David, thanks for the link which also says there were 1.469m households in 2006 so I suppose if the 2.8 people per household has remained constant (it had been trending slightly downward from 2.94 to 2.8 between 2002 and 2006) then that would imply there are indeed 1.6m households. When the CSO says households it is presumably talking about inhabited homes so the 302,625 empty properties and the 49,000 semi-vacant holiday homes would be added to the inhabited homes to give an overall total of just under about 1.95m homes in the state - it says something about the secrecy surrounding property in this country that this may be the first time this statement has been made in any media (given the country only knew there were 302,625 empty homes a couple of days ago)

    It is still a mighty figure that 15% of the 1.95m homes are vacant and presumably will be coming on the market. And that's against a backdrop of a population which is likely to drop if emigration trends continue and also there are likely to be another 10,000 homes built in 2010. Unless the supply of homes are in areas not sought by people, then this must mean there's another big correction coming and the 10% predicted fall this year is looking very low indeed.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Thursday January 21, 2010 @05:53PM

    Just to add another statistic if the 302,625 homes are to come onto the market and if we are to assume that NO new homes are built and Emigration=Immigration (at present it is trending towards Emigration being substantially ahead of Immigration) and the birth and death rates remain the same (6/1000 death rate/ 15/1000 birth rate and a starting population of 4.5m) then it will take the best part of 20 years for the overhang to be used up.

    Of course, there will be new building (10,000 estimated this year) and some of the 302,625 vacant homes will remain vacant for whatever reason but that's a sobering overhang - 20 years worth of supply.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: david Date: Saturday January 23, 2010 @02:28PM

    as for the amount of home mortgages in the state, Colm Rapple recently stated( am open to correction) that 60% of homes in Ireland had no mortgage at all/ and also another 15% had monthly repaymehts in the low 3 figure bracket.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Elka Date: Wednesday January 20, 2010 @11:30AM

    I take your point, but not everyone wants to live in a soulless estate, miles from services and work. I suspect many of these empty houses are in parts of the country that would otherwise have little or no attractive features...

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Sunday January 24, 2010 @11:26AM

    Well if I can get a 3-bed, 2-bathroom, semi with parking and a garden for 30,000 I would put up with a 30-60 minute commute to work (and in Ireland that must be the max commute across any one county apart from possibly Dublin). If my montly mortgage was going to be less than 200, I would put up with living on a so-called ghost estate and I suspect a lot of people would feel the same because they'd be able to have a great quality of life with the extra disposable income.

    Of course no-one is selling 3-bed, 2-bathroom semis at 30,000. Yet. But are developers going to wait 20 years plus before selling their properties? Maintaining them, paying taxes on them, paying interest on their loans. And then there will be some developers who will go bust. Of course not, they will be released onto the market at some point and will have to be deep, deep discounted to attract interest because there is such an oversupply of property in the state.

    And although I have no idea about ghost estates in general, I can tell you in Birr, Co. Offaly there are estates which would appear to be 25-50% empty (they are almost like a tourist attraction) and they are smack dead in the town ( a max of a 10-minute walk at most to the town square, some would be less than a 5-minute WALK). With that degree of oversupply waiting to get on the market, who in their right mind is going to pay a premium price for an ordinary house?

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Elka Date: Tuesday January 19, 2010 @08:42PM

    I hesitate to point out that most if not all postings here, including the original report, are commenting on the asking price, not the sale agreed price. These are not the same thing. Any figures based on asking prices, while perhaps providing a bit of mathematical fun, are pure conjecture. Until the government passes a law to make divulging a property's sale price history a prerequisite to putting a house on the market (see Canada), the buyer I'm afraid is entirely in the dark. 'Keep'em stupid' seems to be the modus operandi here...

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Danny Boy Date: Thursday January 21, 2010 @08:05PM

    Totally agree...

    Furthermore, I've recently read on the news that an estimation of 300 000 properties were empties all around Ireland... a 10 years stock to empty before
    building new ones...
    Well, this is an estimation, the highest one, based on new figures... don't know if it's reliable, but don't know if lowest ones are reliable as well... :-)
    I don't share optimistic view of the report... prices are far from bottom out... but don't want to be pessimistic... rather realistic... wait and see...

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  • 300,000 houses currently empty

    Posted By: Francis Date: Wednesday January 20, 2010 @12:30AM

    So you want a house - read this http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/over-300000-homes-lying-empty-2021818.html

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: RAYMOND Date: Friday January 22, 2010 @01:53AM

    Hi everyone,

    What a story for the furture generation. We will be laughed at for years to come. Can anyone tell me why are we building 10,000 more homes this year if there are 300,000 empty homes in the country. Why does the local authority stop builders for building anything until the over supply is off the market.

    Why would anyone want to buy a house in the remote areas of the country. There are no facilities and you have to drive everywhere. I would love looking at the newspapers when a new housing estate was comming on the market. All they would talk about is the facilities, a pub, a shop and a petrol station. What a joke
    I live in Manhattan New York. How did anyone think this could continue. The wages people were making were off the bandwaves.

    The only way Ireland can and will survive is to be competive with other countries
    Look at the price of a car in Ireland ,it is 2 to 3 times the price of any other country and the cars are a joke spec wise and nobody says anything.

    A good wage in Ireland should be no more than 400 euros a week. That is the honest truth. How can Ireland survive if it cannot compete against other European countries. The days of Ireland having a better education than other countries a long gone.

    Ireland is in bigggggggg trouble. Irish people need to stand back and look in from the outside and see what is going on. Everyone was laughing at the Polish when they were comming to Ireland working, spending no money in Ireland and sending all there money back home. Who has the last laugh now. Irish people are in debt up to there necks with no way out. That is what life is going to like for many years to come.

    Sorry for the long letter but life is tough

    Raymond

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Friday January 22, 2010 @11:09AM

    You can now find the NIRSA publication (300,000 vacant properties in the State) at

    http://www.nuim.ie/nirsa/

    and follow the link at the bottom of the page. It is absolutely fascinating and explosive stuff. 170,000 homes being held back by developers waiting for the market to increase, photographs of ghost estates as advertised on property websites compared with photographs of the same estates taken by the researchers at NIRSA and indications of where the estates are (Cork features heavily). I recommend anyone buying a home reads the study, it's a major step towards some form of transparency in the Irish property market - the register of actual sales prices being introduced this year will be the next step though it's presently not clear who can access it but it is likely to make "asking price" reports and comment a welcome thing of the past.

    Not that I have the qualifications of the other property expert pundits (and I am a buyer and have an interest in lower prices though I would prefer to have a stable market) but my tuppence worth is that the market generally will drop 20-25% this year.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Raymond Date: Friday January 22, 2010 @11:07PM

    good link

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Wednesday January 27, 2010 @02:36PM

    The people who brought you the study on vacant properties in the state last week (to re-cap 302,625 vacant properties plus 49,000 vacant holiday homes) have now done a study into Ghost Estates. Whilst not intending to forecast future housing demand, there have been statements along the lines of there being 3-5 years worth of housing in Dublin and around 10 years elsewhere. It is unclear how the study is viewing future population growth in particular emigration and immigration.

    NAMA has the first loans in front of it and the rumour is that the first 17bn will be paid out next month. This might give an indication of how NAMA is valuing residential property and may give a pointer to developers who are apparently hoarding upto 170,000 homes waiting for the market to improve.

    For those saying there is a pent-up demand for homes, remember that if there are indeed 2.8 people per household in the state then even if there were 350,000 waiting to buy, that would still only use up the vacant properties presently on the market.

    The 170,000 properties held in reserve would house another 500,000 people.

    How low will prices go this year?

    The link to the latest NIRSA research on Ghost Estates is here

    http://irelandafternama.wordpress.com/2010/01/27/ghost-estates-per-county/#comment-404

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Timbo Date: Thursday January 28, 2010 @10:46AM

    It is only three weeks ago that Sherry Fitzgerald told us the pace of decline in house prices was reducing with Q4 of 2009 down only 4% compared to over 9% in Q1 of 2009. The news from today's IT is of property price drops of up to 65% from peak. And indeed this comes after ESRI/PTSB issued their actual sale price statistics for Q4 of 2009 that clearly showed the pace of decline in prices is accelerating and for the month of December 2009 alone was a 3.6% drop.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2010/0128/1224263284382.html?via=mr

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: David Date: Sunday January 31, 2010 @09:03AM

    In fairness Timbo the ESRI/PTSB did not issue their actual sale price statistics as they don't have any. Their research is based on actual mortgages drawn down over the period so the research is as flawed as any other avialable market research out there at the moment. An interesting thought on the ESRI Data is that with lower LTV's and buyers saving large cash deposits as a carrot for sellers, is that it is probably very difficult to ascertain sale prices from the mortgages drawn down

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: david Date: Monday February 1, 2010 @04:25PM

    an interesting aside about the rental market, having just let 3 apartments over the last 10 days, all of them for more than their last rent. These are situated right in the city centre in cork, all went within 24 hours of the advert being posted on daft. Granted they are spacious apartments in niche developments but I was shocked at the quick turnaround, I left the ads run for a few days so I could do my own market research, it all came down to location and quality, judging by the huge response, people are at last realising the true value of location. The good houses and apartments in good locations have bottomed out, the shrewd will now begin to realise this, theres not to many great areas and usually not to many available units in them, they usually managed to avoid high density developments being foisted on them. There has never been a better time, I fully realise that nobody wants to be the last person to pay to much, the converse of this is that somebody is going to be the last person to a bargain.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Monday February 8, 2010 @12:40AM

    Good location? two floors up I take it, lest the ESB wreck the place again!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: david Date: Monday February 15, 2010 @06:17PM

    Certainly a lot of house prices will drop a lot further, a hell of a lot further, but not in the good areas of the large population centres where the constants of employment prevail ie Third level education, Health, Retail, Services and Leisure. Where the value of easy commutes will be appreciated not just in monetary terms but also in time and quality of life.
    Just a few figures from Daft Sales.
    Galway City; 168 units for sale, Ballinasloe; 486 units, Loughrea; 438 units for sale. This means that there are more than 5 times the amount of units for sale in Ballinasloe and Loughrea than there are in Galway City.
    Cork City; 246 units for sale. Mallow; 659, Charleville; 246, Macroom; 215,
    Its the same story around the country. These houses will remain vacant and unsold, wrong buildings wrong places wrong time, nobody will ever want them.
    246 units in Cork City is not a huge amount, same for 168 in Galway.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday February 11, 2010 @10:32PM

    What planet is this man living on ireland will have no growth just deflation and many more unemployed as much as 20%. So the real price of a home in real terms according to moodys is the following if valued at 300 k in 2010 its price should be 90k so please wake up with no growth no jobs no lending just a downword spiral and as ireland is a little broke nation on the edge of europe that was living in a dream for a decade now with 350 thousand yes i did say thousand homes unsold when will you guys wake up to reality. Ireland or Dublin for that matter is not Manhattan or Paris is a small broke village in real trouble so save your cash as home prices will collapse to proper value down 80% from 2007 levels..

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Sunday February 14, 2010 @03:38AM

    Well listen im just a little old prospective buyer down here in the west and my thinking is that at this stage of the game one is bettter of to sit it out for bit longer. look even if property does start to go up it will be prity slow so i for one wouid rather pay little a bit more for a house in climbing market than twise what it will be worth in two yers time. my opininion is that it will fall alot more for the simple reason that there wont be same volume of buyers into the future , the investers are gone for long time, houses will be bought by peopie who want to live in them and are lucky enough to have a job to pay for it. Mind if you still insist on buying now be ruthless , if the estate agent doesnt laugh at your first offer than youve just offered to much , remember that the price of a house is determined by the buyer ,its only worth what you are some body is willing to give and there lies the difference between now and the boom theres probably no one else bidding!!!!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Patrick Date: Tuesday February 16, 2010 @10:46AM

    As the ESRI were one of the organisations who either didn't, wouldn't or couldn't report on the real situation during the downturn in the Irish Economy, I would take their future projections on the Irish Economy with the same level of disbelief that I take Asking prices for houses at the moment.

    Have a look at the Board of the ESRI - http://www.esri.ie/about_us/the_institute/governance/council/

    some of these people were on Bank Boards and ran Civil Service Departments during the time that the Economic collapse was occurring, and sat (or were sat upon by their political masters) on their hands. The economic fundamentals are sound..........

    And they're to be respected?

    Please. Give me a break. NOTHING the ESRI ever says again should be believed, until new faces populate the Council. Only Fools and vested interests will believe what these highly paid, poliltically connected people say.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Anthony Date: Monday February 22, 2010 @05:50PM

    Long may the housing price decline continue.

    I've saved my euros for years and was never tempted to purchase a 1 bed ground floor shoe box for 400,000. Quite simply those who did make such purchases are idiots and must live with their mistakes and stop moaning.

    I'll buy for 500,000 what someone stupidly paid 900,000 for.

    Get over it!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Sean Date: Monday May 24, 2010 @04:44PM

    Anthony,
    You may be able to knock another 100K off that, even more, who knows, prices will be going down Big Time.....has to happen....

    Sean.

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Mrbee Date: Thursday March 25, 2010 @01:57AM

    +1 on the above message.. I been saving my pennies.. and i'll wait for the right price
    I am going to look at a semi 2 bed bungalow in kildare tomorrow.. its on market for region 200k . i'll put an offer of 160k lets see if i get laughed at. and to be honest the 160k offer will put it between 3- 4 times my household income.

    lets get realistic about irish housing, its not built to last anyway..

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: vinnie Date: Tuesday April 27, 2010 @12:43PM

    Ireland WILL default on its sovereign debt in 2010.

    Watch the next few months, and then interest rates WILL be in double digits.

    Thats when the fireworks will begin.

    Falls in excess of 50% WILL occur.

    Dont buy!!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Saturday August 21, 2010 @09:32PM

    What a bunch of idiots that paid those prices for houses - i hope they drop and I end up buying with my savings all the posh totties who purchased and sneered at the rest of us!

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: Stephen Date: Tuesday September 7, 2010 @08:54AM

    Ever heard of Karma??

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  • Re: The Daft House Price Report Q4 2009

    Posted By: michael g, mclaughlin Date: Thursday September 16, 2010 @06:39PM

    Well, it is now late 2010 and reading the articles, well...the author was bit too rosey in his outlook, and he was wrong. The housing outlook looks bleak. As soon as NAMA (the holding company with all the bad loans from the banks) starts foreclosing there will be a gnashing of teeth. Elections in 2012? No, I see 2011. The Irish will now pay their pub tab for years of economic and foolish merrymaking just like the yanks. Praying may help. St Jude is the saint of the impossible for the record.

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