Strong rental growth points to stabilising property markets

Ronan Lyons, Economist

20th Aug 2007

Ronan Lyons, Daft's in-house economist, commenting on the latest Daft research on the Irish property market.

With high rates of home ownership and a booming economy, it is understandable that much of the focus in the past few years, when it came to the property market, was on house prices. The last six months have seen a shift, though, and the spotlight is well and truly on the rental sector. And while soaring house prices had been grabbing all the headlines, the rental market was also entering uncharted territory. Rents have risen in both absolute and year-on-year terms each quarter since late 2004. Recently, the pace at which rents have been rising reached record speed. As shown in the last Daft Rental report, the first quarter of 2007 saw rent increases of 10.8% compared to the same period in 2006. In the second quarter this figure increased to 12.4%

Meanwhile, all commentators agree that, when looked at in month-on-month or year-on-year terms, the house price boom is over, something fans of the Daft report have known since mid-2006, when asking price inflation started to slow dramatically. With house prices now static, all eyes are on the rental market to see what next for Ireland's property market. A healthy rental sector that absorbed a shift in supply from sales to letting would reassure people of the fundamentals and steady the nerves. A faltering rental sector, though, with rapidly rising inventories and tumbling rents, would not augur well for house prices over the next two to three years.

June rents mark new high
The average annual increase in rents in Q2 was 12.4%, more than twice the figure for the same period in 2006 (5.8%). June in particular marks a spike in rents sought by landlords where average rents where at the highest level ever since we start recording rental figures in 2001. The increase in rents during the second quarter was more or less across the board, with only two areas not showing sustained growth, Dublin's commuter towns, where rents dipped slightly, and Connacht/Ulster outside of Galway city, where they were static.

Excess of supply in Dublin's commuter towns
The fall in average rents in Dublin's commuter towns (Celbridge, Naas, Leixlip, Bray, Maynooth and Greystones) is particularly acute for one and two bedroom properties. In addition to falling rents and a glut of properties for sale in these areas, figures from the accommodation sharing market indicate that average income from letting a room fell in these towns. This indicates both an excess of supply generally in these areas and - more importantly - better value substitutes, either cheaper properties further out or properties at the same price closer to town. The fact that this is only happening in Dublin's commuter towns, and is not more widespread, more than likely says more about relative shifts in supply than an overall weakness in the market.

Rents 'hit a wall'
In Dublin city, while rents are still high, there are signs from the July figures that rents have fallen back in certain segments, particularly the key markets of Dublin City Centre and South Dublin County. Rents continue to rise, though, in the cheaper markets of North Dublin City - up 2.2% in July - and North Dublin County - up 1.2% in July. This indicates that in the rental market - just as can be seen in the sales market - affordability is now the key. The gap between Dublin City Centre rents and North Dublin City rents used to be consistently over €250 but in July fell below €200. Similarly, the premium enjoyed by Dublin City Centre over other areas, including South Dublin City, fell in July, suggesting that rents in the capital may have 'hit a wall' in terms of affordability: if asked to pay above a certain amount to live in the city centre, people would rather move slightly further out and pay less.

Affordability still key
As noted above, Dublin's commuter towns have been affected in all three property markets - sales, lettings and accommodation sharing. Part of the explanation may lie in the growing popularity of West Dublin, from new developments around the M50 to new interest in established suburbs such as Mulhuddart. The average net loan burden - i.e. the monthly mortgage repayment, after deductions for interest relief and taking into account income from accommodation sharing - for a three-bedroom property in the area is just over €1,000, where a double-room is shared. This is more than €100 cheaper than North County Dublin, the next cheapest area and - significantly - is still cheaper than Dublin's commuter towns. Not surprisingly, then, West Dublin offers the greatest expected yield in the country, at just under 4%.

Overall, rental inflation looks to have peaked - and more than likely, so have rents, as the bounds of tenants' ability to pay have been reached. With interest rates back at normal levels, demand has contracted and people are looking very closely at what they can afford. On the supply side, housing completions have been at record levels and there are more secondhand properties for sale now on Daft than ever before. Therefore, there has never been greater competition among sellers for buyers' attention. Therefore, static house prices are to be expected and, given rates of inflation generally, falls in real house prices are on the cards for 2007 and possibly 2008. In the long run, though, this is perfectly normal behaviour, as the market looks to correct the yield.

With such strong rental growth for the first half it is difficult to see any problems occuring in the rental market for the forseeable future. However, should rents start to falter in 2008, a recovery in the property market may take longer than expected. Watch this space!


HIGHLIGHTS:

The Daft.ie National Rent Index
The Daft.ie National Rent Index


SNAPSHOT:

Snapshot
Average rents across Ireland in Aug 2007

Discuss This Article

  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: liam Date: Monday August 20, 2007 @10:40AM

    These are just asking price for rents for new lets. Any property that is reasonably priced is letted out quite quickly and has little chance of making the report. I just moved recently and the place was on daft.ie for 2 weeks priced reasonably so did not sit for long and did not make the report.
    There are plenty of properties that are asking high rents which just stay on the website and get picked up by this report. The gasworks in D4 is a prime example , the asking price for rents are high but the place is empty? I pass by every so often . Ask your friends are they paying 8-10 percent more than last year . I did here is the poll . http://www.thepropertypin.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=2821

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: The Report Team Date: Tuesday August 21, 2007 @08:57AM

    Hi and thanks for your post and your interest in the report. The method used in the report actually picks up all properties, no matter how long or short they stay on the website, and not just those that are there at month's end. Hopefully, that allays your concerns,
    The Report Team.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Cormac Date: Thursday December 6, 2007 @11:45PM

    "There are only three types of people: those who make things happen, those who watch things happen and those who wonder what happened"

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: liam Date: Monday August 20, 2007 @03:22PM

    Is this a joke?

    Your index says rents were 123.6 in June and 116.7 in July .

    That means they are coming down not going up. Just 1 percent higher than Jnauary 2002,

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: John Geraghty - Economist Date: Monday August 20, 2007 @07:50PM

    The only valid growth is year on year growth because rents will always fluctuate for seasonal reasons. Therefore the year on year growth (when you compare July 07 with July 06) is 8.96% ((116.7/107.9)-1)*100).

    What is interesting about this index is that the index spiked in June to 123.6, probably caused by over-enthusiastic increases by landlords and fell back in july as properties did not rent for the higher values.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Ricky Date: Monday August 20, 2007 @03:23PM

    Increase in unemployment(housing starts decrease, completions delayed indefinitely) and emigration of non nationals will not be visible in stats until end of Sept resulting in oversupply,lower rents and continued downside for house prices.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Paul Date: Monday August 20, 2007 @10:42PM

    Don,t think so ricky,the index spiked in june ie when it should have went the opposite way due to the increase in vacant properties as colleges closed for summer.We are allready hearing about the deficit in accomodation,which will be exaserbated in sept when colleges reopen further driving rents upwards.
    Investors staying out of market due to falling prices will result in a bigger shortfall going forward.Immigration continues to be strong as the construction sector starts to concentrate on commercial and infrastructure projects.
    Essentially rents will continue to increase and defy the naysayers who have predicted a collapse of biblical proportions leaving investors on the side of the road with nothing but the cloithes on their back!I don,t think so!!!!!!!!!

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Ricky Date: Tuesday August 21, 2007 @12:17PM

    Census 2006-260,000 plus unoccupied dwellings plus 90,000
    built since then,only 52,000 sat leaving certificate(points race over),spike in rents June as investors belatedly put up properties for sale in vain hope of offloading same cf spike in properties for sale on daft in June,realisation sinking that no buyers so in September same properties will be up for rent creating an oversupply and falling rents,residential construction sites countywide are either going to receivership or in process of closing with related workers heading to Germany and Holland who this year have now granted access to Eastern European workers.Financial services meltdown in Dublin 1 due to subprime fiasco and related job losses-it would appear that we in Europe have financed the housing and consumer spending party in USA cf high profile German banks in trouble-it will be recognised as the greatest con trick ever to have happpened-who could believe that one country could offload such debt with such ease!!.It is a pity that the Irish banks did not avail of same-ie sharing our excesses with the more prudent German and Dutch

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Paul Date: Tuesday August 21, 2007 @07:44PM

    Sure Ricky,no investor would evict tenants or clear a property while it is on the market and would instead wait untill it went to at least sale agreed,at which point he can legally evict tenants so that argument for june spike in rents is complete BS.
    Can you please fill us all in on the job losses and meltdown in the IFSC?The opposite is in fact the case with most of the major stakeholdes in the IFSC actually hiring people.
    52,000 sat leaving cert??So what,over 100,000 entered the country last year and this year is on target to surpass that figure as the services sector of the economy expands to take some of the slack from the construction sector.
    260,000 vacant units??Most of the reputable commentators are questioning the accuracy of this figure and the supposed 12% of which are holiday homes with a separate study showing that 400,000 visits are made by iris people annually to holiday homes within ireland.These figures do not tally up at all.And while i have to admit that there are a huge amount of vacant units,it must be pointed out that a lot of these are in the likes of leitrim,longford etc,tax incentive areas etc.Dublin remains under supplied as is evidenced by the turnover period for rental units at the moment ie inside a week,unbelievable demand.
    Apart from the site in kilkenny that was publisiced by the indo will you enlighten us as to which other sites have closed,particularly in Dublin?? BOI repossessed 2 houses last year!They are after all our biggest mortgage lender!Ye guys are buying into all the hype about the COLLAPSE et al and swallowing it hook line and sinker.Cop yourself on,after all these people have been foretelling this BS for years and been wrong every time.
    Investors are no longer entering the market to provide accomodation and are now sitting back laughing,having allready trousered huge capital appreciation they are now getting the benefit of a 12% annual increase in rents,with more to come in an era of still cheap finance!!
    Buy a house or two mate and don,t get sucked into the BS of the naysayers who have caused thousands of people to miss the boat in the last decade

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Steven Date: Tuesday August 21, 2007 @02:47PM

    I think you're ignoring one obvious explanation for the June rent "spike" and subsequent drop in July. A lot of first time buyers were holding off buying until after the election, in order to see what the incoming government would do about stamp duty. This blockage restricted the availablity of rental properties to let, thus temporarily driving up rents. Now that this issue has been addressed, first timers have started buying again, freeing up more properties, and rents have eased.

    What odds will you offer that August's rents won't dip again? Roll on the property meltdown!

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Paul Date: Wednesday August 22, 2007 @12:16AM

    Will give you any odds you want as have let 1 of my own apts at a 15% increase on the previous years level ie 3% premium on daft reports 12% increase.It is at this point that actual involvement in the market and not relying on hearsay,naysayers and the papers that really counts.
    It appears that yiou are another of the muppets awaiting the market meltdown "predicted" for so long and apparently not forthcoming!!!!!
    Go forth and buy my son,and quick before prices start rising again!

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: lowbridge Date: Tuesday August 21, 2007 @04:39PM

    High rents!!! People need to work more. Nobody's can afford anymore working part time. we all need to work more. that means less jobs. all the money go to the property market. nothing to develop the country, nobody can spend more, the market doesnt work good. this is the last year of economy fretility. the unemployment has risen again and next 3 years ireland will be in the same level of italy. a country with no more oportunities and high unemployment. if this goverment dont face this problem this year will be the last one. less people anymore choose ireland as the place to live and more imigrants are moving to uk, sweeden and norway. congratulations landlords and politicians. briliant!!!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Grammar Date: Wednesday August 22, 2007 @01:11PM

    I am frankly amazed at the poor grammar and spelling in many of these messages. Paul in particular, if you are to keep posting messages at least have the courtesy to check your spelling and stop confusing an apostrophy with a comma.
    It's difficult to take your comments seriously when your command of language is so poor.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Paul Date: Thursday August 23, 2007 @08:07PM

    Indeed!!!

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Paul Date: Saturday August 25, 2007 @10:41AM

    It's difficult to take your comments seriously Grammer when you appear to be pedantic in the extreme!

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Wednesday August 22, 2007 @09:58AM

    Very informative and nice article giving an insight into housing rental market. Thanks !

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Muppet Date: Wednesday August 22, 2007 @04:41PM

    Well Paul,

    Sounds like your whistling past the graveyard to me. Obviously, you're going to try and talk up the market as you're involved in it and stand to lose your shirt if and when it all falls apart. Either that or you're an estate agent plant .......

    It may come as something of a shock to you, but not everyone is obsessed with becoming part of a new landlord class. Some of us just want to live in decent affordable accommodation.

    By the way, owning a flat or two doesn't prove you know anything about the economy - it just means you've jumped on a bandwagon. I've bought the odd lottery ticket but it doesn't mean I'm an expert on the gambling industry.

    I look forward to reading more of your trenchant analysis after the next Daft report ...

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Paul Date: Wednesday August 22, 2007 @06:11PM

    I bet you do Muppet

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Paul Date: Saturday August 25, 2007 @10:40AM

    Well Muppet
    Sounds like you too have bought into the hype about the famous "collapse that commentators like David McWilliams have talked about and predicted for 10 years or more now(and been wrong every time). Obviously, you're going to try and talk down the market as its fairly obvious that you are a non homeowner and not involved in the market,and are one of the many naysayers who have been biding their time for 10 years or more waiting for the famous collapse to happen before you enter the market.

    By the way,not owning a flat or two doesn't prove you know anything about the economy - it just means you've missed the boat as you spent too much time listening to muppets like McWilliams and did,nt jump on the bandwagon.

    I look forward to reading some of your trenchant analysis after the next Daft report as you failed to offer any for this report!

    • Reply to this message
  • Q

    Posted By: DeeGee Date: Saturday August 25, 2007 @06:35PM

    In reply to Mr. Know It All Paul riddle me this - Why did a letter to last Thursdays Irish Times property section (23rd Aug) Question & Answer colum ask for advice on what to do about their house in Dublin which they put up for sale in May and to date has received minimum interest and two offers - one 30% below the asking price and one 25%. These people are moving and need to sell. For example if the house they are selling is worth 600,000 (and what dog box in Dublin is not ) - it means they are being offered between 420,000 and 450,000 for the house. Paintful or what ? And if the price is over 600,000 - my but I can feel their pain ! According to you, the naysayers, begrudgers, David McWilliams etc who are talking the market down are failing miserably - property is the King and every day will be Christmas by and by ! Rents are rising (incidentially properties I manage in Dublin City centre have only risen to where they were in August 2002 - after falling for 3 years) What would you say to these people ??? The same as the Irish Times Property editor (who is one of the vested interests in the property market - they have to bulk up that property supplement after all) Would you tell them to wait - accept neither offer and everything will come right - come September ! Get real Paul there are thousands of houses for sale - some since last year. Here in Bray houses that went for sale in April asking 1.3 million are now down to 1.1 million and still not selling........ Tell me this you great brain of ireland 2002 what percentage is a drop of 200,000 on 1.3 million ??? By the way your 15% increase is only attained through re-letting your property. If the tenant had stayed and you are registered with the P.R.T.B. (Private Residential Tenancies Board for the uninitiated) you could only increase the rent in line with inflation i.e. 5%. With property prices static and falling - 5% rent increase will not cover those people who bought in 2005 at extortionist prices and who have had 8 interest rate increases since then (even on an interest only loan). Those people are being hammered.) No doubt you will apply your Solomen-like wisdom to all the above and come back with a mindboggling reply.

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  • Re: Q

    Posted By: Paul Date: Wednesday August 29, 2007 @05:58PM

    Actually you are wrong Deegee.Under the PRTB a landlord is entitled to increase his rent annually,but only up to the market rent.So a 12% increase this year could not be disputed by sitting tenant.
    Please attain the facts befiore portraying your flippant statements as fact.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: JERRY Date: Sunday August 26, 2007 @09:06PM

    hi readers.i am orginally from ireland now living in the u.s. and really enjoy reading all your messages.i find some of them quite comical. my view looking from the outside in is that ireland is in for a sharp decline in property prices which have begun a number of months ago. i not a pessimist, i just look at the numbers. there are houses on daft which are for sale for over 6 months and have been reduced by between 10-30% so who can say that house prices are not declining. the numbers dont lie.that is just the start of the downturn. look what is happening in the mortgage market in the u.s. 100%-106% financing given to first time home buyers which is fine in a rising market but with the downturn in prices having started last year people are walking away from their property because they have no equity and the house is worth less than they paid and their payments rising, where is the incentive to pay. to put it in a nutshell, the easy credit is finished.no more 100% loans.hence less buyers in an already depressed market.the banks were able to sell on the loans they made,thats why they were so lax on lending standards.the goverment stepped in to save the banks from collasping because they held so many bad loans on their books.noboddy wanted to buy them because house prices were going south. all you have to do is watch the numbers which come out on wall st. what happens here happens there.dont get sucked into the property hype now.watch the numbers!

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  • Answer to Paul

    Posted By: Cris Date: Tuesday August 28, 2007 @02:14PM

    I am a property owner and I do not believe at the market meltdown, but I am frankly amazed at the arrogance of the tones used py Paul in all his interventions. I am convinced that this property booming had socially a very deep impact. Property talking has almost become part of our daily life and you can see how shallow and greedy people have become. Paul, your comments only prove that you are one of the few greedy landlords which live constantly with the only purpose in life of increasing their gains.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: Answer to Paul

    Posted By: gerry Date: Thursday September 6, 2007 @02:26AM

    well said paul.the talk of property has taken over a lot of peoples lives in ireland.i live in america, originally from the south east of ireland. i go back twice a year and i am amazed at how people just talk about how much this person is worth or that fella or worse how much their property is worth.who cares! i "own" property in new york and ireland. when i say "own" i really mean the bank owns it ,well most of it and i am just like a tenant paying rent for the next 12 years then i can say OWN, MINE!! my dear people you dont own till you pay the mortgage off in full. with people getting 106% mortgages and switching from 25 to 35 and 40 year mortgages it will be a long time before a lot of people can say OWN,,MINE,,!!!

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Holger Date: Tuesday September 11, 2007 @06:07PM

    well I don`t like this policy to keep the prices high by leaving whole estates empty - can`t see the point - well sure it is nice for the landlords this way but it is poison for the economy as a whole because this money is not available and a nightmare for all tenants - it is simply the wrong way to go but well it won`t change as it seems - there is this new estate close to Trim - wonder when they will offer normal prices

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Jack Date: Sunday September 30, 2007 @10:22PM

    Does the index take note of rental price acheived? We have been looking around for about the last month or so and have never offered the asking price for a property. We have had our offers accepted and have landed a prime property at a reasonable discounted rent. Property in D4 is liable to a discount of at least 300-500 on the asking price. If the discount is not given the property just sits there. Does the index include a time to let? Our experience is that 'real' prices are softening as demand and ability to pay is weakening. I could provide the link to dozens of properties on daft.ie that have been sitting on the site for 3 months or so. Unfortunately, it looks like the agents have automatic upload programmes that constantly refresh the last updated date on a listing to make a property look 'new'. Is this the case? What is the prognosis for BTL as the scores of new developments reach completion this autumn? Take a drive along the N11 - heaps of apartments coming on stream. Drive up to Malahide and the Northern Cross masses of apartments. I heard there are 8000 vacant apartments in Liverpool - what's the vacancy figure for Dublin? But, as asset prices fall then rental yields do improve - so every cloud does have a silver lining - unless you bought at the peak of the market...

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Holger Date: Friday October 5, 2007 @08:42AM

    @Jack

    I can confirm that - I check daft on a daily basis for lettings in Ratoath, Dunshauglin, Navan, Trim and Kells - the offers are refreshed regurlarly for more than 50% of all property that is currently on offer - really looking forward to the next weeks and months

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: howzat Date: Tuesday November 13, 2007 @09:34PM

    I wonder will the next rental report address the HUGE increase in rental stock in the last months. DAFT.ie now shows a doubling of rental stock since March/April 2007.

    A doubling of rental stock. Twice as many houses for rent. 100% increase in supply.

    • Reply to this message
  • Re: The Daft Rental Report August 2007

    Posted By: Cormac Date: Thursday December 6, 2007 @11:44PM

    It appears this debate is involving 3 types of people. It is good to talk and analyse and talk doom and gloom. But alas if we spend more time doing and less time glooming then it will become clear that there will always be opportunity! Regardless of the up or downturn.

    Its both up and down to us to find those opportunities, and lets face it this is fact whether or not I can spell

    For me this quote explains it best:

    "There are only three types of people: those who make things happen, those who watch things happen and those who wonder what happened"

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