A Tale of Two Irelands

Philip O'Sullivan, Business & Finance magazine's Markets Correspondent

15th Nov 2011

Philip O'Sullivan is a financial analyst, Business & Finance magazine's Markets Correspondent and an MBA student at the Smurfit Business School in UCD.

At a headline level, the national picture of Ireland's rental market is one of continued stability, with rents rising by 0.1% in Q3 2011 relative to the previous quarter. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter without a decline, which is a remarkable outturn given the difficult economic backdrop. Another encouraging point from the latest Daft.ie figures is the data on the stock of properties available for rent. At the beginning of November this stood at 15,948 a 9.3% decline on year-earlier levels and the second lowest level of rental properties advertised on Daft.ie since the third quarter of 2008.

While the national picture is reasonably encouraging, there are significant regional variances, with urban areas outperforming rural ones. While rents eased back slightly (-0.3%) during the quarter in both Dublin and Cork, they are still in positive year-on-year territory, rising by 0.8% and 6.2% respectively. In terms of the other cities, Galway (+0.4%), Limerick (+0.3%) and Waterford (+1.2%) all recorded quarterly increases in rents.

The picture for rural Ireland is somewhat different, with rents in all four provinces declining by between 1.7% and 3.1% compared to the same period last year. More ominously for these areas, the decline in the stock of available properties for rent has been largely concentrated in the main cities. On November 1, there were 11,100 properties available to rent outside of the main cities, down only 5% from a year previously. This compares with a fall of about 18% in the stock of properties available to rent in Ireland's major urban areas over the same period.

What does this all mean in terms of the outlook for the rental market? In short, it appears to be "A Tale of Two Irelands". The housing dynamics for urban areas look decidedly rosier than for their rural counterparts. Supply, as measured by stock, is tightening in the main cities, with available rental properties in Dublin having fallen by 57% since the peak in 2009. In contrast, despite rents in rural areas having fallen by between 20% (Connacht) and 29% (the Dublin commuter belt) from the peak, there remains a large overhang of available properties which will likely put downward pressure on rents for many quarters to come.

The "Two Irelands" narrative is further supported by the data on rental yields. The average rental yield in Dublin city centre is a chunky 7.2%. That is the type of figure that will surely flush out some investor interest, but of course translating this interest into buying action will not be straightforward given the availability and cost of credit. While the national average (which includes Dublin) rental yield of 4.8% has increased by 70 basis points in the past year, yields in many areas remain too low to attract investors, as illustrated by the "Rent-a-room income and net loan burden" table on page 10.

Moving beyond the data compiled by Daft.ie, while the overall rental market has proven resilient in spite of challenging economic conditions over the past year, there are no signs of a let-up in these pressures in the near term. The government's recently published Medium-Term Fiscal Statement illustrates this in two ways. Firstly, the Department of Finance (DoF) cut its GDP growth forecast for 2012 from the previous 2.5% to 1.6%. As with the Daft.ie figures, the devil is in the detail, with a positive GDP headline rate masking the fact that this growth will be driven by multinational-dominated net exports, with domestic demand (the sum of private consumption, government consumption and investment) set to contract by 1% next year. So, the domestic economy is unlikely to provide much by way of support to the property market in the near term.

The second challenge, as illustrated by the government's budgetary plans, is that between now and 2015 Minister Noonan intends to introduce €4.65bn in what are euphemistically termed "revenue raising measures", while cutting €7.75bn in public spending. This fiscal consolidation, which totals just under 10% of Ireland's GNP, will place a further burden on the wider property market over the coming years as disposable incomes come under more pressure.

Of course, as a small open economy we cannot ignore the gloomy outlook for our key trading partners. The US, UK and Euro-zone are, like ourselves, all struggling with low growth, unsustainable fiscal deficits and a lack of obvious near-term catalysts for a meaningful recovery. Granted, their troubles are a key factor behind recent downward revisions to growth estimates, such as the DoF's, for the Irish economy, but with the risks to growth in our major export markets seemingly skewed to the downside, any further deterioration would have clear implications for Ireland's economic prospects. And as the economy goes, so goes the housing market.

Tying it all together, while rents, in aggregate, have been levelling off, there is some divergence at a regional level. A difficult growth outlook, with continued high levels of emigration and unemployment, allied to a large surplus of rental properties, bodes ill for rents in rural areas. In contrast, in the cities, tightening supply – only a third of available rental properties in Ireland listed on Daft.ie on November 1 were located in Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Waterford and Galway – and elevated yields suggests that there is rather less 'downside risk' to rents in those areas. Overall, the divergence between the rental markets in urban and rural Ireland is a theme that looks set to continue over the coming year.


Rental Index
Rental Price Index

Stock and flow of properties
Stock and Flow of Rental Properties


Snapshot of Asking Rental Prices Nationwide
Snapshot of Rents Nationwide

Discuss This Article

  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: NAMAwinelake Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @08:04AM

    Well done to DAFT.ie for spending the time and money producing the report from its extensive database of asking prices and to Philip for analysing the data and producing an interesting commentary.

    The use of yields in a property market which is still adjusting to the crash that started in 2007 is questionable. WHat does it mean to have a 7.2% yield when the underlying property is dropping by 10%+ in value per year? Yields which are helpful in normal markets arguably have no real place when the market is undergoing such adjustment.

    And it's not just property values that are adjusting. It is indeed true that rents have remained more or less flat since the start of 2010, that is 23 months ago but they have remained flat just slightly north of rent assistance levels. These levels are set to be lowered in three weeks time at Budget 2012 and the betting is that the private market will follow the new rent levels down. There is oversupply of rental property, there is no cartel of landlords and there are very few large private landlords in the State and wages and income are still coming under pressure. Rents are still 50% higher in Dublin than in Belfast. So the rent part of the yield calculation may come in for adjustment also.

    BTW, the DAFT.ie survey is based on asking prices. The PTRB won't release actual rental levels, but the CSO has a monthly survey of actual levels from agents around the country and that informs the monthly inflation figures and they too say that rents are stabilising and indeed are up by 2% since the start of this year.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: carmel Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @08:44PM

    Rents in Cork are up by over 6 per cent.

    How come there is not more news made of this statistic?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Paulo Date: Sunday January 15, 2012 @03:03PM

    I refer to an article on page 2 of The Sunday Times by Sarah McInerney in which she quotes Mr Ronan Lyons Daft Economist and I am hoping that Mr Lyons could expand more on the suggestions that the Government is artificially inflating the market rent by its rental allowance schemes. Quoted also that Mr lyons suggests the Government should go further than reducing allowances to the market rent and reduce allowances to below market rent. Can he explain what he means by his interpretation of what the market rent should be and how it appears he has supreme knowledge as to what the market rent of all properties in Ireland is or should be.
    We are very fortunate to have an economist employed by DAFT who is suggesting that rents are inflated and he might ask the opinion of the thousands of Landlords who are the main contributors to the turnover and profitability of DAFT. I am a paying client of Daft since its inception and am perplexed as to how this ST article has been contributed to by DAFT and its Agents.
    I welcome other Landlords to read this article and comment/discuss it further.

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  • Who is manipulating the figures and what is their agenda?

    Posted By: Michael Webb Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @09:32AM

    Whereas it is admirable thaat DAFT are spending money commisioning the research and publishing the quarterly reports I notice that the indiceds as published today are different to those published previously. Surely we are using the same base? Were they inaccurate before or now? Is there an agenda?

    Month Index (as per Q2, 2011) Index (as per Q3, 2011)

    January 75.3 74.1
    February 76.4 75.2
    March 76.1 74.9
    April 76.4 75.3
    May 75.8 74.6
    June 75.6 74.4
    July 75.9 74.7
    August 76.3
    September 75.9
    October 75.5

    Thought the margin of error is less than 2% of the base (2007) can we trust the interpidation. The historic numbers should not change.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Gussy Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @09:44AM

    The report is all about ASKING PRICE, so all we can gather from this report is that asking price is rising. Could this be attributed to landlords having to pay higher interest on their mortgages, perhaps.
    It's also interesting to note that inventory is down, could this be attributed to Gov. sitting on tens of thousands of empty properties, at might I add the taxpayers expense, and manipulating the true picture.

    Overall this report amounts to little more than an excercise in wishful thinking.

    Good luck come budget day.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Kevin Young Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @10:54AM

    Thanks Phillip/DAFT - in the absence of any government data on this we need guys like you. This data is important especially for people with rental properties. Also very valuable for renters re-negotiating contracts like me.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: adrian Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @03:08PM

    dead cat bounce,when dept of social welfare cut rent allowance we may finally see true rental prices!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: John Burton Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @04:47PM

    Yayy lets believe the property sector again!
    The only way is up!
    Now Joan Burton musn't cut rent allowance.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Realist Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @05:37PM

    Net net I believe that the export orientated jobs are being created near cities, pharma, technology, financial services. These are typically above average pay and this demand is leading to reduced supply in the city locations. Just look at the commercial property report, a lot of the prime new build (good location stock) is moving (at much lower rents) and locked in at favourable long term leases, add in the very generous corporate tax regime (see story today of some corps only paying an effective rate of 4%) and you can see the attraction of Ireland (primarily its cities) for FDI (now top 1 or 2 in the world for Return on Investment ROI). The process of shifting our economy from relatively low skill construction jobs to high end international services is accelerating and the trend will continue. I believe we are in a transitional phase for the country and a lot of companies are locking in very favourable terms for themselves as a result of this crisis, and this just happens to benefit the residential letting market in cities

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Joseph Glynn Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @06:47PM

    The DAFT Rental Report is utterly meaningless except as a service to buy to let landlords who need the collective reassurance of a distortion and misrepresentation of the true average rents as they reap 40% or more of the incomes of the low paid, of welfare recipients and of those trapped in substandard bedsits, in damp cottages or in a bedroom in a 'shared' flat or house

    DAFT reassures landlords and their political and media target audience that the market has 'stabilized' even as smart young people emigrate, students forego college, housing lists lengthen, and government hoards the surplus stock off the market in NAMA to prop up still-inflated rents and sales prices at taxpayers expense. Now government and the property sector looks to charities and hostels to alleviate hardship among the victims of their orgy of build/buy-to-let speculation. Ireland's housing crisis has become permanent, the vital support of our 'republic for rent'.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: David Date: Wednesday November 16, 2011 @05:30PM

    Indeed Joesph. Are you by any chance 1 of the Crusties living up at the Central Bank or Eyre Sq??

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: David Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @07:25PM

    Unbelievable! When "Asking Prices" are trending downwards they are taken as accurate yet when they start trending upwards their validity is questioned. Some people are very very selective with the available data, notwithstanding the fact that the CSO data concurs with the Daft reports findings and also considering that their has been consistent downward movement in the stock of available units over the last couple of months.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: open tweet Date: Thursday November 17, 2011 @09:12AM


    You use the CSO as a paradigm of virtue and correctness in relation to the concurrence of their date to that supplied by Daft.ie. Would it do any good to point out to you that the CSO has not been correct with any of its estimations over the past three years; neither has it provided valued or reliable data about the sources of its information.

    It is true to say that the central statistics office continued its mantra that there were signs or an early recovery in the Irish business markets up to and including one year ago.

    Their last report on the stabilisation of the property market in Ireland drew criticism from several foreign ratings agencies.

    Indeed, it was this continued criticism that prompted a renewed review of the idea of having a centralised reporting structure which could provide reliable and accurate details on actual selling prices for properties rather than the rather vague system that exists at the moment.

    If the CSO was in any way accurate with its figures, why would this new database be necessary?

    Keep dreaming. Maybe your property is built on an oil deposit. That’s the only realistic way your property is going to go up in value at the moment.


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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: David Date: Thursday November 17, 2011 @04:24PM

    If you actually read my post OT you would see that I did not "use the CSO as a paradigm of virtue and correctness in relation to the concurrence of their date to that supplied by Daft.ie".

    What I actually did was identify Daft as the paradigm of virtue and correctness and correctly pointed out that the CSO data coincidently concurs with Dafts most recent report. Everybody (including myself) has an agenda and / or vested interest and your own agenda seems to be to selectively pick and choose data that backs up your own point of view.

    I have no doubt that if the Daft report was showing a decrease in rents you would be heralding it as proof positive that the market was deteriorating further. However when it actaully shows the market making a small climb in the right direction you dismiss it! The double standards of some people commenting on these reports never fails to amaze me.

    Keep dreaming maybe property will contimue its fall into the abyss and they will be giving houses away for free in the not too distant future.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: open tweet Date: Thursday November 17, 2011 @08:52PM

    Dear David,

    It is with love and affection that i write to you. Momma is sick with the consumption and pa has had to sell Daisy the cow to meet the medical bills.

    Old Rupert next door says that he aint never seed dark times like these and he frightens me with all his talk of repossession and joblessness.

    Your brother Michael is nearly better, though he still has to wear the leg braces after his accident.......................

    Come on David, this is Ireland of today not Angelas Ashes. Stop trying to flog a dead horse.

    People are denouncing Daft's report because Dafts report doesn't reflect reality very well. Every one of Dafts reports over the past few years have had a positive spin. Why should believe the boy who cried wolf now. It was only in the last two quarters after continued conflicting press releases (Irish times property report, Irish Independent property supplement, My house magazine, English property investor magazine) from other well published independent reporters, that Daft started to realize that they were the only ones out of step.

    Have you tried to rent a property in Dublin. Well I have, and after hearing that my property would be easy to rent out because it is in a prime location and is well maintained, I decided to leave it up to the letting agency to do their "easy job". I received three calls from the letting agency over a three month period asking me would I consider dropping the monthly rental price. This after they told me that I should consider asking more for rent when I originally put the property up for lease. In the end I had to reduce my rent down from 1,800 euro a month to 1550 to attract a tenant. And after six months of grief from the tenant who should have been calling the letting agency with his problems instead of me, I had to further reduce rent down to 1500 euro/month. (Would you believe that the guy wouldn't even change the outside light and complained on grounds of Health and Safety). ( The letting agency said they sent a guy out to investigate why the light wasn't working. He came out during the day time and wrote a report detailing how the sensor on the light fitting was faulty. It doesn't have a sensor, it was switch activated)

    Now if there are any other people who have had similar problems with tennants and letting agency's please post here to let David know what the real world sounds like, because he obviously doesn't know.

    Otherwise David you and BoB should go to live in a rented house together. You would both keep each other very happy. Every day would be a happy day and all the newspapers would have happy stories in them. I wish I lived in a perfect world like you.


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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: David Date: Friday November 18, 2011 @10:19AM

    OT, Thank you for your indepth and quite comprehensive reply. I myself am also a LL and have no problem admitting it. You speak of experiences in the rental market over the last year. Well I can tell you from my own experience and that of other LL acquaintances that the present market (in Dublin anyway) is an improvement on 12 months ago. Rents are up, voids are down and the time taken to let a property is also shorter.

    The stock of properties available to rent is also declining and the Daft data clearly shows this happening over the last 12 months. It is inevitable with no new stock being built and little or no transactions in the sale market that the rental market would rebound to some extent and this is beginning to materialise. I let and look after my properties and have never had a propoerty empty for more that 1 month. Pitch the price correctly and ensure that the property is decorated and clean and it will rent (in Dublin anyway).

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Sunday November 20, 2011 @11:33PM

    house prices will almost certainly reach a 70 percent fall by the end of 2011
    I was one of the very few smug people who knew all this would end very dirty
    in 2003 long before all those handymen professors in ucd /now a largely diminished
    entiity / thankfully, i digress O YES the property market well there is an abundance of choice far too many for a market even still loans are next to impossible so more
    people can,t buy or cant afford there high mortage so they do the logical thing they rent THIS is the only logical reason rents are becoming sadisfactory for
    landlords and you know this is the way its going to continue, o and what did i do well now I rented a small bedsit its not located over an oil rich deposit but after selling a house in 2003 I bought 220 euros worth of gold

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: John Date: Tuesday November 15, 2011 @08:28PM

    mmmm...according to daft.ie

    September asking prices averaged @ 195k.
    November average asking rent 825pm

    825 x 12mth x 15yr = 148k

    Something not right here.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Raymond Date: Wednesday November 16, 2011 @03:02AM

    Ireland is going down the tubes. When will people wake-up and figure this out. Ireland is made up of 3 to 4 million people not 20 million.
    Property prices have to go back to 99. Why do people think property prices should rise. there is no reason in the world prices should rise in Ireland. Ireland is so over valued it's a joke.
    Cars, Houses,FOOD the list goes on. People in Ireland should walk out on thwe streets and protest this way of life and not accept it .


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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Tony P Date: Tuesday December 6, 2011 @11:04AM

    Raymond, I've travelled the world and lived in several countries, all have their bad points, most have have good points. There are more people living in poverty in the USA than you would expect from such a rich 'perfect' country. People in France and Germany pay exceedingly high taxes. etc. I could go on.
    We have the most generous social welfare system in the world, and a pretty good health system, have reasonable employment prospects (if not an unskilled labourer), we pay relatively low taxes, nobody dies in the streets or is homeless*, old people and disabled are cared for, everyone gets a generous pension. I prefer Ireland warts and all.
    If Ireland is so bad, why not just emigrate find somewhere better, (use the internet, its not censored here) and unlike most countries your Irish/EU citizenship allows you travel and pretty much anywhere. Over 90% of the worlds citizens would envy your position. Grow up.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: BoB Date: Wednesday November 16, 2011 @10:52AM

    The ususal complainers commenting here..lets accept the reports...it does seem to be positive or should be keep moaning and hope the economy never recovers..sure that would be great for everyone..cop on moaners or you will talk yourselves into an early grave and have more than a wasted decade

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Tony P Date: Wednesday November 16, 2011 @05:33PM

    Good report.
    I think everyone likes to see some sort of stability, no matter what metrics they are based on. It generates confidence in these turbulent times.

    Many of the points above are valid, the budget cuts will almost certainly apply downward pressure on average rents, however, not in areas of relatively high employment, i.e. urban areas.
    Post budget expect a greater polarisation of the 'Two Irelands'.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Raymond Date: Friday November 18, 2011 @01:19AM

    Who is COMPLAINING. Are you crazy. Most of the people in Ireland are broke, no money for Christmas etc,etc.
    I love people that are trying to put a positive spin on things in Ireland. Are you people kidding youself. There is nothing good about Ireland for the next 5 yrs at least.
    The quaility of life in Ireland is so bad at the moment. Hospidals and Schools are a disaster.
    People need to look at reality not the future. Ireland is in a hole for a LONG TIME
    Sorry to be the bearer of baddddddddddd news. Wake up


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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Dougal Maguire (very rev father) Date: Friday November 18, 2011 @09:27AM

    Firstly, I am a landlord (contrary to some opinions) this is not a crime, I supply a service to many people, same as any other business. I am over 35 years in this business, providing no hassle homes to hundreds over that period. They (the tenants) have to worry about nothing. They break the washing machine, I pay to fix it. They seal off the vents, never open a window or a curtain, hang wet clothes in the room and wonder why there is damp mould on the walls(all my fault of course). I have to pay to remedy it. Cigarette burns on furniture and carpets! sure thats only normal wear and tear( according to the prtb and threshold).
    I see from some comments to this report that the reduction in rent allowance is being welcomed. Be careful what you wish for, many landlords are on the edge, this will swing them over it. Many keys will be handed back, many RA tenants will be out of their homes, falling back on the state to house them directly. Can our local authorities handle this burden and all that goes with it? ie. the broken washing machines, self inflickted damp, cutting the grass, replacing the carpets, painting and decorating, I don`t think so. For private landlords there is a limit when low rent allied to rising costs(levies, service charges, USC, insurance, repairs/ maintenance) make it totally uneconomic to carry on.
    The private landlord is taking on the responsibility of the state, that is to ensure that everybody has a decent home to live in. If anybody thinks the state can do this better let me remind them of Ballymun, Southill etc in Limerick and various other local authority disasters. Provision of adequate RA has enabled people to move freely out of local authority estates and led to a better mix of all society, large scale reduction will lead us back to ghettoisation and the mistakes of the past. All this will come at a huge cost to the state that will make rent allowance look really cheap.
    Good news! all my rents are up over the last year and a half, all my units are fully let to really nice tenants (due to the huge demand for nice homes and the shortage of supply, I have been able to cherry pick my tenants). Am not getting the rents of 4 years ago, but getting there.
    Lets look forward! there is nothing free in this life, somebody, somewhere is payiny for it !

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: open tweet Date: Friday November 18, 2011 @11:50AM

    Really????? Your rents are up? Where is your property base?

    I simply can't believe it. By the way who do you use for letting. I am still having problems with the maintenance aspect of my letting agency. They say they will carry out any non structural maintenance 24 hours a day, but so far they have not lived up to their side of the agreement and as such I have to do most of the maintenance myself. That said, they do not say they will not carry out the maintenance, they just make it so awkward that I feel I have to do the jobs myself. However I only have two houses and four appartments.



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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Dougal Maguire(rev father) Date: Saturday November 19, 2011 @12:42AM

    My base is Cork city, southside, I do all lettings/viewings myself. As stated, it is my business. Maintenance I manage with a very hands on approach. As "David" stated earlier above, cleanliness, location(remember that word? much forgotten over the last decade) and a proper pricing structure will get you a long way.
    The sooner we get to the German system where tenants supply their own furniture etc the better, it would take most of the contentious issues out of the picture as well as concentrating the tenants minds, as this practice of moving willy nilly would now become a serious cost factor to them.
    We really need to look at housing and the provision of same seriously, not just getting into a rant. It cannot go on that housing is cheaper to buy/rent than the cost of constructing it. This is real short term ecoomics. Wether people like it or not, our urban areas are expirencing an increasing population, this is going to further accelerate with the closure of rural hospitals, barracks, pubs, shops, etc. Unfortunately, rural Ireland is unsustainable, remember to, to factor in ever increasing transport costs to the equation.
    This is where our Planners have really let us down, ignoring the rules, yes rules! of sustainability in the persuit of development levies and income from hoped for commercial rates to pay for their exorbitant salaries and pensions. These were the people, the benchmarked professional public servants who should have had the courage, as they did have the power, to shout stop! Their silence was deafening. Remember again, these planners were the paid, public watchdogs.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: STUPID.IE Date: Friday November 18, 2011 @09:42PM



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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Friday November 18, 2011 @02:26PM


    YOu are the glass half empty guy for sure..maybe you are hurting..but you need to wake up to the fact that the main reason Ireland is still suffering is because people are not spending....and saving too much...I know I have saved more in the past 3 years than the past 15..and with all your negativity no one will spend ..and the economy will take longer to recover..but maybe that is what you want?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Porter Supper Date: Friday November 18, 2011 @05:19PM

    VAT going up.

    More tax.

    Companies still reducing salaries.

    Tougher Budget in December.

    100,000 Mortgages in arrears.

    Emigration up 4% in 2011.

    Consumer consensus at an all time low.

    Etc, etc, etc......

    These are facts.

    How can rents, property prices increase under such circumstances.
    There is no glass half empty. It’s almost empty. The situation is unsustainable, prices have to come down.

    Take your heads out of the sand and realise the truth. Were not screwed, but were in a very competitive position.

    Property investors can offer a price and refuse at will. This does not help excite the market, it is the current market.

    People who try to talk up the market are commendable only in so far as the boy with his finger in the Dam is commendable. Inevitably property prices will continue to fall until consumer attitudes change. More people are saving now than ever before. This savings base is being eroded by rising costs (taxes, VAT, reducing salaries etc.).

    Those who say different only prove my point. Check out the espoused CSO for statistics on employment, emigration and property price data. I know that they have been criticised for the value of their data on several occasions now. I had to check this out after reading an earlier blog, and it is true. “Irish eyes are closed” I think was the name of one report. It makes very interesting reading for those who claim that the property market will resurge any time soon.

    I do think we will recover, but I think we will have to get used to some painful facts.

    1. Property prices/rents will continue to decline.

    2. Foreign workers returning home and Irish people emigrating only releases more property onto the market.

    3. Austerity in Ireland will continue until 2015 at a minimum. This means that there will be less money in people’s pockets.

    4. Irish properties are therefore less attractive to foreign investors and Irish investors on the whole.

    That’s my point well made with obvious and documented data.

    If you can poke holes in my arguments please feel free to do so. I would love to see positive growth in property prices. My house is now €200k in negative equity. That means if I sold my house now I would still have a repayment of €140K on my original mortgage. Many of my friends are in the same boat. I simply cannot afford to sell.

    I wish I could.

    Honest facts. No rubbish spin.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Ann Keogh Date: Monday November 21, 2011 @09:34AM

    I am a full time renter. I have been renting since 2007 when I was lucky enough to sell my house in Rathfarnham, Dublin. I say lucky because I got a reasonably good price for my house at the time. I bought off the plans and sold with the intention of buying a four bedroom house for our family.
    My husband and I decided to rent long term when we found a newly refurbished four bedroom house up for rent closer to our boy’s school in Ballyroan. Our landlord works abroad and has given us a buying option on the property.
    Our rent was €1400/pm but now it is €1250/pm month after we negotiated a three year deal where my husband will carry out any painting or maintenance needed on the property.
    I believe this is the way to go. I read above that some landlords are having problems with these issues. I feel that if the responsibility was passed onto the tenant with the associated cost savings/ rewards then more properties would be better maintained and the contracts could be extended which in most cases benefit both parties.
    Last year we had to pay €2200 to have the gutters replaced around the house after the snow. This might sound expensive at first, but when you factor in the average savings on rent we are still better off and the problem didn't cause our landlord any bother at all. All we had to do was to send a copy of the invoices to the landlord for his records.

    We do intend to get back into the market, but while property prices are dropping by a multiple of our annual rent it does not make sense. Perhaps renting is the only way to go.

    Of course we have been very lucky with our landlord who is open to negotiation. The property we moved into was clean, dry and well insulated. We also have off street parking and the option of buying in the long term. I understand that many properties are not let in such good condition. We had to look around for four months before we found our house. I would advise more people to do the same. Try to find an understanding landlord. Make a good business case and benefit from a good mutual deal. Most landlords would prefer security of tenure rather than having to re-lease the property several times over the course of a few years.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: paul Date: Monday November 21, 2011 @04:35PM

    I bought a 3 bed semi for 160000, I knocked a fair bit off deposite wise so my motgage is less then 500 euro a month. If I was to rent the house it would cost 900 euro a month, so in my case it made sense to buy.
    Renting is only good if you are single and are will to share with other people and put up with other peoples head wrecking habits. For a family it makes no sense to rent as a mortgage would cost less then renting the house in most cases.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Michael Webb Date: Wednesday November 23, 2011 @04:23PM

    Why are the historical indices different from report to report|? I had always assumed that the base was an averave for 2007 = 100

    In Rental Q2 2011 the figures for 2010 were calculated as per the first number. Yet the figures quoted in Rental Q3 for 2010 are different and shown in brackets

    Jan 75.9 (75.9)
    Feb 75.3 (77.3)
    Mar 75.3 (77.7)
    Apr 74.8 (76.8)
    May 75.1 (76.3)
    Jun 74.5 (76.5)
    Jul 74.6 (75.9)
    Aug 75.3 (75.5)
    Sep 75.1 (76.1)
    Oct 75.3 (75.8)
    Nov 73.9 (76.4)
    Dec 73.9 (75.4)

    Which figure is correct?
    Why are they different from one report to the next?

    An answer from the writer please.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Daft Report Team Date: Wednesday November 23, 2011 @05:34PM

    Hi Michael,
    The figures have changed due to methodology employed, which is based on mix-adjusted hedonic regressions (as used in leading house price indices worldwide). This method effectively allows the researcher to break down the country into a large number of sub-markets, the price level of which is then estimated before a national average is built back up from these regional figures.

    While in an index such as this, changes should only be made sparingly, due to the huge increase in the number of properties posted for rent on daft.ie since 2007, the decision was made earlier this year to incorporate this extra information wherever possible. Thus, instead of approximately 100 markets around the country in the underlying method, a system of about 300 markets was developed and has been used in this report. The result is that there are revisions to those periods where sufficient sample sizes allow the fullest possible regional disaggregation (i.e. from 2007 on).

    Ultimately, it's a trade-off between having complete comparability over time and understanding/using to the fullest extent possible the rich regional variation in current datasets. Hopefully you can agree that the benefit of the latter outweighed the cost of any small revisions that needed to be made to historical numbers.

    It is likely that there will be one further revision in the coming 12 months, when data from the 2011 Census allow the weights associated with various parts of the country to be updated. This is similar to what happens the basket underlying the CSO's Consumer Price Index, which is updated once every five years.

    The Report Team.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday November 24, 2011 @05:25PM

    Having become a landlord back in the early 90s, I have seen rents fall and rise - those who think rents are overpriced should look to comparable cities in the UK or France - our nearest neighbours - and they will see that they are similar . I think the problem is always the greedywho overspent during the celtic tiger era and did not save when they could and now blame landlords for their over spending and immaturity.

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  • what the hell

    Posted By: Elliptical Date: Monday November 28, 2011 @10:57AM

    I suggest adding a facebook like button for the blog!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Raymond Date: Sunday December 11, 2011 @02:25AM

    So you call saving is a life. What kind of a life do people have if all they are doing are saving money all the time .
    I live in Manhattan . I put away 40,000 dollars a year just for vacation that does not include going out to dinner 2 nights a week,broadway shows, opera and more..
    I know living in manhattan is a different world compared to Ireland but I could not live anywhere else.


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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Raymond Date: Saturday December 17, 2011 @08:17PM

    Does anyone know what postcodes are included in city centre rental prices?
    and which are south/north city? Is south all even except for the city centre included postcodes?

    Is west county dublin outside of the post codes? Much appreciated.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Ray Date: Saturday December 17, 2011 @02:50AM

    Is the reason for the altering of previous indexes from this quater to last quarter for previous existing data (eg Jan 2011 in Q2 report, and Jan 2011 in Q3 report)
    also due to the reasons given for previous year changes? ie: due to updated methods and increasing the number of submarket categories for analysis?

    If that is true, its therefore more correct to use these Q3 for Jan 2011, than the Q2 report?

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Raymond Date: Saturday December 17, 2011 @08:18PM

    The post from Raymond just before me is not mine! Im not Manhattan Raymond!

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: robert Date: Tuesday December 20, 2011 @01:22PM

    i have been renting for last eight years waiting to buy a house.
    i was paying €1200 for a 2 bed apartment in skerries five years ago that apartment is now €800 and it took eight weeks to rent at that price.
    im now renting a large 3 bed 3 bathroom house in stamullen co meath five minute from M1 motorway for €700.
    at the moment there are a large number of tennents who are waiting to buy a home at the bottom of the market.
    There are also more people emegrating so the rental market will decline in the not to distant future. i.e rents will drop.
    Within a fifty mile radious of m50 motorway there are now plenty of 3 bed houses semidetached from €48,500 to €75,000 these houses have fallen considerably in the last few months i have watched in some areas decrease by 30 percent in the last year alone.over supply and underdemand emmegration and problems getting a mortgage over the €100,000 mark.
    when i and others like me buy a home who will replace me as a tennent.
    The uk and ireland are now cutting down on illegal immeration and illigal immigrants who are now living here so there are more tennents out of the rental market.
    the rental market will take a hit once the housing market hits bottom.

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  • Re: The Daft Rental Report Q3 2011

    Posted By: Tony P Date: Wednesday January 4, 2012 @01:46PM

    Hi Robert,
    That may be true to some extent, however,
    1. Who is going to lend you the money?
    2. Your rent may be cheaper and less riskier than a mortgage for some time.
    3. Many reluctant landlords will be happy to sell the houses they are renting

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