Irish House Price Report Q1 2017 | Daft.ie

The figures from the latest Daft.ie House Price Report show a strengthening of house price inflation across the country. The year-on-year change in the average list price nationally was 9.4% in the first quarter of 2017, the highest it has been since the second quarter of 2015

Then, inflation was on the way down - from a high of over 15% - as the impact of the Central Bank mortgage rules was kicking in. But after reaching just 6.1% in early 2016, inflation has risen again. That upward pressure is entirely down to Dublin. The inflation rate outside the capital is more or less the same now (9.9%) as a year ago (9.8%).

House Price Lowest Point

But in the capital, house price inflation has increased from 1.2% in early 2016 to 8.7% in early 2017. Of Dublin's 25 markets - the 22 postal districts, plus North, West and South County Dublin - a year ago, none of them had prices increasing by 10% or more. Indeed five areas, including some of most expensive, had falling prices in early 2016.

Now, however, none of the 25 markets in Dublin is experiencing falling prices, i.e. increased affordability. And nine of the markets are seeing double-digit increases. In a number of parts of the city - including Dublin 1, Dublin 7 and Dublin 10 - prices are now up over 70% from their lowest point. Across the city as a whole, prices increased by an average of €17,500 in the first three months of 2017 alone and have risen by almost €120,000 in the last five years.

But the problem is not just limited to Dublin. In the four other major cities, and across Leinster outside Dublin, the average increase in prices in the first three months of 2017 was €10,000. These regions too have seen the prices rise by 50% or more on average in the last few years.

The problem is least acute in Munster, Connacht and Ulster outside the cities. In these parts of the country, which make up about 37% of households, prices have risen by 30% since the start of 2014. But, with the exception of the final three months of 2014, 2015 and 2016 - when the market goes into hibernation - prices have risen in each quarter since the start of 2014

Most and least expensive areas

It does look, though, for the moment that in the non-city parts of Munster, Connacht and Ulster, house price inflation has peaked. The graph accompanying this commentary shows the year-on-year increase in house prices, by region, since the start of 2013, when the Dublin market bottomed out. It shows successive waves of house price inflation. The first, in Dublin, peaked in mid-2014 at 25%, but cooling dramatically once Central Bank rules were brought in in early 2015. The second is in the rest of Leinster, at over 20% in early 2015, as those priced out of the Dublin market moved further out.

The third wave can be seen in the "Other Cities" category - which includes Cork, Galway, Limerick and Waterford. Inflation in this market peaked in late 2015, again at over 20%. In these locations, the Central Bank rules meant in effect only a loan-to-value restriction and not a loan-to-income restriction, as prices were (and remain) significantly lower, even though incomes do not vary nearly as much.

The final two regions shown - Munster and Connacht-Ulster - have far less dramatic peaks in inflation, 14% in late 2015 in Munster and 12% in mid-2016 in Connacht-Ulster. Not only were these peaks less dramatic than the 20%-plus seen elsewhere, in both these regions, inflation appears to be subsiding: it is 7% in Munster and 9% in Connacht-Ulster.

Most and least expensive areas

However, elsewhere in the country, house price inflation has re-emerged as a problem in the first few months of 2017. This is consistent with the obvious consequence of the significant stimulus to demand given in late 2016. Both the change in mortgage rules for first-time buyers and the "Help-to-Buy" scheme make it easier for first-time buyers - by far the largest chunk of the market - to bid higher prices.

It is unfortunate that the primary focus of policy efforts late last year, when it came to the housing market, was to further stimulate demand and prices, rather than supply and quantities. Adding up the four components of demand - obsolescence, falling household size, natural increase and net migration - it is clear that the country needs at least 40,000 and in reality probably 50,000 homes per year. But in recent years, the number of new homes built has been at most one quarter of that.

Given that huge shortfall - one that has been evident now in the housing market since 2011 - it is incumbent on policymakers to focus their efforts on increasing housing supply where it is needed. And given the evidence from this report and other sources, that demand is concentrated in and around Ireland's cities.

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Discuss This Article

  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: 2Pack Date: Monday April 3, 2017 @09:31PM

    Good Man Ronan you sensible economist you!

    2Pack

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday April 4, 2017 @01:07PM

    How can you say an average house price in Wicklow is €295k, are you just basing this on Greystones!!!.
    Try an area like Rathdrum, houses bought there in 2007 for €380k for a 3 bed semi and you would struggle to get €215k for it today eventhough it is serviced by a train & not far from the N11, so tell me how you came up with €295k & what is rest of Co. Wicklow doing wrong???.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday April 4, 2017 @03:21PM

    I totally agree with you, houses in my area were sold for 317.000 in 2007, this year the asking price is 170.000, so where is the dramatic price increase they are writing about. The house is minutes from M1 and Dublin Airport.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Simon Date: Tuesday April 4, 2017 @05:57PM

    In the time you asked the questions about the figures, the prices have gone up by another thousand euros. What are ye waiting for?

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday April 4, 2017 @09:53PM

    What has been the increase in price for a 1970 3 bed. semi in Carrickmacross since October, 2014

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: 2Pack Date: Wednesday April 5, 2017 @01:56AM

    Irish house price rises are spotty. Dreadfully so as some posters have said.

    Rathdrum is too far away from jobs that might pay off a €380k mortgage. Once Facebook move their EMEA HQ to Rathdrum then that will all change.

    Meanwhile we wait, like most of Ireland does.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Joe Date: Thursday April 6, 2017 @05:03PM

    I was just speaking to an EA. He told me that by the end of 2017 people are going to be climbing over each other to buy a house.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday April 6, 2017 @06:40PM

    How is Brexit impacting the market?

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Joe Date: Friday April 7, 2017 @12:41PM

    Good point about Brexit, Maybe it needs an article done on it. It must surely have downward pressure short term as Sterling weakens. In the long term it may prove to be good but that is a far away point . I can't see British buyers rubbing their hands at bargains in rural areas if they don't get so much Euro for their Pound.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Sunday April 9, 2017 @04:45PM

    It's brilliant. Making money while you sleep each night feels gooooood. I pity the renter's paying someone's mortgage and missing all this free money. I confidentialy predict prices will double in 5 years. All aboard!!! This train is leaving the station.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday April 13, 2017 @11:32AM

    Houses selling in months, weeks and sometimes days. A few years ago it would take years to sell. The market has changed and is continuing to change. House prices will rise, and rise significantly in many areas, and here is one reason....

    Houses in my area are still 50% below peak prices, but rising. With the exception of a few areas, Dublin etc. house prices are extremely good value, tell me what else that is half the price of what it was 10 years ago!!

    Potential savings of €100,000+ on peak prices, That's a once in a lifetime opportunity.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Sunday April 23, 2017 @12:42PM

    Many homes are available for less than half what they would cost to build again. Our younger generation are sleepwalking into oblivion. The financially savy are cleaning up on buy to let whilst the youngsters play on their phones. They wake up in they thirties or early fourties...........bank of mum and dad to the rescue.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Bela Date: Tuesday April 25, 2017 @10:10PM

    The point is: current home owners believe the price in 2007 is the peak price, but the truth is, that was a high spike.
    The real value of the house I would guess about 30% less than it was in 2007. So if you bought a house in 2007 than you are a looser.

    Also last 3 years all estate agency tell tales about increasing demand. But they just pushing up prices.
    You know what happened. Everyone seen: no one was able to sell house during crisis. but from other hand: No one was able to buy a house.
    So basically that is why there was a spike on demand.

    Just check the year-on-year chart if you see Dublin house prices increased only a few percentage between 2015Q3 and 2016Q3. There was a significant fall since 2014Q3.
    Why? Because the demand is not that high as estate agencies say.
    And you can see about 8% increase from 2016Q4 that nothing else just the 20k support from government to first time buyers.

    Just calculate it:
    Previous year there was about 3% year-to-year inflation.
    8%-3%=5%.
    Average house price in Dublin Co: 400k.
    5% of 400k equal 20k (such a big surprise)

    So the question is, if government want to "boost" estate industry on year 2018 they will have to increase support to 40k?

    If you think I do not know what I am talking about, than just ask from your-self, why government does "help" for market if there is no problem?
    Also in 2007: What estate agencies did estimate? House prices will increase or decrease?

    My sort therm prognosis for the next year: Dublin house price inflation will fall back under 3%.(and this is the positive prognosis)

    About brexit: Most of the British companies looking for new base in Germany and French, just check HR reports. So Ireland should not expect to much capital from UK. Also Pound has not that much power as it have had a years ago.
    On other hand the UK is the biggest market for Irish export, and there is a good chance to loose this market or at least gain some disadvantage. Are you all sure the advantage of brexit will be more than disadvantage?

    You can think I want to freak you out, but my point is to avoid the next crisis. If no crisis than I won't loose my job.
    So instead of pushing up prices government should consider to take same real action to control Irish estate market.

    Before you think increasing house prices is good for Ireland, that is not true.
    It is not good for house sellers (ask those seller that had to sell their houses in 2012)
    It is not good for house buyers (ask those who bought house in 2007)
    And not good for an average Irish people(ask those who lost there job during crisis)

    Changing house prices only good for those people who manipulate it.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Faisal Date: Monday May 1, 2017 @06:40PM

    Hello Bela, what would Advise for now, would you advise to buy now in Ireland or wait until brexit happen

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Bela Date: Tuesday April 25, 2017 @10:28PM

    One more thing:
    Still there are more than 110k Polish people in this country.(most of them rent house)
    During last few years only one thing was not increased, the minimum salary. (you can say there was 0.7euro increase two years ago, but that is basically means about €20(-15 PRSI) for a week)
    Majority of these people work on minimum salary.
    What will happen if another 60-80k people leave the country?

    I would say minimum salary must be raised very soon otherwise people who can't afford Irish rent prices will leave the country.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday April 27, 2017 @10:23PM

    Your views are wishful thinking. You want more money for the same work and too live in a nice home provided by a landlord who makes no profit. Do you see the problem?

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Bela Date: Saturday April 29, 2017 @02:06PM

    I live in house(that has quality under any EU standard) that landlord did not spend any money at all since I live here. (thanks for shine house and non-profit service)

    My opinion landlords had the profit 5 years ago. They raise rent every single year.
    Minimum salary was not really raised. These are facts.

    Also please do not describe my working moral. I am working much harder then my colleagues. I am the first in the building at the morning and I am the last at the evening, just because I love my job.
    And I actually get more than 30% less as my colleague in the same position and do half that I do.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Boris Date: Saturday April 29, 2017 @12:15AM

    I am from Lithuania and completely agree with Bela.Mostly people in Ireland has no knowledge about economy situation in Poland.Salaries on most places,for middle qualified work force is 700-800 euros per month home.Minimal wage in Dublin for couple is 3000 income per month.3000 minus rent,they could come back to Poland straight away and get same money there if they has money for buying own apartments.3000 minus 1600 for rent in Dublin is 1400,same they will have in Poland.For that reason,many people from Poland,started leave Ireland.Economy of Poland growing,life is a lot more cheaper than in Ireland.I worked with 12 guys from Poland,they all left Ireland during recesion and many of them happy in Poland now.There is some economy problems in Lithuania,but government started working hard.2-3 more years ,many emigrants will leave Ireland.Get ready.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Bela Date: Saturday April 29, 2017 @02:17PM

    I do not expect from landlord to do not make profit.

    I just expect landlords to play fair game, and understand the consecquences of they decison.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday May 2, 2017 @12:23PM

    Fair? whats fair about a property price collapse? you expect them to loose money then have a moral conscience. They will put up rent until nobody is interested in living in the property. Its market forces. Perhaps you should consider buying ..... then you shoulder some risk yourself.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Bela Date: Tuesday May 2, 2017 @09:18PM

    Just for clarification. Market will collapse because landlords are not able to understand the basic fact, house can be rented if there are tenants. If you make an environment for tenants that does not suit them, than they will leave.

    The last 5 years From tenants view point:
    Salary was not raised.
    Everything else were raised.

    The decision is yours.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Wednesday May 3, 2017 @11:30AM

    You seem to think landlords are all somehow linked and act as one unit. Its the market. If demand for rented property falls then rent falls and vice versa. If thousands of migrants go elsewhere maybe rents will fall. I would not count on it though. Perhaps you should consider areas such as Ballyconnel. A river view apartment, balcony overlooking the marina, fully furnished 2 bedrooms, 450 per month. Employment is plentiful and growing, vibrant community and the ability to travel into the North and take advantage of the strong Euro rate and lower shop prices!

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Bela Date: Wednesday May 3, 2017 @09:08PM

    Thank you for your reply.

    First of all, I do not feel fair to compare my global statement to you unique specific extreme statement.

    Just because there are a few house in all Ireland for €400, that does not mean all house are for €400. Also the problem is not up to those landlords who ask 10% on the €400.
    That was basically the same kind of "statistic" that I have mentioned earlier.

    On the other point, about communication on Landlords side. Maybe you are a landlord who does not know about it, but have you ever heard about Acquaint?

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Thursday May 4, 2017 @03:54PM

    If a landlord invests 300k in a property to let, he needs to get 6% per annum yield minimum. That means 18k per annum or 1500 per month rent. He pays the interest on the mortgage, service charges, taxes, accountancy, maintenance, renewals, etc from the rent and little is left. Add tenants who don't pay, wreck the place, give grief, empty periods between rentals and it's even worse. The landlord is in it for the very long term, relying upon inflation to raise the rent and the value of the underlying property to justify their risk and investment. Speaking as a landlord myself those who are good tenants make me feel less inclined to raise rent. Those tenants who have no respect will be the first to get raised. If you don't like it buy your own home.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Bela Date: Thursday May 4, 2017 @08:16PM

    When you buy a house for 300k than you invest 30k, not 300K.
    The house's value is the 300k. You had only 30K in your packet. (or at least the majority of the landlords buy house as investment, not out of the pocket)

    Mortgage on 270k for 30 year is about €1210.5(based on online calculator)

    In fact your tenant who pay €1500, not you. So basically your tenant buy a house for you. Maybe it would wort to take care of it.

    Summary:
    - Invest 30k
    - 30 year later you have a house with value 300k.
    - You got every month €300 from your tenant. During a year €3600.
    (by the way the 3% interest that you could get for your 30k would be only €900 for a year)

    And you are complaining about risk and tax? There is no anything else on the market that can give you the same profit with this level of risk.

    Also I would like to highlight over and over again, I am not suggesting to give up the profit, I am only suggesting to give up the 10% raise.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Bela Date: Friday May 5, 2017 @08:57AM

    Let's put this to a different approach:

    You have 30K

    Option A: take to the bank and you will get (maximum)3% interest
    After 30 year you will have 72817(together with the 30k capital)(-tax, -handling fee)


    Option B: You buy a house
    You will have:
    30000
    +30*12*1500=540000
    -tax(as far as I know you have to pay only if you have more than 11k from rent)4000*30=120000
    -insurance=30*350=10500
    -estate agency 30*1000=30000(I am not sure what money do you pay for your agency)
    -mortgage interest 162000

    Your total will be
    247k

    72k VS 247k on 30k capital?

    I did not count repairs and this kind of costs as lot of landlords do not do any repairs. Also in case if they do, they have option to claim back a lot from tax or from insurance.

    E.g.: you are entitled to claim 75% of your annual mortgage interest
    So you pay “only one” from tax or interest :) So my opinion, I have under calculated this. (I would not been surprised on 120k extra above my calculation)

    I can believe it looks very sad when you receive 1500 on a month, and you have to pay out 1300, but you forget the fact, at the very end you have a house that worth 300k.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Friday May 5, 2017 @05:08PM

    Or put it another way............... Property prices fall from 300 to 200k, you still over the bank 270k, rents fall significantly and you've lost 70k and are substantially subsidising your tenants living costs, trapped by negative equity. It's not all risk free. At the drop of a hat interest rates can shoot up, legislation changes, taxation changes etc. can also spoil the party. As for 1500 per month paying off the mortgage ...... Dream on. As I said it only pays the interest, costs and you rely upon inflation to make any return. You are right 10% deposit is needed so yes you are investing 30k on a 300,000 property and you returns are based upon that amount. Many landlords nearly went bankrupt in the crash, many actually did! Those that hung on or those brave enough to invest deserve to make profits.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Boris Date: Friday May 5, 2017 @10:11PM

    You play games on market were is huge competition,today is 2017,not 2000,and another Eastern Europe does not exist anymore.Today renting market alive just because banks does not give mortgages very easy as before and there is still plenty immigrants from Eastern Europe.How market will looks like,when Poland will make similar progress like Ireland and many people from Poland will back to Poland,at same time when irish will continue emigrate to Australia ? How much your houses ,which you buy for renting will worth in next 2-3 years ? Today buyers for renting try jump to last wagon on train,which is overloaded.Time start to understand,that renting business is dead and time to understand that creating product,you creating money ! Find market,get right machine and start printing product,because printing product you printing money ! Same as bakers making bread,making money ! The more players on renting market,the less profit you will get ! Builders who build house for sale,earn more than you buy them house for rent ! Houses overpriced,wages are too low ! The bigger the renting price and smaller the wage,the more people leaving country ! Game over !

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: charlie Date: Saturday May 6, 2017 @10:33AM

    I have a 3 bedroom house in the country in monaghan do you think now is a good time to sell or should I wait a while

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: HousesAreNotStocks Date: Saturday May 6, 2017 @11:01AM

    I was with your argument there, until the last line, 'deserve to make profits'. No you don't.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Sunday May 7, 2017 @12:09PM

    Deserve to make profit........ Why not. We live in a market economy. I have no wish to put up with communistic and socoilistic claptrap anymore. It's government interferrence in the market which has brought about the housing crisis in the country and further interferrence is likely to make matters worse. I look at such things not with despair but with a sense of how best to seek my fortune in light of government stupidity and the failings of my fellow countrymen. Some people just like to moan, give up and expect the world to hand it to them on a plate. Why should I not profit from such plonks? The world does not work that way, so I will happily take 40% of their income and provide the roof over their heads that they are incapable of providing for themselves. Every town has a bookies, every property I let buy sky TV, the ring me on I phones, the property bins are stuffed with carryout food packaging and beer find. That's why they rent. They are inadequate and pathetic so I take their wages or benefits and why not. Do they deserve better? They squander their opportunity and it's their fault.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Eugene Date: Friday June 30, 2017 @01:27PM

    Market economy? We've just spent billions bailing out banks. These nationalised banks have called in very few loans in arrears including those of the BTL lender. The tax payer is still paying that off. Nationalised developers are employed by the nationalised bad bank NAMA to hold onto property and land to keep prices high, in what is a capital subsidy to landlords, and just last year the taxpayer gifted delelopers and landlords more money with a "first time buyers grant" designed to push up the price of capital. Besides that its a free market.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Terence Date: Sunday May 7, 2017 @10:21PM

    Market economies are just that, - you aren't able to make a profit, then you 'deserve' to make a loss.Seems its not just the tenants who moan a lot. If I were making a lot of money out of being a landlord, I wouldn't post on the internet about how hard it is to .. make money.

    Government 'interference' if it were 'socoilistic' , would be to build houses and have them owned by the council and a significant number allocated to social housing. Thus ending the parasitic nature of landlordism in Ireland which never left with the British unfortunately.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Monday May 8, 2017 @09:09AM

    As usual, let's blame the British! Landlords, such as me are parasites, quite right. I am commenting, not moaning. I seek to show the reality perhaps in the hope that a casual reader may open their eyes and.see the truth. I can buy, today, away from major cities, beautiful homes for less than half the cost of building them. 4 bedroom semi-detached, red brick, built 10 years ago in a lovely employment rich town.?.?....... Ballyconnell, county Cavan. Euro 70,000, on this site!

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Interested Date: Monday May 8, 2017 @10:54AM

    When will we be able to view the Rental Report Q1 2017

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Bela Date: Monday May 8, 2017 @01:16PM

    Answer to: Friday May 5, 2017 @05:08PM

    You have got the point. A landlord have a risk only if there is a crisis.
    So it is extremely important to understand what can generate a crisis, and what can be done to avoid it.

    So as far as I see, the landlords interest to do not exhaust their tenants.

    Government realized this and they create pressure zones. It has the job to defend landlords.
    The only question is: will landlords understand the fact, it is for them, not against them.

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Monday May 8, 2017 @02:45PM

    Rent pressure zones are flawed and an election ploy NOT a solution. They will merely limit new building and additional rental properties coming into the marketplace. They do not tackle demand and further limit supply. Some tenants win short term, some landlords loose short term them BOOM, economic cleansing forcing the poor from desirable locations will continue with gusto!

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Bela Date: Monday May 8, 2017 @09:15PM

    Reply to: Monday May 8, 2017 @02:45PM

    I see different, if there is crisis than this won't motivate anyone to build new house.

    So the pressure zones was the right decision.

    May I ask what do you think what was the problem in 2008? just because there was no pressure zone or any kind of control at that time, and we did see what happened.

    Also I would not be so optimist about demand. If I am correct Independent said there are about 10000 less houses on market that would be needed.(20k house hunters chase 10k homes)
    Net emigration was - 3000 on last year, this year it will be possible -10000.... and lot of new houses coming. Do you still believe you do not need your tenants?

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  • Re: Irish House Price Report Q1 2017

    Posted By: Anonymous Poster Date: Tuesday May 9, 2017 @11:31PM

    The crash was caused by a credit crunch. Mortgage availability and commercial mortgages for buy to let became incredibly hard to secure or renogiotiate. Prices collapsed, keys handed back, developers bust and banks became landlords!

    The overall economy slowed into crisis, government spending in infrastructure demolished, investment from firms collapsed, a freeze on employment and a freeze on wages soon followed. People's confidence was crushed.

    Now economic growth has returned, demographic trends are established leading to more households becoming necessary for the same population (smaller household size) and coupled with a huge lag in new building means demand for property is exploding. Price increase and rent increases are the result. Net migration as you say is an issue but as unemployment falls and Brexit brings new opportunities with hundreds of banking jobs etc. I suggest migration will increase both from Europe, Britain and many returning Irish who left when the crisis began.

    I do hope former Eastern block countries finally grow and develop so that young people in these countries have a future without migrating elsewhere and those who want to return can do so. They are at the same stage as Ireland was in the 1980's and hopefully will generate their own tiger economies.

    Being realistic for Ireland the economy is well placed to resurrect the Tiger. Inflation will return as will wage growth and new infrastructure development.

    In Britain in 1992 the property market collapsed. It took 7 years to see prices bottom out but the next seven brought prices up to new records. Seven years of feast followed by seven years of famine! Always the same!

    The Ireland feast period began in 2014 and will run until 2021. Expect 10% growth in prices for each of the next 4 years. In 2021 prices may fall back a little then stagnate until 2028 then the cycle will begin again!

    Tax treatment on development land means land banks become available en masse in 2019 and a building boom will get established from 2019 it's this new supply that will stagnate the market.

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